MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/14/2025)

September 14, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/14/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jackson Merrill, Riley Greene, and Christian Yelich.

Sundays are not just for football, not while we still have the boys of summer crushing long balls every day. Did you see the 490-foot shot that Nick Kurtz hit last night? We might have to make him an auto-bet anytime he's facing a right-handed pitcher at home! No Kurtz in my picks today (facing a lefty), but I do have four more hitters that I love for a homer today.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use them in a round-robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, September 14, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/14/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, September 14:

• Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
• Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
• Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals
• Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres

Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 FanDuel)

Greene has been a beast this year, crushing 34 home runs and driving in 108 runs. We are finally seeing him break out as one of the premier outfielders in baseball, and it's been a lot of fun to watch.

What's also fun to watch is his sweet swing as it makes contact with a misplaced fastball or hanging breaking ball. Greene has been clubbing righties all season with an elite .581 SLG and 22.6% barrel rate. He's got two home runs in his last four games, and I like his chances at another one today against a pretty bad pitcher - Miami's Adam Mazur.

Mazur hasn't had much experience in the big leagues, but what little time he has spent in the majors has ended badly for him. He brings a 6.30 ERA and 1.9 HR/9 mark over 20 innings this season into today's contest. Last season, he pitched to a 7.49 ERA over 33 innings with the Padres, allowing 1.6 HR/9.

Mazur's splits against lefties look exploitable. He's allowed a .660 SLG and .320 ISO while striking out only 10% of the lefties he's faced. Greene's one weakness is a high strikeout rate, but against a low-strikeout guy like Mazur, I like our chances of some violent contact and a home run from the Detroit slugger.

Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel)

Anytime that Miles Mikolas is on the slate, he's a prime candidate to pick against for a home run. Mikolas has allowed 1.5 HR/9 this season and gets smacked particularly hard by LHH, allowing a .498 SLG, .223 ISO, and 15.3% barrel%.

Yelich went deep as recently as Friday night, hitting his 28th home run in what has been another solid season at the plate for the veteran outfielder. He owns a healthy 14% barrel against RHP and should be able to make really good contact against Mikolas today - a pitcher that simply doesn't miss many bats at this stage of his career.

Yelich's recent BvP history against Mikolas looks quite solid. He faced him back in June, going 2-3 against him with a home run and a single. I expect Yelich to get some good swings in against Mikolas, and he has the potential to leave the yard with how well he hits the majority of his pitches.

Ivan Herrera OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+440 FanDuel)

The Cardinals catcher has been on fire this month. He crushed a home run off Jacob Misiorowski yesterday to give him his fourth dinger in August and his second in his last three games. That's now 15 home runs for Herrera despite being limited to just 340 at-bats this season after he missed a significant time with an injury. This kid is quickly becoming one of the best-hitting catchers in the league.

Iván Herrera sends a towering homer over the wall for an early @Cardinals lead 💪 pic.twitter.com/SE1wfU7o1P

— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025

Herrera has been phenomenal against lefties this season and is the veteran southpaw Jose Quintana today. Herrera is sporting a .313 average, .626 SLG, and 21% barrel% against LHP with seven of his homers coming against them in just 83 at-bats. That's a home run every 12 at-bats against LHP!

He profiles very well today against Quintana's pitch mix, especially against his sinker and curveball. Let's see if he can stay hot and send a Quintana offering deep into the seats.

Jackson Merrill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel)

He's back! After missing a good chunk of the season and underperforming (compared to some lofty expectations placed upon him) for much of the year, Merrill looks like he's getting close to returning to the form he showed last year when he was one of the top rookies in the game.

Merrill smacked his 12th home run of the year yesterday, which was his second one in three days and his third bomb in the last week.

Jackson Merrill joins the home run party 😤 pic.twitter.com/MKALV00f9g

— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025

The Padres were playing home run derby last night against Bradley Blalock and the Rockies' bullpen, but of course, my HR pick (Gavin Sheets) didn't get in on the fun! I like Merrill's chances of keeping his hot streak going against German Marquez, who has been serving up dingers to lefties for years now. Marquez is getting crushed by hitters from both sides of the plate this year, and his days as an MLB starter could be winding down.

Lefties hit him the hardest, however, with a .516 SLG, 12.1% barrel%, and 50.7% HH%. He goes primarily with his fastball, sinker, and knuckle curveball to lefties, and Merrill has shown that he can handle all three.

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