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Expert Monday Night Football betting predictions, best MNF prop bets, and odds analysis for Week 1. Free Monday Night Football picks and player props for tonight's game.
Hello everybody, and welcome to Week 1's edition of Monday Night Football bets and props! The NFL season is finally kicking off this week, and we here at RotoBaller could not be more thrilled to bring you some of the best content in the market. We are excited to bring betting content to all those interested in every slate in any given week.
This weekly article will focus on the Monday night slate, and I will provide several different betting angles for the games scheduled. I will typically provide at least one play on the game's total or spread, as well as at least three player or game props. Although this article will be published each week on Monday mornings, you can always feel free to check out our Discord Channel to see plays posted throughout the week.
This week's matchup features the Minnesota Vikings at the Chicago Bears, and should provide plenty of goodies for us to try and take advantage of. Both of these teams have soft spots in their defense that we can look to take advantage of as well. Without further delay, let's get into tonight's picks for Week 1 of Monday Night Football!
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Week 1 Monday Night Football Betting Odds
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Vikings -1.5
Total: 43.5
Monday Night Football is kicking this season off with a solid NFC North rivalry between the Vikings and the Bears. While the Vikings hope to build on a very successful 2024 campaign with their "first-year" quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, the Bears hope Caleb Williams takes the next step in their offense and leads his team to a playoff birth.
Week 1 Monday Night Football Betting Picks
While I personally do not expect either of these teams to pose a serious threat to win the NFC North, many people are high on McCarthy and the Vikings this year, enough so that I am rather surprised that this spread is currently sitting at just -1 in favor of Minnesota. That being said, home underdogs playing a game within their division in Week 1 tend to have a ton of success covering the spread.
This suggests that we should back the Bears in this spot, and a case can certainly be made for them to cover the game and win it outright. One of my key principles when backing a dog is having the belief that they can win the game outright, and that is the case here with Chicago.
Williams had a strong rookie campaign in which he threw for over 3,500 yards and had 20 touchdowns to just six interceptions. One of his best games of the season came at home against the Vikings, in which he threw for 343 passing yards and two touchdowns to no picks. The Bears lost that game 30-27 in overtime, but gave the Vikings a good run.
They should be able to move the ball again through the air against this Vikings defense that allowed the third-most passing yards to the quarterback position in 2024. Even if the Bears get down in this game, they should still be able to keep it within striking distance and have a solid shot to win this one at home.
The Pick: Bears ML (+100 DraftKings)
Week 1 Monday Night Football Player Props
Caleb Williams OVER 220.5 passing yards (-111 DraftKings)
Recommending Williams over his passing prop should come as no surprise, given the information provided above. The Vikings were absolutely horrific against the quarterback position in 2024. Overall, they allowed quarterbacks to throw for an average of nearly 262 passing yards per game, which ranked them third-worst in the league.
Williams also managed to combine for 531 passing yards in his two games against the Vikings. In his home game against Minnesota, Williams threw for 340 passing yards, which was the second-most passing yards he had in any game of the season. Additionally, Williams threw for 225+ in four of his final eight games in 2024.
Williams and the Bears might also be forced to move the ball through the air a bit, as this was a Vikings defense that allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to the running back position in 2024. They also allowed just 4.1 YPC to the position in 2024. Bears running back D'Andre Swift was no exception to this stat as he averaged just 3.4 YPC on 32 carries in his two contests against the Vikings.
In his first #NFLPreseason action under new head coach Ben Johnson, #DaBears Caleb Williams looked more comfortable and shined in throwing for 107 yards and a TD:#NFL pic.twitter.com/luzLLhFJjq
— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) August 18, 2025
D.J. Moore OVER 5.5 receptions (+100 DraftKings)
Since we like Williams and the Bears' passing game in this contest, it only makes sense to pair him up with one of his wide receivers in Moore. Moore was big down the stretch for the Bears and saw a ton of volume. Over the final eight games of the season, Moore averaged over nine targets per game and managed to haul in an average of over seven receptions per game.
In his two contests against the Vikings, Moore averaged nearly eight targets and eight receptions per game. This is not all that surprising, as the Vikings allowed the second-most targets to wide receivers per game at nearly 24 targets, and allowed the most receptions to wide receivers at 15 receptions per game. This should be a great spot to get Moore over 5.5 receptions, and we are getting pretty good odds at even money.
Jordan Mason ANYTIME touchdown scorer (+170 DraftKings)
The Vikings brought in Jordan Mason from the 49ers this offseason, and all accounts are that he will be used pretty regularly around the goal line. This should be good news for Vikings and Mason against a Bears' defense that allowed 18 rushing touchdowns to the running back position, which was tied for the most in the league.
Mason performed well in 2024 for the 49ers, especially in the red zone. Overall, he carried the ball 34 times in the red zone across 12 games played for the 49ers. He also managed to find the end zone in three of his first four games played last season.
Minnesota should come out looking to run the ball with a first-year quarterback at the helm against this Bears' run defense, and why wouldn't they? In 2024, the Bears ranked second-worst in terms of total rushing yards allowed to the running back position. They also allowed running backs to rack up 4.9 YPC on the season. While I can't quite get on board with Mason's rushing yards prop due to the uncertainty of the backfield, it does seem likely he will be regularly involved near the goal line.
J.J. McCarthy UNDER 218.5 passing yards (-113 DraftKings)
Since I feel good about the Vikings coming out and looking to establish the run in this game, it would make sense to recommend McCarthy under his current passing yards prop set at 218.5. I know a lot of folks are high on McCarthy coming into this season, and he could end up doing just fine, but traveling on the road to Soldier Field at night in the first start of his career could prove to be a bit challenging.
While the Bears ranked poorly against the run in 2024, as aforementioned, they were actually quite adept against the pass. Overall, they allowed quarterbacks to throw for an average of 232 passing yards per game. This was good enough to rank them in the top half of the league and could be just good enough to keep McCarthy under his total in this game.
