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Andy looks at four sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 19 (2025) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! With another week of fantasy baseball in the books and an action-packed trade deadline, it is time to take another deep dive and determine which sneaky starting pitchers could be worth a spot on our roster.
This week, we will take a look at two pitchers from Chicago (one from each side of town), an emerging southpaw in Cleveland, and a right-hander in the Steel City.
Who should fantasy managers be targeting this week? Let's dive in!
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Note - All stats are updated as of Monday, August 4
Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs
35% Rostered
The Chicago Cubs rookie has been on quite an impressive run. Over his last three starts, the right-hander has not allowed a run and held a strong 0.88 WHIP. During these 17 innings of work, Horton has struck out 10 hitters and allowed only seven walks.
In fact, since the start of July, Horton has only allowed a run in one start, which was on July 9, when he served up four runs and six hits to the Minnesota Twins.
Is this breakout legit?
Before this recent surge, Horton held a modest 4.80 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over his first 45 innings in the big leagues. He struck out just 33 hitters over this stretch while allowing 14 free passes.
Horton leans heavily on his four-seamer, throwing it 49.7% of the time and mixing in a sweeper, changeup, and curveball, while occasionally deploying his sinker and slider.
Horton has a strange profile as his four-seamer is actually his worst pitch. A starting pitcher with a weak fastball is typically a profile you want to avoid in fantasy, but Horton has proven this theory could have some faults to it. In July, his four-seamer (deployed 46.3% of the time) carried a heavy .464 xSLG with a .358 xwOBA. However, on the surface, in July, he posted a 1.52 ERA.
Despite his four-seamer's lack of success, his other three pitchers did much of the heavy lifting. His sweeper (19.8% deployed) carried a .298 xwOBA with an eye-catching 42.1% whiff rate. His No. 3 pitch, his changeup (18.9% deployed), was just as effective, posting a .195 xwOBA with a 50.0% whiff rate and a 22.2% put-away rate.
The chart below paints a clear picture. His secondary pitches are borderline elite, while his fastball is significantly below average.
However, the primary reason Horton was able to enjoy a productive July was that he opted to decrease his four-seamer usage slightly less in relation to June, where he posted a 5.47 ERA. As shown below, he deployed his four-seamer in July at the lowest mark in a single month this season.
If Horton can continue to lower this percentage, he could be in store for a productive conclusion to the second half. Just look at how dominant he was in July despite his weak four-seamer. He is worth picking up in all standard leagues and a strong option to deploy with confidence in most matchups, pitching behind a competing Cubs team that boasts an elite defense.
Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox
10% Rostered
Burke has spent most of the campaign in the rotation but has typically been deployed as a long relief option. Through 110 2/3 innings of work, the right-hander has held a modest 4.23 ERA with a relatively high 1.41 WHIP. He has struck out 100 hitters and carried a high 10.3% walk rate.
However, in July, Burke was quite effective, excluding his six-run explosion on July 7 against the then-red-hot Toronto Blue Jays. Removing this outing, the right-hander would have posted a 2.29 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a 23:8 K:BB through 19 2/3 innings of work.
Can fantasy managers expect this production to continue going forward?
Unlike Horton's, Burke's metrics are not nearly as impressive and raise several concerns heading into the final stretch of the season. In July, Burke threw his four-seamer 43.8% of the time and mixed in his No. 2 pitch, his curveball, 26.9% of the time. His four-seamer carried a .347 wOBA on the surface, but held a slightly better .308 xwOBA under the hood.
However, his curveball is due for a significant step back. It carries .236 wOBA on the surface, but a much higher .365 xwOBA under the hood. The curveball also carries an alarming .514 xSLG compared to the .237 SLG on the surface.
In addition, Burke did not generate nearly as many swings and misses in July despite his surface-level successes.
Given his weak command (21st percentile walk rate), loud contact allowed, and decreasing swing-and-miss production, Burke appears to be a fool's gold on the waiver wire.
Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians
15% Rostered
The 25-year-old southpaw has flashed immense strikeout upside during his first full season in the major leagues. After logging only 38 2/3 innings last summer, Cantillo has tossed 55 2/3 innings ot the tune of a 4.37 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP this season. However, despite his underwhelming ratios, the left-hander has struck out hitters at a 28.8% rate, placing him in the 87th percentile among qualified pitchers.
After bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation, Cantillo was finally given a full look in the starting rotation in July. Through five starts this month (21 2/3 innings), the left-hander posted a 4.57 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, with a modest 27:14 K:BB.
However, during the first 28 1/3 innings, spent primarily in a relief role, Cantillo held a promising 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, with a 36:14 K:BB.
What version of Cantillo can fantasy managers expect in August?
During his first month as a full-time starter, Cantillo relied primarily on three pitches: his four-seamer (37.6% usage), changeup (31.3% usage), and curveball (23.1% usage), and occasionally mixed in a slider (8.0% usage). His four-seamer carried a .500 SLG and .423 wOBA on the surface, but generated a promising .384 xSLG and improved .372 xwOBA under the hood.
This pitch also generated the highest whiff rate in comparison to his previous months of the season, as shown below. Seeing his primary pitch be more effective when being deployed more often is an excellent sign for his long-term outlook.
His changeup and curveball were also highly effective, boasting a .274 and .108 xwOBA, respectively. In addition, both pitches continued to showcase high strikeout upside, carrying a 50.0% whiff rate and a 26.5% whiff rate.
Overall, all three of his primary pitches generated their lowest xwOBA mark of the season during July.
While the 25-year-old's box scores may not have been overly impressive this past month, he possesses pretty strong expected statistics and strong potential, which gives me a lot of confidence going forward. I would look to scoop him up and stash him on your bench going forward.
He could carry a relatively high strikeout upside and should find even more success when his expected positive regression begins to kick in.
Mike Burrows, Pittsburgh Pirates
7% Rostered
Rounding out this week's column is another young pitcher. Mike Burrows made his MLB debut in 2024 but logged only 3 1/3 innings of work. This season, the right-hander has made 13 appearances (12 starts) and posted a 3.88 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP across 58 innings of work.
In his last three starts, the former 11th-round pick has been quietly dominant, posting a 1.59 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP. During this stretch, Burrows has struck out 18 hitters while serving up just four walks. Removing his one blow-up six-run outing on July 12, Burrows has posted a rather impressive 1.23 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP through 22 innings this month.
Burrows relies primarily on three pitches, his four-seamer (42.4% usage), changeup (24.1% usage), and slider (20% usage). He occasionally mixes in a curveball and a sinker. In July, these three pitches made up 85.1% of his total pitches.
His four-seamer generated a solid .351 xSLG with a .328 xwOBA, slightly higher than the .303 SLG and .310 wOBA on the surface. However, his No. 2 pitch, his changeup, was highly effective, carrying a 40.0% whiff rate with a sparkling .122 xwOBA. His No.3 pitch, his slider, brought him down, holding a hefty .403 xwOBA.
As shown below, while his four-seamer and changeup (red and green) have continued to show progress each month, his slider has counteracted much of it.
While his production has generally improved in July when looking at xwOBA, his strikeout upside has dropped as his four-seamer and changeup both posted the lowest swing-and-miss marks of the campaign this past month, while his slider has slightly increased.
Overall, the 25-year-old has made strides forward as he sits with a 3.68 xERA and a .240 xBA, which both suggest positive regression should still be in play. In addition, his 24.4% K rate still sits above average (67th percentile), and his command has remained relatively solid (8.5% walk rate).
While wins may be hard to find, Burrows has continued to show improvement, especially with his four-seamer and changeup, which should ultimately lead him to success. However, given his weak slider and decreasing swing-and-miss production, he is best reserved for 14+ team deeper leagues for the time being.
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