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As we approach the end of April, we now have a good sample size of some top prospect performances. How are they doing, and what should we expect moving forward? As always, I encourage fantasy baseball managers and fans to temper expectations with prospects. The jump from AAA to the majors is very hard, and I cannot emphasize that enough.
Sometimes, prospects get the call and hit the ground running. Other times, they come up and completely flounder. We will talk about a top prospect doing that in this article. Baseball is tough, and that is what it comes down to. Prospect growth is not linear; it takes time.
But, it is time to discuss the recent performance of the top prospects in the majors. RotoBallers, are you ready for today's rookie report? Let's do it.
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Jackson Holliday, MI, Baltimore Orioles
There have been few prospect debuts I remember with as much hype as Jackson Holliday's debut in Boston on April 10. The helium has been let out of the balloon very fast, and you now have fans suggesting that Holliday is overrated, as he has a slash of .059/.111/.059 across his first 36 plate appearances. Obviously, it has been far from an ideal performance, as Holliday has a 50 percent strikeout rate. It just reiterates what I suggested earlier: this game is very hard.
Holliday was one of the safer hitters in the minors, being billed as a 70-grade hitter across multiple outlets. The contact rates and the plate discipline suggested this as well. At some point, it becomes a mental thing, and you have to wonder if Holliday has lost confidence at this point.
Even though it has been far from a slow start, opinions have not changed on him long term. We are talking about someone who just turned 20 years old and has all the talent in the world. Ten games in the majors should not change his outlook given the history of performance. So, let's talk about that.
104 MPH OFF THE BAT.
THATS #1 PROSPECT IN THE LEAGUE JACKSON HOLLIDAY TO ALL OF YOU!!!! pic.twitter.com/NZFApmIaaX
— Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) April 24, 2024
Track Record:
Between four levels as a 19-year-old in 2023, Holliday slashed .323/.442/.499 with 12 home runs, making it to Triple-A by season's end.
Holliday combines a strong feel for the strike zone and good contact skills. Checking in with a chase rate under 20 percent last season shows the elite batting eye as well as making contact on over 82 percent of pitches in the zone.
The only question is, how much power does Holliday get to? He hit 12 home runs last season. He added a ton of extra-base hits, having 30 doubles and nine triples to pair with the 12 home runs. The exit velocities were pretty respectable for a hitter with a smaller build that is 19 years old, as Holliday posted a 91 mph average exit velocity and a 102.3 mph 90th percentile. The average exit velocity is firmly above average, and the 90th percentile is average for the minor leagues.
He also needs to lift the ball more to get into 20+ home run territory, and it shows that the harder he hits the ball, the lower the launch angle. Holliday had just a 6-degree launch angle on balls hit over 95 mph and a -1-degree launch angle to the pull side.
Outlook:
Don't be surprised when Holliday gets sent back to Triple-A. Honestly, it might be the best thing long-term for him. Even if it is just a short stay, he could be back up performing in the majors soon. In a shallower redraft format, I would consider cutting him rather than letting him waste away on your bench.
In a dynasty league, Holliday is a great buy-low. Nothing about the long-term outlook has changed a bit.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Considering Chourio turned 20 years old in March and signed an eight-year, $82 million deal, he has really held his own in the majors so far with the Brewers. The overall slash line won't wow anyone at .213/.264/.375, but he does have four home runs and four stolen bases.
I cautioned people that Chourio was not likely to hit for a high average in his first year in the majors. As a young player, who has struggled with breaking balls from some minor leaguers, he was sure to struggle with advanced breaking balls from MLB pitchers.
None of the underlying data is eye-popping, but Chourio does have a barrel rate of 9.6 percent, which is a very solid number. He has shown flashes of the player he is capable of being long-term.
Jackson Chourio. Star in the Making. pic.twitter.com/7r6951PopE
— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) April 20, 2024
Track Record:
The 2023 season was a tale of two halves. To me, it was clear the tacky ball had a large effect on him in the first half as Chourio spent his season in Biloxi, part of the Southern League. In the first half, he hit just .249/.304/.410 with 11 home runs and 23 stolen bases. The swing-and-miss issues stemmed mostly from changeups, which were moving much more aggressively with the pre-tacked ball. His contact rate in the first half of 75 percent jumped to 81 percent in the second half as Chourio mashed and made his way to Triple-A, finishing the second half with a slash of .324/.379/.538 with 11 home runs in 57 games.
Chourio already gets to big exit velocities and puts the ball out of the park to all fields. His average exit velocity hovered around 91 mph, while his 90th percentile exit velocity sat at 105 mph. Chourio has posted exit velocities as high as 113 mph, which is pretty impressive for his age, all while running hard-hit rates north of 55 percent.
From a plate discipline standpoint, Chourio is quite aggressive and has shown the propensity to chase pitches out of the zone, but he makes up for it with the amount of contact that he makes. As previously mentioned, the contact rate jumped significantly in the second half but was solid even with the tacky ball in play in the Southern League. It is worth noting that despite a high chase rate of 35 percent, he showed a much better feel in Triple-A, chasing just 22 percent of pitches out of the zone.
Outlook:
Chourio is unlikely to be demoted unless things get really bad. He already has a long-term deal with the team, and it only benefits him to stay in the MLB lineup developing. It seems likely that Chourio will continue to develop this year and show flashes of the upside he offers. The power and speed alone should help fantasy managers continue to roster him.
Now is the perfect time to buy in a dynasty league if the person who rosters him is concerned about the strikeouts.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers
Langford is off to the best start in the majors of any of the prospects we are discussing today, and he should be, given he is an advanced 22-year-old college bat. While he does not have a home run yet, he did steal his first base of the year to put him on the board in that category. The slash line of .261/.340/.318 is underwhelming, but the good news is that Langford is getting on base and making good contact.
With an in-zone contact rate of 83.3 percent and a chase rate of 22.8 percent, Langford is showing above-average or better plate discipline skills. His overall contact rate of 80 percent is rather impressive, too.
Track Record:
Langford mashed in his career at Florida, hitting 47 home runs and slashing .363/.471/.746 while striking out just 14.6 percent of the time and walking 15 percent across 610 plate appearances.
Langford does not chase often and has a strong feel for contact in the zone. Chasing just 15 percent of pitches collegiately while making contact on 88 percent of pitches in the zone is rather impressive. Langford’s average exit velocity in college trailed Dylan Crews by a decent margin, but a number sitting near 91 mph is still very impressive, considering his higher-end exit velocities were stellar (110 mph, 90th percentile).
Langford exploded in his pro debut and made himself No. 1 in the draft class and, for some, the top overall prospect. Between four levels and 200 plate appearances, Langford slashed .360/.480/.677 with 10 home runs and 29 extra-base hits.
The underlying data from college carried right over to pro ball in 2023 as Langford made contact at a high clip, posting a zone contact rate north of 85 percent while his overall contact rate sat near 81 percent. The chase rate was right in line with his college number, and his 90th percentile exit velocity was north of 107 mph.
Such a tough break for Wyatt Langford.
Missed his first career HR by inches, then trips and gets robbed of an easy triple. pic.twitter.com/5qE92t24Jm
— Rangers Nation ⚾️ (@rangers__nation) April 25, 2024
Outlook:
With a hitter of Langford's caliber, I expect him to continue to progress and get better throughout the season. The intangibles are all there, and he is on the right track. Having a three-hit game on April 24, Langford showed the potential we have all been longing to see.
I would expect the power to come around as well, as Langford has plenty of hard hits and an above-average barrel rate. Given the career track record, I expect we see more big time home runs soon. Buy Langford where you can, whether it is a redraft or a dynasty.
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