MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/7/2025)

September 7, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/7/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Yordan Alvarez, Brent Rooker, Kerry Carpenter, and Jazz Chisholm.

I managed to hit one of five props yesterday, with Matt Olson coming through with a monster 472-foot bomb off Bryce Miller. However, the process was solid as the Athletics scored 17 runs without a Langeliers homer, and I had the wrong "Lowe" against Tanner Bibee as Josh (not Brandon) homered for the Rays.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use them in a round-robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, September 7, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/7/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, September 7:

• Jazz Chisholm, New York Yankees
• Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
• Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
• Brent Rooker, Athletics

Jazz Chisholm OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 DraftKings)

I want to start today by picking on Mad Max Scherzer, who, in his old age, has become a bit of a liability out there in terms of giving up home runs. Scherzer is allowing 1.2 home runs per start over his last ten starts, including four bombs in his last two outings.

He's getting lit up by lefties mainly, allowing a .503 SLG and 15.2% Barrel% to them. Ten home runs to left-handers doesn't sound bad, but consider that Scherzer has only started 13 games for Toronto. Ten homers against 154 batters faced from the left side means he's giving up a long ball to a lefty every 15 times he sees one - yikes!

Now it just comes down to choosing either Jazz Chisholm or Cody Bellinger. Both hitters have some great BvP against Scherzer, and it's quite recent, too. Jazz has homered twice off Scherzer this season in two different games, while Bellinger has homered and doubled twice off him in their last meeting.

Ultimately, it comes down to the numbers for me, and Jazz just has slightly better metrics overall, especially against Max's combo of four-seamer, curveball, and slider.

The wind is blowing out to left field just slightly, but Jazz shouldn't need much help; he's been stinging the ball for a while now.

Kerry Carpenter OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings)

Anytime that Carpenter matches up with an RHP who has HR issues, I am instantly interested. This matchup certainly qualifies as Davis Martin takes the mound for the White Sox. He's allowing a .211 ISO and 48% HardHit% to lefties this season, and has given up four homers in his last three starts.

KERRY CARPENTER SMASHES HIS 23RD HOME RUN OF THE 2025 SEASON 💣

pic.twitter.com/5OQxjU8XAC

— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔱𝔯𝔬𝔦𝔱 𝔗𝔦𝔪𝔢𝔰 📰 (@the_det_times) September 3, 2025

Carpenter has a compact, sweet home run swing and matches up well here against Martin's fastball/changeup-heavy approach. Look for Carp to be aggressive in attacking Martin's four-seamer and cutter, both of which have been hit hard this season.

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Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 DraftKings)

Yordan is red-hot right now as he homered yet again last night as the Astros pummeled the Rangers 11-0. He now has two home runs in his last three games and 12 hits in his last seven games. When it comes to using Alvarez against pitchers, I tend to throw the traditional splits out the window. He is a beast who can pummel pitchers of either handedness, and his splits against lefties this season are truly impressive as he's hitting .360 with a .720 SLG% and a whopping 23% barrel%.

Yordan Alvarez continues to annihilate baseballs 😮 pic.twitter.com/Pr8nF6IXld

— MLB (@MLB) September 7, 2025

It feels like a good day for lefty-on-lefty crime as Alvarez faces Patrick Corbin of the Rangers. While Corbin has had a decent bounce-back year in Texas, he's still a HR-prone pitcher with a very predictable pitch mix. Corbin throws 80% sinkers and sliders to hitters from both sides of the plate. Once upon his time, his slider was one of the best in baseball, but not anymore.

Alvarez crushes both sinkers and sliders from lefties, so the pitch mix analysis couldn't look any better. I love his odds at staying hot and driving a Corbin offering into the seats today.

Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 DraftKings)

So I swung and missed on Shea Langeliers yesterday, but he still had a great game, as did Brent Rooker and the other Athletics hitters. They knocked Yusei Kikuchi out of the game early and feasted on a bad Angels bullpen afterwards. At one point, the Angels brought in a position player (Scott Kingery) to pitch, and he was lobbing 30 mph rainbows into major league hitters; it was pretty comical.

Nick Kurtz hit a 447-foot home run on a 95.9 MPH fastball earlier in the game ...

He just whiffed at three 30+ MPH pitches and struck out 🤣 pic.twitter.com/gojlps7nVV

— MLB (@MLB) September 7, 2025

Well, it's going to be another rough day for the Angels, I think, as they hand the ball to rookie lefty Mitch Farris. While Farris looked good in his debut, he will have his hands full today against this lineup that has been crunching left-handed pitching.

I am going to move over to Rooker today for my HR call based on his numbers against Farris's top two pitches - the four-seamer and changeup. Rooker has elite splits against lefties this year, hitting .324, slugging .577, and a 14% Barrel% while only striking out 17% of the time.

Rooker makes excellent contact against lefties, and with Farris lacking a true "swing and miss" pitch, I think we will see him get good wood on some of his offerings today.

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