RADIO
We only 45 games for our Saturday this week. There were seven games before Saturday, which was a season-high sans Week 1. We had Fun Belt Tuesdays. Soon to joined by MACtion on Wednesday. Soon we will have college football every day of the week except for Sunday and Monday, but I'm getting ahead of myself.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I had a good week last week, but am already down three points this week since Appalachian State failed to show up in Lafayette for a date with the Cajuns. Someone was there in their uniforms, but it wasn't the usual suspects that we are used to watching. I split last night in picks, but came out a touch ahead in points. I'm still down a bit though. I never like starting a week in the hole!
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Central Florida at (3)Cincinnati(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low for a team that is still without Dillon Gabriel. Mikey Keene has been a solid fill in, but he doesn't have the arm or the legs of Gabriel. This offense is adjusting on the fly, which is not where you want to be against a defense like this. The Bearcats are running on style points from here on out. I think they get more of them here.
(10)Michigan State(-4.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Rodney Dangerfields of college football are once again getting no respect in Vegas. The Hoosiers aren't moving the ball well on offense and are getting gouged on defense, particularly by running teams. Kenneth Walker III is in for a big game this week. I'll take the Spartans by double digits!
(12)Oklahoma State at (25)Texas(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I understand that this is in Austin, but the Cowboys have looked like the better team so far. This will be the best defense (with the possible exception of Arkansas) that Texas has faced. Casey Thompson is going to be a problem for Oklahoma State, but Jaylen Warren is now integrated fully into the offense and Tay Martin is healthy. This is going to be close, but I still like the Cowboys outright.
Auburn at (17)Arkansas(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not sure why this line is rising. I'm not going to dock Auburn for losing to Georgia the same way I didn't hold it against Arkansas last week. However, it is totally fair to question the Arkansas defense after they were carved up by Ole Miss last weekend. Auburn's offense isn't quite that good, but if the Bo Nix that we saw at LSU shows up, Auburn could very well win this game. There's a lot of talent on that team. I'll take Arkansas at home, but lower the bet.
(20)Florida(-11.5) at LSU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow. This line opened at -3.5 and it's as high as 12.5 in places already. The LSU run defense has been a huge problem this year. It looks even worse now that Florida is almost exclusively a running team. Florida losing in Lexington is not a bad loss. Remember, this team nearly took out Alabama in the Swamp a few weeks ago. I think Florida wins this in Death Valley, but I don't know if it's by this much. Kentucky is a better offense than Florida, and the Wildcats beat down the Bayou Bengals in the Commonwealth. Give me LSU. They wont win, but I think they hang around.
(21)Texas A&M(-8.5) at Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Devon Achane and his track speed is going to be a huge problem for one of the worst tackling defenses in the country. Missouri has allowed at least 177 rushing yards in every game this season. FCS Southeast Missouri ran for nearly 300. Tennessee gouged them for 458 and five rushing touchdowns. This is too low. Give me A&M. I'm done losing money on Missouri.
Nebraska(-3.5) at Minnesota
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Hey Gophers, remember all those beatings you've been doling out to the boys from Lincoln? Minnesota has beaten Nebraska by more than 25 points twice in the last four years. Payback's a bitch. Nebraska wins BIG! They're not letting up here. This is going to look like the 2018 game.
Rutgers(-1.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There was a time when traveling to Evanston was a tough trip. It isn't right now. The Northwestern defense is much maligned this year, but I'm not entirely sure Rutgers has the horses on offense to really get to them. The Northwestern offense is improving and I have to think that a Pat Fitzgerald defense catches up eventually. A slow, methodical Rutgers team is a good time for that. I'll take the Wildcats at home in what promises to be an ugly game.
Tulsa(-8.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Huh? USF survives solely by running the ball, but the Tulsa run defense has been a strength. Tulsa has lost to Houston, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State. Forget the opener to UC-Davis. Davis Brin was still learning the offense and Shemari Brooks was out. Every time I believe in Tulsa they screw me, so I will lower the bet. I am taking the Dust Devils though.
Ohio at Buffalo(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is all over the place. I've seen it under 7 and I've seen it as high as 10. Shop around if you bet this. I don't have a lot of confidence left in Buffalo and I hate that half. Still, Ohio has been a disaster on offense. I'll take the Bulls, I guess.
Duke at Virginia(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm a huge believer in Brennan Armstrong. I am not a believer in the Virginia defense. However, these massive Virginia receivers are going to be a huge problem for Duke. I'll take the Hoos.
Ball State(-1.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is too low. The Ball State passing attack is going to be a problem for the Eagles. The Cardinals beat Army. EMU's claim to fame this year is beating UMass and Texas State. Ball State by double digits!
Akron at Miami(OH)(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels high. The Redhawks have only scored 20 points three times in six games. Once was against Long Island University. I'll take Akron to not get covered. If Blake Hester can find room like he did against Bowling Green, the Zips might even score!
Troy(-7.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Troy should be enough better than a team that lost to Incarnate Word. Give me the Trojans.
(11)Kentucky at (1)Georgia(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow! I believe in the Georgia defense. I believe in Kentucky's as well. I don't see the Wildcats getting covered in this one. They are going to have problems scoring, but Georgia will too.
Purdue at (2)Iowa(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a touch high, but it's not when you realize that Iowa is capable of keeping Purdue off the scoreboard. I'll take Iowa.
(19)BYU at Baylor(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line opened with BYU favored. Now it's a lot closer to accurate. The Baylor defense is sneaky good and Gerry Bohanon doesn't look anything like he did last year. Bohanon has made big strides between last year and this year and the Baylor offense is starting to reap the rewards. I'm good with the Bears for anything under a touchdown.
Western Kentucky(-12.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
WAY too low. Bailey Zappe is going for 500 again and WKU should win by 20!
UAB(-15.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like Frank Gore Jr., but the rest of the Eagles team is bad. I'll take UAB.
Miami(FL) at North Carolina(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Tarheels are capable of covering this. They are also capable of losing by multiple touchdowns. I have no faith in either team, but I'll take Sam Howell and the Heels at home.
Pittsburgh(-5.5) at Virginia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Really? The Pitt offense has looked very good throwing the ball, but without a run game to keep the Hokies defense honest, I don't see Pitt winning this. Give me Virginia Tech and the points.
Toledo(-4.5) at Central Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
When in doubt, go with the best player on the field. That is by far and away Toledo RB Bryant Koback.
Bowling Green at Northern Illinois(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In previous years, this would be a tough ask for the Huskies. Rocky Lombardi still isn't that good, but he is good in this offense. I'll take the Huskies.
Kent State at Western Michigan(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Kent likes to hang around. They did against A&M and they did against Iowa. They might not win, but Dustin Crum and company wont go down without a fight. I'll take Kent and the points.
Arizona at Colorado(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Things were finally picking up for the Wildcats, then Jordan McCloud went down in a heap last weekend. His season is done and the Wildcats are right back where they started the season: With Gunner Cruz at quarterback. It has been 740 days since Arizona won a football game. The streak ends here! Arizona outright!
Fresno State(-3.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulldogs struggled in Paradise and they are going to struggle at the highest stadium in the country. Will they struggle enough to lose this? Probably not. Give me Fresno.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Gamecocks aren't built to cover lines like this, but the defense is good enough to pitch a shutout and Kevin Harris is finally rounding back into form. Give me the Gamecocks.
Texas Tech(-17.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like the half and I don't have a lot of faith in the Texas Tech offense. Give me Texas Tech, but there's no way I bet this.
Rice at UTSA(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Rice is bad. UTSA is not. We could see another monster from Frank Harris. Roadrunners roll!
(5)Alabama(-17.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'd hate to be the team that Alabama plays after a loss. The Bulldogs are going to have their hands full here, but that half has me lowering the bet. Give me Bama.
Liberty(-32.5) at Louisana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That's a ton of points. I get it. Monroe is damn awful. Malik Willis is going to put on a show, but I doubt that this is a shutout for the Liberty defense. Give me Monroe. This is a shade too high.
Colorado State(-10.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This still feels low. I'm starting to believe in the Rams. They are a solid team run by Temple transfer Todd Centeio and Boston College transfer David Bailey. I'll take the Rams.
Utah State(-7.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams have revolving quarterbacks. Once again, I'm going with the best player on the field. In this case, it's Utah State WR Deven Thompkins. I'll take the Aggies.
TCU at (4)Oklahoma(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Caleb Williams should at least start this game, but I'm not sure his leash is all that long. The TCU defense is a pretty solid bunch, but the Toadies can't throw to play catch up. Oklahoma pulls away.
(13)Mississippi(-2.5) at Tennessee
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Vols are going to be able to get to this defense and I think they might hold up a touch better than Arkansas did. I wouldn't be shocked if Tennessee wins this outright. Tennessee has turned a corner and they have the best team since Philip Fulmer left. I'll take Tennessee at home.
(22)North Carolina State(-2.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yeah, I like this line. Boston College hasn't faced a run game like the Wolfpack yet. I'll take NC State.
Iowa State(-6.5) at Kansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is an interesting one. Are we the only ones that have problems with the Wildcats? I like Breece Hall a lot in this one. Enough to take the Cyclones by a touchdown.
Stanford(-1.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Make no mistake about it. Stanford lost to a good team last week. That said, the Cougars also beat a pretty solid team. I still have questions about Stanford without Brycen Tremaine. That was such a huge loss. I'll take Wazzu.
Army at Wisconsin(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Wisconsin still can't throw. I'll take Army. They should keep this within one score.
UCLA at Washington(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't buy this at all. Dylan Morris still makes way too many mistakes. That wont fly against this offense. UCLA outright.
Louisiana Tech(-6.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It has been a fun run for the Miners, but I think it ends here. The Bulldogs are solid on both sides of the ball. I expect a spirited effort from the home team, but it wont be enough to keep this within ten points.
Air Force at Boise State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is Air Force going to turn it over four times? Don't count on it. Air Force has only turned the ball over three times in six games. I like the Falcons outright, even on the Smurf Turf.
(18)Arizona State at Utah(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This seems like a big overcorrection to Utah smacking USC. Arizona State has looked much better over the last couple of weeks and have cut down on the mistakes. I still think the Sun Devils control this game and win by at least a touchdown.
Hawaii at Nevada(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Never trust Hawaii on the mainland. Give me Nevada.
I went with ten one-point bets, which is a season high. You can blame that on a lot of big spreads and average teams trying to cover them. I chickened into 21 two-point bets and toned back the three's a touch to 13. I do have five four-point bets this week and three fives, which is pretty standard. Not my most gutsy week, but there are some tough lines out there. Good luck!
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