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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for September 14 and 15, 2023 Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets with the results from Week 3
It was another fun week in the last great college football season. A team that got thrashed by FCS Idaho nearly beat a Big 12(14) team. K-State fell in Columbia on a SEC-record 61-yard field goal. Blue-bloods Alabama, Georgia, Florida State, and Texas all struggled with supposed inferior competition. Upstarts Kansas and James Madison also struggled.
We have five games before the weekend this week. We have some really interesting ones heading into conference play. We have one more playoff game this week. This is what I will miss the most about college football once it kills itself by sheer gluttony after this season.
I won't pick FBS vs. FCS schools. Those lines usually aren't offered up until Friday at the earliest. Judging by what most FBS teams did to their inferior foes in Week 1, they won't be very lucrative for you either. Besides, I don't want to pick more 40+ point spreads than I have to. There aren't many of these left with most teams entering conference play.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 4 (9/21-22/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Darren Grainger is going to be a problem on the Surf Turf and I'm pretty sure the Chanticleers can't stop him. This feels high, especially when GSU has better than a puncher's chance of winning this outright. Give me the Panthers.
Wisconsin (-5.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This Purdue defense can't stop anyone. I'll take the Badgers.
North Carolina State (-9.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Hoos opened up a can on Maryland for the first eight minutes and disappeared for the last 52 last week. I expect a full revenge game for Brennan Armstrong here. Give me the Pack.
Boise State (-6.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I trust Jalen Mayden more than Taylen Green, but the Boise run game is a whole lot better and they have the better receivers. The Aztecs' D isn't as dominant this season. I think I'm going to take Boise here.
Air Force (-4.5) at San Jose State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Air Force dominated against a beaten-up Utah State team last week. They'll encounter more resistance this week and they're on the road. I'm still taking the Falcons, but lowering the bet. They're the best service academy this year and it's not particularly close.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from this season so far. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Navy at Memphis (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a game that Memphis should have dominated but they couldn't get out of their own way. Navy looked better than they have so far this year, but I'm not sure if that means much against the Memphis defense.
Virginia at Maryland (-15.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was feeling really good about this one for the first half of the first quarter, and then Virginia did Virginia things.
Army at UTSA (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If you ever wondered what UTSA would look like without Frank Harris, this was it and it wasn't pretty.
Utah State at Air Force (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Aggies offense looked decent without Cooper Legas, but decent doesn't make up for the defensive lapses.
(3) Florida State (-26.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boston College commits an inexplicable and completely unnecessary face mask on a great 3rd down stop to fall short of upsetting #3 FSU. They have had 18 penalties today, a program record.
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 16, 2023
I can't even claim that Boston College played a good game because they obviously didn't. Thomas Castellanos is going to be a really good player and you can't blame this loss on him. He's the one that got them to the brink of an upset after the Seminoles blew a 21-point lead. If I'm a Florida State fan, I'm more than a little concerned heading into Clemson week.
(7) Penn State (-14.5) at Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We're on the board! I should have gone higher on this. It's going to be a long season in Champaign.
(14) LSU (-9.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew I should have had more faith in Jayden Daniels. I figured LSU would pull away, but what I got instead was nearly total domination.
Jayden Daniels had 88.2% (30-34) completion percentage on Saturday vs Mississippi State.
That is the highest single-game mark in LSU history (min. 25 attempts). pic.twitter.com/HyoPZxO4kC
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 17, 2023
(15) Kansas State (-3.5) at Missouri: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I never like to lose, but when I do, I hope it's on a game as enjoyable as this. Damn, I miss the Big 8. Missouri mismanaged the clock as badly as any team could, then was ridiculed for lining up for a 61-yard field goal.
A WALK OFF FROM MEVIS pic.twitter.com/pzbcxkphn2
— William Quantrillie (@WillyQuantrill) September 16, 2023
It was an epic celebration in Columbia and a new SEC-record field goal. It was also the first time that Missouri beat a ranked non-conference opponent as an unranked team since 1990 (more Big 8!)
Liberty (-3.5) at Buffalo: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should have maxed this. Liberty burned me a couple of times last year, so I chickened out. How in the world did the Bulls hang with the Badgers in Madison?
Louisville (-10.5) vs. Indiana at Indianapolis: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was cussing a bit when it was 21-0 at the half. The Indiana defense showed up to give the offense a chance.
Georgia Southern at Wisconsin (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
My intuition was right. This was too high. Maybe if the Eagles wouldn't have turned it over SIX FREAKING TIMES... Davis Brin threw five interceptions and the Badgers finally started scoring on the miscues in the second half.
Wake Forest (-14.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wake was really fortunate not to lose this outright. The Monarchs were up 17-0 at halftime. Javon Harvey lit up the Wake secondary like the tree in Rockefeller Center.
Iowa State (-3.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cyclones played a poor game, but they still got hosed here. They "missed" a field goal in the fourth quarter that would have made the score 10-3. It was clearly good from any angle and it wasn't reviewed. Isn't that what review is for? This game should have gone into overtime. I have faith that Ohio still wouldn't have covered, but no one deserves to be the victim of a clearly bad call.
Iowa State lost a game 7-10 due to an obviously made field goal that was ruled no good…
pic.twitter.com/xWmLYXuvmu— Mohsan (@MohsanLFC) September 16, 2023
Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I mean...it's a conspiracy by now, right? I'm 1-13 in the last two years picking the Eagles.
Central Michigan at (9) Notre Dame (-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Irish won handily and managed to keep Sam Hartman a Heisman contender without running up the score. That's not ideal for me. I'm glad I didn't touch this one.
South Carolina at (1) Georgia (-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I guess we really shouldn't be surprised. Georgia needed a game like this. Spencer Rattler looked good early, but the Bulldogs adjusted. Carson Beck played mistake-free football and the defense did what it does. The Bulldogs also proved that Daijun Edwards can handle a load and still be a bruiser doing it.
(10) Alabama (-32.5) at South Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I wish I had known that the Tide were going to hold open quarterback auditions during the game. This is the ugliest offensive game we've seen from the Tide in more than a decade, but it served a purpose. It proved that Jalen Milroe is the best they have and the fans should support him accordingly.
San Diego State at (16) Oregon State (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The San Diego State defense was opportunistic and didn't give up big plays, but the offense was dominated by the Beavers' defense. I'm still hearing chainsaws and I watched this game three days ago...
(18) Oklahoma (-28.5) at Tulsa: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The only two teams in College Football with a Top 10 offense and a Top 10 defense (PPG scored & PPG allowed).
Oklahoma -
• Offense: 6th - 50.5 PPG scored
• Defense: 6th - 5.5 PPG allowedSyracuse -
• Offense: 3rd - 56.6 PPG scored
• Defense: 1st - 3.5 PPG allowed pic.twitter.com/NKwVAvfWdo— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 13, 2023
I haven't seen defense like this from the Sooners since Austin Box (R.I.P.) roamed the middle. Given the takeaways they have been getting, this might be the best Sooners defense since 2003. I've missed this. I want to see it done against a good team though. They will get their chance this week.
Minnesota at (20) North Carolina (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is the game that I went heavy on this week just like Colorado last week. It doesn't make up much for me for the purposes of this column, but it still made sure that I had a profitable week overall. I am a huge fan of Darius Taylor, but I really question why P.J. Fleck won't let Athan Kaliakmanis row the boat some. He's basically the coxswain of this offense, and that's not a good thing for a team that should win the Big Ten(14) West.
Northwestern at (21) Duke (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If you haven't watched Riley Leonard play yet (honestly...you really have no excuse. The Clemson game was on when nothing else was), you need to. He might be the best football player Duke has ever had. Yes, I know that Daniel Jones is still the starter for the Giants.
Western Michigan at (25) Iowa (-28.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really have to wonder what is wrong with Western Michigan. They got buried in the third quarter, yet still only attempted 18 passes while running 36 times (even though they went nowhere). Iowa covered this without the aid of a defensive touchdown and with Cade McNamara having a terrible game. This is my shocked face.
Virginia Tech at Rutgers (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Grant Wells didn't play and Jaylin Lane played sparingly. That wasn't the problem. Kyron Drones played a solid game and was fun to watch. It was the Tech defense that was steamrolled by Kyle Monangai.
Rutgers junior running back Kyle Monangai today vs Virginia Tech
16 rushes
143 yards
3 TD’sLast week vs Temple:
28 rushes
165 yards
1 TDHe also scored in the Week 1 win over Northwestern
Rutgers is 3-0 to start the season ?#RU@kylemonangai pic.twitter.com/6XBKRjhgOO
— Josh Wiesel (@Jwiesel13) September 16, 2023
Florida International at Connecticut (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Remember the name Keyone Jenkins. If you watched the game, you know that he's only 18 years old because they mentioned it a couple dozen times (that's not an exaggeration). Jenkins looked amazing, and I'm going to make it a point to tune into FIU games now. This is a fun guy to watch.
The KEYONE JENKINS SHOW. ?? @LyghtzO
240 pass yds and 3 total TD’s for Lyghtzout. At HALFTIME.
(via @FIUFootball) pic.twitter.com/X2gDdVe7SG
— 305 Sports (@305Sportss) September 16, 2023
East Carolina at Appalachian State (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm surprised App State only won by 15. ECU looked good early, but too much Nate Noel buried them in the second half.
Western Kentucky at (6) Ohio State (-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ohio State showed up, burying the Hilltoppers with five touchdowns in the second quarter alone. Kyle McCord had three touchdowns and only four incompletions. This is exactly what fans wanted to see before the Notre Dame game.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas A&M (-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known that the Aggies receivers would run circles around the Warhawks. This was never a game.
Tulane (-12.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kai Horton is not a bad consolation prize for when Michael Pratt can't play. The Tulane defense is really good again as well. Don't be surprised if they win the American again.
(8) Washington (-16.5) at Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Just when you thought that Michael Penix couldn't get any better...
MICHAEL PENIX JR. IS A MAN ON A MISSION ? pic.twitter.com/ytKd3Uorht
— ESPN (@espn) September 17, 2023
Georgia State (-7.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Darren Grainger is putting up Michael Penix numbers now. He threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns on the Charlotte defense. Taulia who?
(11) Tennessee (-6.5) at Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Vols still can't win in the Swamp. It's not on Joe Milton either. He played well enough. It was the inability to contain Trevor Etienne. He's going to be as good as his brother.
North Texas at Louisiana Tech (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It blows my mind how Roderic Burns didn't set records with Austin Aune as his quarterback. Chandler Roger may be the missing link for the Mean Green. Can he play defense?
Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I mostly left the spread alone on this one, but I pounded the under. Which was great until the Huskies scored a garbage-time touchdown with four seconds left... Heinrich Haaburg looked a lot better than Jeff Sims as the starter for Nebraska and it had everything to do with playing smart football. He didn't commit a turnover and the Nebraska offense moved with authority.
Vanderbilt (-4.5) at UNLV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, remember when Vanderbilt was up 17-0? That was fun... The Vanderbilt offense continues to be a comedy of errors around AJ Swann.
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Miami celebrating an upset win the Battle for the Victory Bell.
RedHawks first win over UC in 17 years. pic.twitter.com/O0oe0ac4eu
— Joe Danneman (@FOX19Joe) September 17, 2023
I knew better in a rivalry game. The Redhawks can finally Tweet about winning the Victory Bell and you can bet they are.
South Alabama at Oklahoma State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I wish I would have had more confidence in this. It's going to be a fun battle for the worst team in the Big 12(14) between Iowa State and Oklahoma State. At least Iowa State has a defense...
South Alabama oh my! ? pic.twitter.com/MT0coc9weC
— sportsretronicnetwork (@retronicnetwork) September 17, 2023
I've been singing the praises of Carter Bradley, LaDamian Webb, and South Alabama for a couple of years now. This win feels a little bit like vindication. The Jaguars remind me a lot of UTSA circa 2021.
Louisiana at UAB (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Blazers didn't even find the end zone for the first 55 minutes. This game was much worse than the final score suggests.
James Madison at Troy (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What a game this was! The JMU defense contained Kimani Vidal (27 yards on just 11 carries). Gunnar Watson did his best to pass and beat James Madison but fell just short.
San Jose State at Toledo (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still think that Toledo is the class of the MAC even though they didn't cover this. That may not mean what it did back when Jaret Patterson was trampling all comers, but this is still a good conference. Peny Boone is the next in a very long line of good Toledo running backs.
Bowling Green at (2) Michigan (-40.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If you Michigan fans want to panic a little, go ahead. J.J. McCarthy threw three interceptions against the Falcons and allowed this game to stay a lot closer than it should have. The Michigan defense held tough, but that's a concerning performance from the star quarterback.
In week 3, there were 142 FBS QB's who took at least 10 dropbacks in their respective games. Noah Kim ranked #137 in overall passing grade via PFF with just a 36.7 grade.
Silver lining is that Kim still ranked above J.J. McCarthy, who earned a 34.7 passing grade (#138/142).
— Hunter (@Hunter_42msu) September 18, 2023
Georgia Tech at (17) Mississippi (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The final score is incredibly misleading. This was a 10-point game early in the fourth quarter. I know that Georgia Tech is a much better team than they were last year (how can they not be replacing Jeff Sims with Haynes King), but Ole Miss isn't going to survive the SEC with Jaxson Dart leading the team in rushing.
BYU at Arkansas (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew I should have come back and changed this pick once Raheim Sanders was ruled out. That's not the only problem for the Hogs though. They jumped out 14-0, but couldn't hold. They committed 14 penalties and allowed too many third-down conversions. If you just look at yardage, the Hogs should have won big. This catch by Chase Roberts sums up everything.
This Chase Roberts catch ? pic.twitter.com/qXtHGXe1s6
— College Transfer Portal (@CollegeFBPortal) September 17, 2023
Akron at Kentucky (-25.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Re'Mahn Davis put on a show against Akron. Can he do it in the SEC?
Syracuse (-2.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Garrett Shrader is a stud. He didn't really fit in a Mike Leach offense, but he has put on a show in his time at Syracuse.
Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Garrett Greene was hurt six plays into this, but Nicco Marchiol did what Phil Jurkovec couldn't: avoid turnovers. Jurkovec threw three interceptions and completed just 40% of his passes for 81 yards. CJ Donaldson might be the best running back in the Big 12(14). No, I'm not kidding.
CJ Donaldson on Pitt selling out to stop the run: "You see my front five. They have to stop them first. All I have to do is run behind the front five… I love running behind my front five. It’s like the Great Wall of China"
— Wesley Shoemaker (@wesleyshoe) September 17, 2023
Wyoming at (4) Texas (-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm a big fan of Harrison Waylee. I'm glad to see him on a football field once again. And if Andrew Peasley ever starts a football game for Wyoming again, it will be too soon. Wyoming hung tough for about 50 minutes, but Texas finally put them away with a flurry in the last 10 minutes.
Hawaii at (13) Oregon (-38.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oregon is one team that I don't mind picking huge spreads with. They will keep running. They know no other way.
New Mexico State at New Mexico (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better.
Florida Atlantic at Clemson (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Lajohntay Wester was the only bright spot for the Owls. The Clemson defense turned in a dominant performance and Cade Klubnik got some much-needed reps in.
TCU (-7.5) at Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm always falling for Dana Holgorsen faking like he has a good team. He clearly does not...
Colorado State at (18) Colorado (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi turned in a great game in his first start as the Rams scared the bejesus out of the Ralphies. A cheap shot that took out Travis Hunter early in this one probably helped keep this close. You can't underestimate the impact that Hunter has on both sides of the ball.
This hit on Travis Hunter was one of the biggest cheap shots I’ve ever seen. Dude should’ve been kicked out of the game.
pic.twitter.com/atCSqWmfr2— Big Game Boomer (@BigGameBoomer) September 17, 2023
That being said, Henry Blackburn did not deserve to be doxxed by social media, including having his address and his parents' address and phone number publicly posted and the death threats and insensitive slurs that came along with it. In a perfect world, the NCAA would take some kind of action not only to discipline Blackburn but to protect him as well. Unfortunately, we all know the NCAA is a bunch of spineless cowards.
The Rams showed up to play, and it's nice to see Nevada transfer Tory Horton have someone who can get the ball near him so we can see things like this.
So Tory Horton’s ball skills… pic.twitter.com/o6xrcqDWxV
— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) September 17, 2023
I've watched the poor guy run route after route well and get open only to have Shane Illingworth throw it into a different zip code for the last couple of years with Nevada.
Fresno State (-2.5) at Arizona State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USC turnovers in 17 games under Lincoln Riley: 8
Arizona State turnovers last week against Fresno State: 8
— Michael Castillo (@MichaelCastFS) September 20, 2023
No creativity needed. Sparky was just dominated by Fresno in every sense of the word. The Sun Devils turned it over a staggering eight times. They were fortunate to only lose by 29 points.
Kansas (-27.5) at Nevada: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kansas was very fortunate not to lose this game. I think Nevada just fumbled again, but they recovered it again.
UTEP at Arizona (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hey, we're not done with amazing catches just yet. Check out this one from Tetairoa McMillan.
TETAIROA. MCMILLAN. WHAT. A. CATCH. @TMAC96795 🤯🤯🤯
📺: Pac-12 Network pic.twitter.com/EMGwmKPrYX
— Arizona Football (@ArizonaFBall) September 17, 2023
At least one Arizona team is fun to watch...
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I missed all four pre-weekend games and the first one on Saturday but went almost even after that. I still finished a disappointing 24-30 this week to put my season mark at 74-79. Hopefully, I am still in the black on the points.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-5 (8-13) = -5
2. 8-12 (32-31) = 2
3. 7-9 (21-23) = -6
4. 4-2 (6-8) = -8
5. 2-2 (7-4) = 15
I had the worst week of the season so far, losing eight points. That takes away the six I had in the bank and now leaves me down 113 points after six-plus years of adding the confidence points. I intend to get that out of the red this year. Stay tuned!
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