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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 8/4/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
We had a very solid night last Friday with a 3-1 record on four NRFI bets and came up just one out shy of a clean sweep as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a solo shot off Michael Wacha with two outs in the bottom of the first inning.
We usually get fewer games on Mondays, but we have 13 MLB contests on the slate and a surprising number of games that I am interested in for NRFI bets. I had a hard time paring it down to just four picks today, so I am going to go ahead and give you all SIX of my favorite spots for NRFIs.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, August 4, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (August 4, 2025)
- San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates: 6:40 pm
- Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies: 6:45 pm
- Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets: 7:10 pm
- Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: 8:05 pm
- New York Yankees at Texas Rangers: 8:05 pm
- St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers: 10:10 pm
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SFG: Justin Verlander
- PIT: Johan Oviedo
Yes, I am well aware that the Pirates are coming off a series in Colorado where they scored a ton of runs, but I am expecting a bit of a "Coors Hangover" today as they return home to the pitcher-friendly confines of PNC Park. We have some winds blowing in from right-center field and very modest temperatures in the low 80s today.
If you're not familiar, the logic behind a team struggling the day or two after they leave Coors Field is that breaking balls (or any pitches with a lot of movement) are sharper at more normal altitudes. It takes hitters a little while to adjust back after seeing flatter pitches in Denver.
So I am ignoring the Pirates' hot bats at the moment and focusing instead on the fact that the veteran Verlander just handled this team in his last start, striking out seven hitters while allowing just one run over five frames.
On the other side, Pittsburgh will be rolling out Johan Oviedo for his 2025 debut. Oviedo hasn't pitched at the big league level since 2023, when he made 32 starts for Pittsburgh. He missed all of last year and most of this season after having Tommy John surgery.
5 strong innings in the books for Johan Oviedo! pic.twitter.com/NvhaXBzjb4
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) July 24, 2025
Oviedo has looked sharp in his minor league rehab starts, allowing just one run in each of his last four starts. He was able to go five innings and induce five strikeouts in each of his last two starts, one at Double-A Altoona and the other at Triple-A Indianapolis.
The Giants are 8-2 on offensive NRFIs over their last 10 games, so this is a good spot for Oviedo to start strong in his comeback journey.
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-111 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BAL: Cade Povich
- PHI: Jesus Luzardo
We get another youngster making his return from injury here with Baltimore lefty Cade Povich set to rejoin the rotation today against the Phillies. Povich has missed the last six weeks with a hip injury, but has been rehabbing in the minors for the last month and is ready to get back out on the mound for the Orioles.
Cade Povich finishes another start on MLB Rehab. His line:
5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO
70 pitches, 42 strikes pic.twitter.com/bz6k0m8cRP— Norfolk Tides (@NorfolkTides) July 25, 2025
Povich has a 5.15 ERA through his first 12 MLB starts this season. However, his SIERA is 3.91, and his underlying numbers suggest he has the skills to be better in terms of run prevention. He is 10-2 on NRFIs this year and had a streak of six straight NRFIs going before his injury. Povich has an impressive 2.45 ERA the first time through the order; it's been the second (6.85 ERA) and third (9.82 ERA) times through the order that have plagued him.
The Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who has been electric at times this year but also victimized by the big inning far too often, which has inflated his ERA. He's been cruising through opposing lineups early with a five-game NRFI streak; it's also the later innings that usually bite him. His overall NRFI record is 17-,5 and I think he's got the type of elite stuff to quiet the Baltimore bats early in this game.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets NRFI (-111 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CLE: Slade Cecconi
- NYM: Sean Manaea
The Guardians were sellers at the deadline, sending Shane Bieber to Toronto and signaling that they are comfortable developing young arms like Cecconi and Joey Cantillo for the rest of the season. Cecconi has been a pleasant surprise for Cleveland, pitching to a 3.77 ERA over 13 starts this season after being acquired in the offseason from Arizona.
Cecconi has been strong in the early innings, too, boasting an 11-2 NRFI record and coming into this start riding a five-game NRFI streak.
The Mets hand the ball to the left-handed veteran Manaea, who has made just three starts for them since returning from injury. He's looked sharp so far with a 2.08 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, while going 2-1 on NRFIs.
Cleveland has been hot lately on YRFIs with a 50% hit rate over their last 10 games. However, I still view them (like the Pirates) as a below-average offense that has taken advantage of some weak pitching lately (Colorado and a depleted Twins' staff).
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs NRFI (-148 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CIN: Nick Lodolo
- CHC: Michael Soroka
Lodolo has looked like the ace that Cincinnati had hoped he could become lately. He's battled some inconsistency this season and has just a 13-9 NRFI record; however, he has been lights out lately.
Over his last five starts, Lodolo is 3-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 33 innings. His last start was the icing on the cake as he whiffed 11 Dodgers and limited one of the better offenses in baseball to just two runs on six hits.
Lodolo has faced the Cubs twice (back in May) and has fared pretty well against them, limiting them to three earned runs over 11 innings with 11 strikeouts.
The Cubs will go with the newly acquired Michael Soroka, who came over from Washington at the deadline. Soroka had a 4.87 ERA over 16 starts for the Nationals, but also had some strong peripherals with a 3.62 SIERA, 25% K%, and 1.13 WHIP.
Soroka is 13-3 on NRFIs this season, so I have some faith in his ability to be effective early in the game. We always have to watch the weather at Wrigley Field, but the good news for the pitchers is that the wind is blowing in from center field today, around seven mph.
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- NYY: Max Fried
- TEX: Patrick Corbin
It's Max Fried day with K props as the Rangers lead the major leagues with a 28% K% vs. LHP over the last month. So naturally, we like him for an NRFI, too, since Texas also has the third-worst wRC+ against southpaws in the same time frame.
Free Bet 🚨🚨
Max Fried K 🪜 to 8K
🔥9K vs. TB last start (27.6% K vs LHP L30)
✅TEX 25.3% K in 2025, 28.3% K L30, 31.3% K L14 vs LHP
🤯Projected TEX lineup massive Whiff% vs FC and CU of Fried (Main two K Pitches)@RotoBallerMLB @RotoBaller pic.twitter.com/Or7pd3TP7f— Casey Wilson (@CaseyW22) August 4, 2025
You probably don't need too much cajoling to buy into Fried today, but I know many of you are questioning the matchup for Patrick Corbin against the Yankee bats.
Well, what if I told you that Corbin has an elite 17-3 NRFI record this season and that the Yankees rank just 19th in wRC+ vs. LHP over the last month? Without Aaron Judge in that top third of the lineup, I fear the Yankees a lot less than I normally would (no offense to Paul Goldschmidt and Austin Slater).
This game is priced as if both pitchers have an advantage in this one, and I tend to agree. However, we are still in a good odds range here at -130, where we don't have to pay the usual -150 or more for two aces.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- STL: Sonny Gray
- LAD: Tyler Glasnow
To wrap up the night, we get a big-time pitchers' duel as Sonny Gray takes on Tyler Glasnow. Gray is 16-6 on NRFIs this season, while Glasnow is 8-1. Both pitchers have some elite strikeout stuff, which always helps our cause, as early-inning strikeouts are a big ally of the NRFI.
Glasnow should cruise through this Cardinals offense that is 9-1 on NRFIs over their last 10 games and slumping lately. It's Gray who has the bigger challenge as he will have to face both Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in the first inning. Mookie Betts is 3-5 against Gray over the last two years, but has been pretty cold at the plate.
It comes down to the price, and we are getting a great price at -115 here, considering the talent of both pitchers. I am willing to go out on a limb and attack the Dodgers. Let's just hope Sonny has his best stuff tonight!
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Rockies, Twins, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Braves (90%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Pirates, Guardians, Athletics (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Pirates (6)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Athletics (.417)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Athletics (.463)
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