Three Up, Three Down: Home Run Outliers to Buy or Sell

A huge key to having success at the game of fantasy baseball is being able to spot outliers. The game of baseball, more than most other sports, is largely dictated by randomness, at least over the short term. Even with the pretty large three-month data sample we have, randomness can still rule the day. My... Read More

Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 13

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. This week we're looking at a veteran who's trying to right the ship after early season struggles, and two prospects who turned in the first... Read More

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xBA Analysis for Week 14

It's been a while since we delved into xBA. We're now halfway through the season so it's a good time to see whose batting average is due for course correction, whether it be positive or negative. Often, although not always, players with sizeable discrepancies in BA-xBA are due for regression. Identifying these outliers can be... Read More

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Relievers Swinging-Strike Rate for Week 14

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. In week 9, I wrote an article about starting pitchers' swinging-strike rates (SwStr%) and this week I will show... Read More

Making Sense of Tampa Bay's Pitching Staff

OK, seriously — is there any tougher pitching staff to decipher in fantasy than Tampa Bay's? Between the never-ending merry-go-round that is their closer committee, their frequent use of openers and then the normal issue of back-end rotation guys not being fantasy assets, it can be difficult to stay on top of which pitchers you... Read More

Three Up, Three Down: Pitchers to Buy & Sell

The pitching league leaders are about to cross the 100-inning mark of the year, which means we have accrued quite a bit of data to analyze. We can now have a significant amount of confidence in our data analysis given that we've seen guys on the mound for nearly three full months. A huge key... Read More

Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 12

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. This week we're looking at two pitchers from our nation's capital, and one a little farther south down in the sunshine state. We're breaking down... Read More

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Fastball Run Values (Week 13)

The news regarding MLB's unexpected crackdown on foreign substances has been well-documented by now. It will surely have a negative impact on pitchers, but the effect on hitters may largely depend on their batted-ball profile. The pitch that has seen the biggest discrepancy for the top aces due to increased spin rates is the good... Read More

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - ERA-SIERA for Week 13

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. In week 6 I wrote an article about SIERA Studs and Duds and alluded to a future article... Read More

Catcher's Corner Exam Room: Bailey Ober

Eric Samulski of RotoBaller does a deep dive on Bailey Ober, analyzing the Minnesota Twins starting pitcher and explaining why fantasy baseball managers in deeper leagues should be buying in. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays from 8-10 AM... Read More

Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 11

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. This week we're spending some time in the NL East, as we saw three strong starts from pitchers on three different NL East teams worthy... Read More

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Slider Profiles for Week 12

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. For the past two weeks I have looked at pitchers' various movement profiles for curveballs and changeups using Statcast's... Read More

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xSLG Analysis for Week 12

Slugging is a fairly simple metric by baseball standards but once Statcast gets into the mix, it's a bit more complicated. According to MLB.com, "Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed." Base hits are still weighted with home runs being four times... Read More

Catcher's Corner Exam Room: Jose Urquidy

Eric Samulski of RotoBaller does a deep dive on Jose Urquidy, analyzing the Houston Astros starting pitcher and explaining why fantasy baseball managers should be buying in but maybe lowering their pre-season expectations. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays... Read More

Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 10

Welcome to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. The youngsters keep on pitching well, and this week we're looking at a trio of 24-year-olds who came up big in their outings over the... Read More

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Changeup Profiles for Week 11

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Last week I started taking a look into pitchers' relative success of certain pitches using Statcast's pitch movement... Read More

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Barrel Rate Analysis for Week 11

Believe it or not, this will be our first foray into barrels this season. Certain statistics take longer to become significant, so it made sense to accumulate more data before digging into barrels. Those familiar with this series already know that the obvious names like Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nelson Cruz won't be... Read More

Which Pitchers With New Pitch Usage Should We Care About? Part Seven

One of the things we are constantly reading about during the early stages of the baseball season is pitchers adding new pitches or making major changes to their pitch usage. However, as the season goes on, those changes can be abandoned and pitchers go back to what they do/know best. So it's important to continue... Read More

Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 9

It was a week of young guns in the fantasy baseball world as we saw excellent outings from tons of young, exciting pitchers around the league. Alek Manoah has received his fair share of coverage, and deservedly so, but we're going to take things in another direction in this piece and look at some under-the-radar... Read More

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xBA Analysis for Week 10

Death, taxes, regression. These are inevitable. Eschewing the first two topics, fantasy baseball managers may be interested in identifying batters who are experiencing regerssion, both positive and negative. Once summer hits, we have enough data that season-long stats can be deceptive on the surface. That said, let's dive back into expected statistics with a look... Read More

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Curveball Profiles for Week 10

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. As I mentioned last week, I am going to start taking a look into pitchers' relative success of... Read More

Pitch Mix Exam Room: Luis Garcia

Eric Samulski of RotoBaller does a deep dive on Luis Garcia, analyzing the Houston Astros starting pitcher and explaining why fantasy baseball managers should be buying in despite the Astros rotation getting healthy. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays... Read More

Hitters That Aren't Missing Their Pitches

One thing that the analytical world of fantasy baseball doesn't talk much about is the quality of pitches seen by hitters. We have numbers to quantify almost everything in the game, but when we are viewing those numbers we somewhat assume that hitters have all seen the same set of pitches. Everybody knows this isn't... Read More

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 8

As we approach Memorial Day, season-long numbers are starting to feel a lot more real. That makes it even more important to analyze surprising starts from pitchers who may not have been caught up in the whirlwind of April breakouts. This week we're taking a trip across the junior circuit, looking at a pitcher from... Read More

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Sweet Spot Analysis for Week 9

Barrel rate is one of the best measures of a hitter's power. In order to earn a barrel, a player needs to have enough exit velocity, which we measured last week, and the proper launch angle. Specifically, a ball can travel anywhere between 8-50 degrees depending on how high an exit velocity was produced. Although... Read More

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Swinging-Strike Rate Analysis for Week 9

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Some metrics may seem simpler than others, but that does not mean that they are less informative. One... Read More

The Best Pitches of 2021 By The Numbers

There is so much to look at when evaluating pitchers in 2021. The amount of data we have is incredible. At the time of this writing, there had been 186,220 pitches thrown this season. I wanted to examine the individual pitch types and see which pitchers have been most effective with each. I am mostly focusing... Read More

Barrel-Aged: Hitters With Biggest Barrel Gains

Lately, I've been focusing a lot on barrels when trying to evaluate which hitters are off to the most note-worthy starts. I recently covered Blast Rate, which is a sub-section of barrels that aims to tell us who is making the "best" good contact. Today, we'll focus on who has shown the best growth in... Read More

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 7

It was another exciting week in major league baseball, which brings an overabundance of surprising starts around the league. This week we're looking at a pair of veterans who were considered top-30 starting pitchers in their heyday, but injuries have resulted in quite a fall from grace. We're also looking at an emerging left-hander who's... Read More