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Chris Clegg's fantasy baseball dynasty buy lows, sell highs, and news for Week 16 (2024). Notable prospects debuts, risers and fallers, and trends to watch.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my Week 16 fantasy baseball news, notes, and buys/sells for dynasty leagues. Thanks for bearing with me. Due to the birth of my daughter, I am much more sleep-deprived, but I am ready to rock and roll with new dynasty news and notes!
Today's article will look at recent prospect call-ups like Rece Hinds, Yilber Diaz, Justin Wrobleski, and Brooks Lee along with several other dynasty related news. This weekly series will take a look at various prospects, dynasty news, and discuss fantasy implications. If you enjoy dynasty baseball, you know it is a fast-paced game. Keeping up with the Joneses per se keeps you in the game and at the top of the standings. At the end of the day, we all want to build a dynasty team that sustains and lasts for the long haul. I am here to help you do so.
Keeping up with all the current happenings can help you stay ahead of your league mates. Call-ups, trends, and buying and selling players are all just small pieces to help you stay ahead. So, that's what we will do in this article each week, break down everything you need to know to be successful in dynasty. Let's get to it. What do you need to know for dynasty leagues in Week 16 of the 2024 season?
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Recent MLB Prospect Call-Ups
Rece Hinds is out here doing exactly what we know Hinds to do. Coming up and mashing two home runs and collecting six hits in your first three games shows the kind of hot streaks he can run. In Triple-A this year, Hinds had 13 home runs and 29 extra- base hits in 77 games. But it came with a .216/.290/.409 slash line and a 38.4 percent strikeout rate.
In 2023, there were massive splits in the first and second halves when it came to contact and strikeout rates. The slash lines were not far off as Hinds slashed .259/.316/.527 in the first half and .271/.342/.535 in the second. However, the first-half slash came with a 37.5 percent strikeout rate and 62 percent contact rate. But a second-half surge saw the contact rate jump 11 percentage points to 73 percent, and the strikeout rate subsequently dropped to 26.4 percent, an 11 percent drop.
The contact gains have not stuck as he ran a sub-60 percent contact rate in Triple-A. The power, however, is some of the best in baseball with a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 108 mph. Hinds is going to be a buzzy name for waiver-wire pickups, but if the cost is high, I'm likely avoiding due to the swing-and-miss concerns.
Could you believe this?!
Rece Hinds takes one 458 feet as he hits home runs in the first two games of his career! pic.twitter.com/xXVb48CnOX
— MLB (@MLB) July 10, 2024
Yilber Diaz looked like one of the best pitching prospects in baseball as he broke out early in the year. An eight-earned-run outing in 1.2 innings soiled what was an impressive ERA, leaving him at a 4.03 mark between Double-A and Triple-A. The performance has been much better, though.
He made his MLB debut against the Braves, tossing six innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts and one walk. Diaz has a big fastball that sits in the mid-90s consistently and regularly touches the upper 90s, hitting 99 on Wednesday. He throws a sweepy slider with depth that sits in the mid-80s and also throws a high-spinning downward curveball in a 12-6/11-5 shape. There is massive upside here, but Diaz's ability to stick as a starting pitcher will hinge on whether he can throw enough strikes.
Justin Wrobleski was a great scouting find by the Dodgers, drafting him in the 11th round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Oklahoma State. Despite pitching just 21 innings in 2022, scouts saw enough that they liked to predict a breakout in 2023, which is precisely what happened. Wrobleski fired 102.1 innings at High-A Great Lakes, posting a 2.90 ERA with 109 strikeouts to 35 walks.
By season’s end, Wrobleski had seen his fastball tick up and was sitting 95-97 mph, topping out at 99 mph with a nice ride. The velocity has held since then. His slider sits in the mid-80s, but reaches the upper-80s at times with a two-plane break from a hard-to-pick-up release point. He will mix in a low-80s curveball with sweeping action but much more depth the slider, making it hard for hitters to pick up on which breaking ball he is throwing.
When Wrobleski’s changeup is on, it is a solid pitch that shows a nice fade and depth. He will also mix a cutter on occasion, giving him five pitches. The athleticism on the mound stands out, and Wrobleski is quick to the plate, with the fastball jumping on hitters quickly.
Between Double-A and Triple-A this year, Wrobleski posted a 3.23 ERA across 78 innings with 79 strikeouts to 16 walks. His MLB debut was not stellar, but there were still good things to take away. He has a higher floor than an arm like Diaz, and we know the Dodgers' development can work wonders with arms. I like investing in Wrobleski in most formats.
Brooks Lee has gotten off to a hot start to his MLB career, collecting 11 hits in six games. He has one home run and double apiece but has shown very solid skills. Getting a late start to the season due to injury, Lee would have likely debuted in late April. He has come back strong and mashed in the minors, posting a .350/.412/.585 slash line with seven home runs and eight doubles in 30 games.
A lot of his underlying metrics match up pretty close to what Lee did last year. In 2023, Lee made contact on 79 percent of pitches he saw this year and 90 percent of pitches in the zone. This year, 75 percent overall and 89 percent in-zone in the minors. Lee is a pure hitter. The power has never been the calling card, but Lee is a contact-oriented hitter who could get to 15 home runs in a good year. He has an extremely high floor, making him a high-probability hitter.
Brooks Lee's 2nd big league homer comes off his former college roommate and fellow Top 100 prospect!
MLB's top-ranked switch-hitting prospect has 9 RBIs in his first 8 games for the @Twins. pic.twitter.com/nbnePG1172
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 10, 2024
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Trends to Watch: Ground Ball and Pull Issues
Recently, on the Toolshed Pod, while we were discussing some struggling hitters, I noticed that so many of those players struggle to lift the ball and pull it. So I wanted to dive in more on the hitters who struggle to pull the ball and also hit in on the ground too much.
Highest Ground-Ball Rates
| Player | GB% | wOBA | Barrel% |
| Yandy Diaz | 56.3% | 0.318 | 5.9% |
| Brendan Rodgers | 55.5% | 0.311 | 4.8% |
| William Contreras | 54.0% | 0.351 | 8.7% |
| Christian Yelich | 53.6% | 0.405 | 8.6% |
| Sal Frelick | 53.1% | 0.302 | 1.4% |
| Brice Turang | 52.1% | 0.330 | 3.0% |
| Yainer Diaz | 52.1% | 0.310 | 6.4% |
| Jake Burger | 52.1% | 0.269 | 10.3% |
| Dansby Swanson | 52.0% | 0.271 | 9.2% |
Lowest Ground-Ball Rates
| Player | GB% | wOBA | Barrel% |
| Davis Schneider | 26.6% | 0.310 | 13.9% |
| Mookie Betts | 27.3% | 0.390 | 6.0% |
| Isaac Paredes | 28.5% | 0.360 | 5.9% |
| Daulton Varsho | 28.6% | 0.294 | 6.1% |
| Brent Rooker | 29.3% | 0.385 | 16.6% |
| Anthony Santander | 29.7% | 0.339 | 11.0% |
| Will Smith | 29.7% | 0.361 | 12.2% |
Highest Pull Percentage
| Player | Pull% | wOBA |
| Jose Altuve | 56.4% | 0.358 |
| Salvador Perez | 55.0% | 0.343 |
| Isaac Paredes | 53.9% | 0.360 |
| Jose Ramirez | 51.3% | 0.363 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 50.7% | 0.358 |
| Daulton Varsho | 50.5% | 0.294 |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 50.2% | 0.356 |
Lowest Pull Percentage
| Player | Pull% | wOBA |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 23.7% | 0.330 |
| Brice Turang | 25.8% | 0.330 |
| Yandy Diaz | 26.0% | 0.318 |
| Brendan Rodgers | 26.3% | 0.311 |
| Leody Taveras | 27.8% | 0.288 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 27.9% | 0.327 |
| Bo Bichette | 28.5% | 0.264 |
| Anthony Volpe | 29.0% | 0.299 |
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Buys and Sells
Right now, my favorite dynasty buy out there is Andrew Painter. I know he has not pitched this year due to Tommy John, but that is the perfect reason to buy him. Out of sight, out of mind.
Painter sadly did not throw a pitch in a game in 2023 due to a UCL injury that ultimately resulted in Tommy John surgery after ascending to the game’s top prospect pitching in 2022. After being selected in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft, Painter tossed 103.2 innings in 2022, moving from Single-A to Double-A while posting a 1.56 ERA with 155 strikeouts and 25 walks.
Unfortunately, Painter was diagnosed with a sprained UCL in April. While the team decided to go with the rest and recovery route, Painter ended up needing Tommy John, which puts him out until the 2025 season.
Painter’s fastball averaged near 97 mph in 2022, reaching 101 with incredible IVB (induced vertical break), creating a rising effect at the top of the zone, especially given the high spin rates. It produced a ton of swing-and-miss and set up the rest of the arsenal well.
The slider drops in the mid-to-low 80s, averaging 10-13 inches of sweeping action with a great feel for spin. Painter hides it well and creates deception with late breaks, keeping hitters on their toes.
Painter also mixes in a changeup, which made major strides in 2022, sitting in the high-80s. The curve is the lesser of the two breakers, but you can still argue it is a plus pitch in the upper-70s. Painter showed off a new cutter in spring training 2023 before injury that was sitting right at 90 mph.
If the five pitches all stick, it would give him five separate velocity bands and four different movement patterns to keep hitters guessing. What Painter looks like post-Tommy John is still to be determined, but given that he will only be 21 when he returns, he has plenty of potential to become an ace. Buy him now.
The Phillies have four prospects on Baseball America’s Updated Top 100 list:
20: RHP Andrew Painter
21: SS Aidan Miller
48: OF Justin Crawford
55: SS Starlyn Cabapic.twitter.com/CqoZtzIzgr— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) June 14, 2024
I sadly think it is time to sell Bo Bichette on his name value. Things are not looking great at all, but the good news is that this is Bo Bichette we are talking about. People still love him and think he will rebound.
On the year, Bichette had a .222/.275/.321 slash line for an abysmal .596 OPS. Let's be honest: if this were some random shortstop who plays just average defense like Bichette, he would not be playing every day. In 327 plate appearances, Bichette has just four home runs and five stolen bases.
Since his 2021 season in which he mashed 29 home runs, drove in 102, scored 121, and stole 25 bases, things have been in decline. This year, the numbers have fallen off a cliff. Bichette stopped stealing bases last year and while the home runs backed up, the batting average kept things going for him.
The contact skills are still there, but the quality of the contact is not great. Bichette has a 31.8 percent sweet spot rate, which ranks 27th percentile among all hitters. This has led to a 4.5 percent barrel rate, worse than 80 percent of MLB hitters.
One big flaw with Bichette that we discussed above is the lack of pulled fly balls. His fly-ball rate of 18 percent is well below MLB average, and his pull rate of 27 percent is over 10 percentage points below the league average. Right now, things look pretty bleak, and Bichette might need a change of scenery. Maybe you need a change of scenery at shortstop on your fantasy team. If so, I might try to sell Bichette and see what you can get, even if it is 60 cents on the dollar.
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