X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

A Year To Remember: Pitchers Who Had Career Years In 2022

martin perez fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news waiver wire pitchers

With spring training up and running, and fantasy drafts underway, it’s as good a time as any to rehash some notable 2022 pitching performances. We're looking to the guys who broke out with career years last season.

Declaring an active player’s career season is something of a backhanded compliment. Yes, it means they had a great year and likely realized their potential on the field. For that much, this distinction awards flowers. However, on the flip side, a career season assumes that we’ve already seen the best output they have to offer. The player may not perform worse going forward, but it’s unlikely they will ever surpass this alleged ceiling of a campaign.

This article explores five pitchers who showcased career seasons last year and lends some insight into how you should feel about them heading into the 2023 campaign.

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

 Martín Pérez, 297 ADP

Let’s start with what feels like the most clear-cut case study. Prior to 2022, Pérez had only posted an ERA under 4.00 once in ten seasons at the MLB level. That came during a promising 2013 campaign that featured a 3.62 ERA, 114 ERA+, 1.335 WHIP, and 2.68 BB/9. That was enough to land Martín a sixth-place finish in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. Those numbers would also remain career-best figures for Pérez for nearly a decade.

Then last season arrived, and with it a wave of success well beyond anything we’ve ever seen from Pérez. He posted career-best numbers, like a 2.89 ERA, 136 ERA+, 1.258 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, .289 wOBA, 4.3 Barrel %, .346 xSLG, and a 20.6 K% across 32 starts and 196.1 innings pitched. He was a master of weak contact and the breakout performance netted Martín his first All-Star Game appearance.

While the acclaim is well deserved for Pérez, it’s a reasonable assumption that he won’t be able to top his 2022 output. For starters, despite the improvement, he did outperform many of his advanced metrics, such as a (still respectable) 3.59 xERA and .380 xFIP, while his 8.4 BB% and 88.2 MPH Average Exit Velocity fell right in line with his career average. He improved, but not as much as his surface numbers indicate. Further, with Martín entering his age-32 season, it only further bolsters his case for regression.

Fortunately, as a soft contact pitcher Pérez’s production shouldn’t fall off a cliff with age – just don’t expect a repeat of his 2022 performance. With an ADP presently sitting at 297 you won’t have to reach far if you want to roster Martín, though it is important to understand the limitations of his ceiling.

 

 Tyler Anderson, 242.3 ADP

If Martín Pérez was a master of soft contact in 2022, then Tyler Anderson was the king of soft contact. His 28.5 HardHit% and 85 MPH Average Exit Velocity were downright elite, ranking first among qualified starting pitchers. That paired with a minuscule 4.8 BB% and 95th percentile Chase Rate made Anderson a natural All-Star Game selection – the first of his career.

Seemingly across the board, 2022 featured career-best numbers for Tyler, including a 2.57 ERA, 1.002 WHIP, 163 ERA+, 3.31 FIP, .225 xBA, .275 xwOBA, and a 35.3% Chase Rate. Even by old-school standards (though largely meaningless), his 15-5 record was a pleasing sight and his 178.2 IP represented yet another career-high mark. It was a surprisingly robust output for Anderson at first glance, though perhaps spending four of his six prior MLB seasons pitching in Colorado, where his advanced metrics routinely outperformed his surface numbers, did his fantasy perception no favors.

All that said, Anderson may simply be a better pitcher than he was given credit for heading into last season. In fact, his 2016 rookie campaign, featuring a 3.14 xERA, 137 ERA+, 84.9 MPH Average Exit Velocity, 26.2 HardHit %, and a 3.64 xFIP across 114.1 IP, is not too dissimilar from his most recent output. Still, Tyler is entering his age-33 season, and with a career 20.3 K% and no history as a workhorse arm – which will only be exacerbated by the Angels’ six-man rotation approach -- it’s hard to get too excited about his upside. Anderson’s ADP sits at 242.3, which feels appropriate.

 Justin Verlander, 30.7 ADP

Here’s where this article takes a detour from obvious to controversial. Defining Verlander’s peak season is incredibly subjective. According to fWAR, Justin’s career year was his 2009 campaign. With respect to accolades, his 2011 production earned him the American League’s Cy Young Award and MVP honors. This guy has several “career years” that predate Statcast’s integration into MLB. In short, JV has no definite ceiling – but it seems we finally got it in 2022.

Perhaps the most widely accepted efficacy metric for pitchers is ERA and its derivatives. In that regard, 2022 was a breakthrough for Justin, cruising to a career-best 1.75 ERA and a staggering 220 ERA+ (previous career-high 179 ERA+ in 2019), illustrating just how much better than everyone else he was. His career-low 0.6 HR/9 and 1.5 BB/9 marks were further evidence of his success.

At age 39, and coming off a lengthy Tommy John surgery recovery, Justin’s performance was jaw-dropping last year. While he did sacrifice somewhat in terms of K% (27.8%) and workload (175 IP), the sheer dominance was undeniable. Verlander only surrendered more than 3 earned runs in an outing twice all season. It was consistent and unwavering production, and, of course, resulted in another Cy Young Award.

As we enter Verlander’s age-40 campaign, it wouldn’t be right to declare that he’ll finally hit his wall, because he is simply a different breed. Still, it’s not likely Justin will surpass what he did in 2022, and with declining strikeouts and a conservative workload, the fantasy ceiling peripherals are not ideal enough to suggest grabbing him too early. His ADP is currently 30.7, which isn’t unreasonable. Verlander’s floor seems relatively stable, though pursuing higher upside arms may be more advantageous.

 

 Tony Gonsolin, 132.7 ADP

Continuing with potentially spicy takes, Tony Gonsolin’s 2022 felt like a ceiling performance. Across 24 starts and 130.1 IP, he produced a phenomenal 16-1 record, 2.14 ERA, and 196 ERA+. At only 28 years old, a career year may be a premature declaration, but Gonsolin’s surface stats significantly outperformed most of the advanced metrics.

Though most of Tony’s numbers from last season look strong, they really don’t represent the significant step forward that his elite ERA would suggest. To illustrate this, acknowledge that many of Gonsolin’s 2022 numbers are in line with his career averages -- .220 xBA (.220 career xBA), 35 HardHit% (35.4 career HardHit%), .276 xwOBA (.284 career xwOBA), .342 xSLG (.352 career xSLG), 5.6 Barrel % (5.3 career Barrel%), 23.9 K% (24.8 career K%), 89 MPH Average Exit Velocity (88.7 MPH career Average Exit Velocity). You will notice that many of these figures are worse than his career totals. In fact, the only truly distinguishing improvement to Gonsolin’s game last season was a 7.0 BB%.

All this is to say, Gonsolin is a solid pitcher, but the results last season were more of an outlier than a genuine performance boost. He’s young enough to leave room for improvement, though regression from his 2022 output is almost a certainty. Further, Tony lacks strikeout or workhorse upside to make him a true fantasy stud. His current 132.7 ADP feels like a bit of a reach given the limited ceiling.

 

 Merrill Kelly, 253.3 ADP

It may not look as shiny as the examples mentioned above, but 2022 was a peak season for Kelly. Sporting a 3.37 ERA and 1.138 WHIP over 200.1 IP, it’s no wonder Merrill carried so much heat heading into last year’s trade deadline. A move to a contender never materialized, but his reputation as a reliable ace started to develop. It wouldn’t be fair to say that distinction wasn’t earned, though realistically there’s not a whole lot to get riled about with Merrill.

Kelly is a solid arm but projecting a front-end caliber of production from him is a bad bet. Most of his stats range from league average to slightly above league average. Perhaps Merrill’s most marquee metrics were his 36.5 HardHit%, .296 xwOBA, and .230 xBA. Those are respectable numbers. However, Kelly’s below-average 88.5 MPH Average Exit Velocity, .383 xSLG, 23.6 Whiff %, and 8.3 Barrel % are among many other indicators that undermine his surface-level success.

Entering his age-34 season, there’s no good reason to assume Kelly will repeat his 2022 performance. Counting on him to be a key rotational piece like he was last year is wishful thinking. Merrill’s 253.3 ADP is by no means egregious, just understand his incoming regression and middling strikeout stuff will hinder his ceiling.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice

LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Marc-Andre Fleury2 hours ago

Takes Loss Against Flyers
Matthew Boldy2 hours ago

Scores Twice Against Flyers
Bryce Young2 hours ago

Impresses At Pro Day
Eddy Piñeiro2 hours ago

Panthers Re-Sign Eddy Pineiro To Two-Year Deal
Tony Jones Jr.3 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Broncos
Alex Cobb3 hours ago

Might Not Be Ready For Opening Day
Franz Wagner4 hours ago

Won't Return On Thursday
Bradley Beal4 hours ago

Won't Suit Up On Friday
Tyrese Haliburton4 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Friday
Eric Gordon4 hours ago

Gets Starting Nod On Thursday
Kelly Oubre4 hours ago

Jr. Won't Return On Thursday
Deandre Ayton4 hours ago

To Miss Next Two Games
Terry Rozier4 hours ago

Doubtful To Return On Thursday
Mychal Givens4 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Josh Winckowski5 hours ago

To Begin Season In Bullpen
Drey Jameson5 hours ago

Roughed Up On Thursday
Michael Soroka5 hours ago

Optioned To Minors
Drew Rucinski5 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Daniel Lynch5 hours ago

Removed Early On Thursday
Rhys Hoskins6 hours ago

Tears ACL
Spencer Steer6 hours ago

Expected To Be Reds Opening Day 3B
Will Brennan6 hours ago

Standing Out This Spring
Brice Turang6 hours ago

Impressing This Spring
Jared Shuster6 hours ago

Having Torrid Spring
Logan O'Hoppe6 hours ago

Could Make Angels Opening Day Roster
Mitchell Robinson7 hours ago

To Play On Thursday
Jalen Brunson7 hours ago

Officially Out For Thursday
LeBron James7 hours ago

Begins On-Court Activity
Jalen Brunson7 hours ago

Uncertain For Thursday
Jalen Duren7 hours ago

Removed From Injury Report
Esteban Quiroz8 hours ago

Phillies Acquire Esteban Quiroz From Cubs
Kyle Tucker8 hours ago

Expects To Be Ready For Opening Day
Will Levis8 hours ago

Meeting With Panthers Thursday
Ryan Succop8 hours ago

Buccaneers Release Ryan Succop
Ezekiel Elliott8 hours ago

Narrows His List Down To Three Teams
Hunter Brown8 hours ago

Still Not Throwing
Brandon Nimmo8 hours ago

Triples In Minor-League Game
Jared Spurgeon8 hours ago

Returns From Illness Thursday
Anthony Duclair8 hours ago

Available Again Thursday
Jason Heyward9 hours ago

Officially On Opening Day Roster
Ville Husso9 hours ago

Out With A Lower-Body Injury
Jimmy Nelson9 hours ago

To Open Year On Injured List
Tom Murphy9 hours ago

Back In Lineup
Darcy Kuemper9 hours ago

Back In Capitals Crease Thursday
Jarred Kelenic9 hours ago

Back In Lineup
John Carlson9 hours ago

Set To Return Thursday
Josh Anderson9 hours ago

Out On Thursday
Oliver Ekman-Larsson9 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Lukas Dostal10 hours ago

In Goal Thursday For Anaheim
Logan Thompson10 hours ago

Starting Thursday Against Flames
Joel Hofer10 hours ago

Guards Cage Against Detroit
Scottie Barnes10 hours ago

Could Be Out Again Friday
Jeremy Swayman10 hours ago

Confirmed Starting Goalie Thursday
Precious Achiuwa11 hours ago

Regarded As Questionable For Friday
Jake Allen11 hours ago

Between The Pipes Against Boston
Gary Trent11 hours ago

Jr. Questionable For Friday
Tommy Sweeney11 hours ago

Giants Signing Tommy Sweeney
Marc-Andre Fleury11 hours ago

Protects Crease Thursday
Norman Powell11 hours ago

Misses A Ninth Consecutive Game
Zay Flowers11 hours ago

To Meet With Saints, Giants
Bryce Young11 hours ago

Meets With Raiders
Mark Williams11 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday
DeAndre Hopkins11 hours ago

Bills Headline Trade Market For DeAndre Hopkins
Ty Johnson11 hours ago

Jets Bring Back Ty Johnson
Mitchell Robinson11 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday
KJ Hamler11 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Months With Torn Pec
Jamison Crowder11 hours ago

Giants Agree To Terms With Jamison Crowder
Mecole Hardman13 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
San Francisco 49ers13 hours ago

49ers Sign Austin Bryant To One-Year Deal
Maycee Barber13 hours ago

Can Continue Her Flyweight Ascent
Andrea Lee13 hours ago

In Need Of Victory To Keep Momentum Going
Detroit Lions13 hours ago

Jalen Reeves-Maybin Returns To Lions
Damien Harris13 hours ago

James Cook, Damien Harris To Share Backfield
MMA13 hours ago

Manel Kape On The Hunt For Fourth Straight Victory Saturday
Tony Pollard13 hours ago

Signs Franchise Tag
Alex Perez13 hours ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Cincinnati Bengals13 hours ago

Bengals Have Had Trade Talks Centered Around Jonah Williams
Albert Duraev13 hours ago

Can Rebound With A Victory
C.J. Ham13 hours ago

Vikings Give C.J. Ham A Two-Year Extension
Chidi Njokuani13 hours ago

Hopes To Get Back In Win Column
Odell Beckham Jr.13 hours ago

Jets Interest In Odell Beckham Jr. "Very Real"
Nikola Jokic15 hours ago

Leads Nuggets To 14-Point Win
Pascal Siakam15 hours ago

Leads All Scorers In Losing Effort
Jaren Jackson15 hours ago

Jr. Scores Season-High 37 Points In Win
J.T. Compher16 hours ago

Grabs Two Points Against Pittsburgh
Sidney Crosby16 hours ago

Makes History By Reaching 30 Goals
Jeff Carter16 hours ago

Pots Two Goals In Victory Over Colorado
Nick Schmaltz16 hours ago

Posts Two Assists Wednesday
Clayton Keller16 hours ago

Stays Hot With Two Goals
Leon Draisaitl16 hours ago

Hands Out Four Assists
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

A Hard Fade In Austin
Sam Burns2 days ago

Hard To Trust At WGC Dell Match Play
Max Homa2 days ago

A Strong Contender In Austin
Tom Hoge3 days ago

A Bracket-Buster In Match Play
Hideki Matsuyama3 days ago

Doesn't Perform In Match Play
Kamaru Usman3 days ago

Unsuccessful In Bid To Recapture Title
Leon Edwards3 days ago

Defends Crown At UFC 286
Viktor Hovland3 days ago

Has Struggled In Match Play
Rafael Fiziev3 days ago

Has Strong Showing But Takes Loss
Justin Gaethje3 days ago

Puts On Another Highlight-Reel Performance
Tyrrell Hatton3 days ago

The Favorite In His Group
Bryan Barberena3 days ago

Suffers Second Straight Submission Loss
Gunnar Nelson3 days ago

Scores Impressive Finish At UFC 286
Will Zalatoris3 days ago

Needs Birdies At WGC Match Play
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Can Advance At WGC Match Play
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

May Struggle At WGC Match Play
Chris Kirk3 days ago

Draws A Bit Unlucky At WGC Match Play
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

Has Good Chance At WGC Match Play
Brian Harman3 days ago

Has Putter's Chance To Contend At WGC
Tommy Fleetwood3 days ago

Has Challenge At WGC Match Play
Casey O'Neill3 days ago

Takes First Defeat Against Former Champion
Jennifer Maia3 days ago

Earns Decision Win Over Undefeated Opponent
Roman Dolidze3 days ago

Suffers Setback With Decision Loss
Marvin Vettori3 days ago

Picks Up Decision Win
Kyle Busch4 days ago

Finishes In Top 10 At Atlanta
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Finishes Strong In Atlanta
Erik Jones4 days ago

Gets His First Top-10 Finish Of The Season
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Bounces Back From Speeding Penalty
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Has A Strong Showing
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Hangs in For Fifth Place At Atlanta
Corey Lajoie4 days ago

Corey LaJoie Uses Course To Advantage On Sunday
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Ends Up With Another Top Five Result
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Brad Keselowski Noses Christopher Bell Out For Second
Joey Logano4 days ago

Goes From Pole To Win Sunday
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Starts 23rd
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Starts 24th At The AmBetter Health 400
AJ Allmendinger5 days ago

Eyes Another Strong Finish
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Eyes Back-To-Back Superspeedway Wins
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

May Be Overlooked
Erik Jones5 days ago

Is A Value Play At Atlanta
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Seeks Better Results
Noah Gragson5 days ago

Might Surprise At Atlanta Motor Speedway
Austin Dillon5 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Atlanta
Ty Dillon5 days ago

Hoping To Keep Car Running At Atlanta
NASCAR5 days ago

J.J. Yeley Starts 34th Sunday At Ambetter Health 400
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF