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Thunder Dan Palyo's top NBA prop bets for 11/21/25: expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
We inch closer to the NBA mid-season tournament in December, which means another Friday night of Emirates Cup games in the Association. We have nine games on tap tonight, with several being broadcast nationally and only two late starts on the East Coast.
Heck, we may even have fewer injured players out tonight than usual, too! There are a handful of players marked questionable, and we may not know their statuses until much later in the day, so I am avoiding those spots on focusing on the players that we know are set to play and in matchups where they can produce! I'm on a nice little run with prop picks lately, going 12-3 the last two nights, so let's see if I can keep that momentum going!
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Friday, November 21st. Prop picks can range from individual stats—points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive stats —to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed, but it's always a good idea to shop around, as odds change throughout the day as bets are placed. Let's get to the picks already. I loaded it up for tonight!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 Assists
- Jakob Poeltl over 13.5 Points
- Bennedict Mathurin over 21.5 Points
- Zion Williamson over 4.5 Assists
- Naz Reid over 13.5 Points
- Kyshawn George over 26.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Payton Pritchard over 17.5 Points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 Assists (-125 Fanatics)
We start things off with SGA's assist prop here as the defending champs face off tonight against the rebuilding Utah Jazz. SGA has barely had to break a sweat over the last two weeks, topping 30 minutes just three times in his last 10 games. That puts a damper on trying to bet his points prop, knowing that we likely won't get any fourth-quarter minutes from him, and scoring 30+ in under 30 minutes is no easy task, even for one of the best players in the league.
In games where OKC is in cruise control, SGA has tended to pass the ball more and get others involved. His highest point totals have come in close wins and OKC's one loss this year, while some of his best assist games have come in blowouts. The Thunder have won eight games this season by 15 or more points, and SGA has gone for seven or more dimes in six of those, averaging 7.6 dimes per contest. The Thunder are favored by 16 points tonight in Utah.
He's gone over in four of his last five, and it certainly helps that Utah is allowing the most assists per game to the point guard position.
Jakob Poeltl over 13.5 Points (-105 Fanatics)
We have to attack this number for Poeltl tonight, as the Wizards have been one of the matchups for centers this season. Opposing centers have gone over this number in eight of Washington's last ten games.
Poeltl is starting to round into form lately after an injury had slowed him down for the first few weeks, causing him to miss some time and play fewer minutes. The Raptors' big man has played over 30 minutes in each of his last two starts and has 14 or more points in three of his last four. He just missed against Charlotte with 13 points on Monday, but bounced back with 19 against Philly on Wednesday.
He may be the last option on offense in a very balanced lineup, but being surrounded by playmakers has led to a ton of easy baskets for Poeltl, who is shooting an absurd 73% from the floor this season. Yes, the spread is 14 points in this one, but Poeltl has been so efficient that I wouldn't be surprised if he cashes this for us sometime in the third quarter.
Bennedict Mathurin over 21.5 Points (-125 Fanatics)
The Pacers have to be thrilled that Mathurin is back in the lineup, as they really struggled offensively without him. Andrew Nembhard is a better passer than scorer, and Pascal Siakam was trying to put the team on his back as Indiana simply doesn't have anyone who can score in isolation like Mathurin.
Bennedict Mathurin has scored the second-most points by any player in their first four games of a season in franchise history, trailing Reggie Miller by just one point 🔥
he’s averaging a career-high 27.8 PPG through four games this year. pic.twitter.com/xw9d4syjfm
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) November 20, 2025
Mathurin is a pure scorer and has shown that this season, averaging 27.8 points per game in his first four games. He can score from anywhere on the floor and has the green light to put up as many shots as he wants. He's sitting at a 30% usage rate on the season, and I expect him to continue to be their go-to scorer this year. This prop is still incredibly low, even against a good team like the Cavs. To be fair, the Cavs have not been as good defensively this season, and the Pacers have historically given them fits.
I think it could stay close tonight, and that Mathurin should sail over this number. We will be seeing his points prop around 25 here soon, so take advantage of this while we still can!
Zion Williamson over 4.5 Assists (+125 Fanatics)
Zion returned to the lineup on Wednesday night and played 29 minutes. He looked pretty good as far as his movement out there, and he likely would have played more minutes if the Pelicans weren't down big going into the fourth quarter.
This is a game the Pelicans can actually win tonight as they face another basement-dweller in the West - the Dallas Mavericks. I like the assist prop here as the Pels really don't have a pass-first point guard in the starting lineup. Jeremiah Fears is a scoring guard, Trey Murphy III is a shooter, and Zion is basically playing point-forward.
He's gone for five or more assists in four of six starts this season, and I think he can get us at least five here tonight with a full complement of minutes and a positive matchup. We are getting some nice odds here, so hopefully Zion continues to try to facilitate on offense and get his teammates involved early.
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Naz Reid over 13.5 Points (-110 BetMGM)
After a little slump to start the year, Naz is back to doing what he does best - getting buckets in bunches off the bench.
Reid has poured in 19, 22, and 28 points in his last three games and seems to have cured the shooting woes that troubled him earlier in the season. His role is secure as the sixth-man on this team and he leads the second unit with a healthy 20% usage rate.
Phoenix is not a team to fear defensively, but they have enough offense to keep this game close (just 3.5-point underdogs) so that bodes well for Naz and the other Minnesota core guys getting full run tonight. I am riding the hot hand; this number is far too low for a player who can score as easily as Reid.
Kyshawn George over 26.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-110 DK)
Kyshawn George is probably your favorite NBA player's favorite up-and-coming NBA player. All kidding aside, the casual NBA fan might not know much about George, who is stuck playing on a bad team right now, but the second-year wing has already shown off some impressive improvements to his offensive arsenal this season.
George's usage in this offense has increased, but so has his efficiency. He's taking more shots, but also making them at a higher clip. He's also initiating the offense more often and being used as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, leading to a team-high 4.8 assists.
I will say it over and over, but Kyshawn George’s sophomore leap has a star trajectory
He’s moved differently all year, and that’s thanks to the hours he spent honing his game over the summer in practice and at AmeriCup pic.twitter.com/4WYL9IXvPV https://t.co/a5DxPp6sV4
— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) November 20, 2025
George had a little slump there for a few weeks after a scorching start, but is starting to get back on track lately. He's gone for 32, 40, and 37 PRA in his last three games, with two of those performances coming against pretty good defensive squads (Houston and Minnesota). Toronto's defense isn't anything special, and George can certainly hit this number tonight if he continues to be aggressive on offense.
Payton Pritchard over 17.5 Points (-105 Fanatics )
The last time the Celtics played the Nets was on Tuesday night, and I invested in the wrong guard by betting on Derrick White's prop instead of Pritchard. It was Pritchard who had the better night, scoring 22 points and hitting five threes for his third straight 20+ point outing.
Something has clicked for Pritchard lately, and perhaps it's just getting his confidence back after he struggled badly shooting the basketball for the first few weeks of the season. He's not been shy about launching shots lately, as he's attempted 10 or more threes in each of his last three starts.
With the green light to shoot and a good matchup against one of the worst defenses in the league, I am all about this points prop for Pritchard tonight. If you are feeling really frisky, you can get his three-pointer prop over 3.5 at plus money at pretty much every book, too, and he's hit that one in his last three games as well (5, 8, 5).
NBA Betting Tools & Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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