RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for The Players Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Players Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Sawgrass
7,189 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded Rye - Think of your Bent/Poa mixtures)
TPC Sawgrass has always been a challenging course to handicap. You don't have to look any further than the erratic course history of every golfer in the field to realize the volatility is heightened at the venue, but the move from May to March should provide more predictably since the facility was always best suited to be played in colder weather conditions.
The summer temperature in May gave us a Bermuda surface that was still dormant (but playable) from the winter and created this fiery test that made stopping your irons on these smaller-than-average greens nearly impossible. I want to make it clear that the fast/lightning surface that we have become accustomed to over the years will still be in play (thank you to the SubAir system), but more of where I am going with this is that the Bermuda grass gets overseeded on all parts of the course, creating much softer landing areas that allow shot-shaping and control with your irons from anywhere on the track.
Strokes gained around the green will still be amplified because of the smaller putting surfaces, but it is hard to weigh properly since shaved run-off areas allow multiple options to be considered when attempting to get up and down. There are 17 water hazards and 88 bunkers that are put into place to cause havoc, and while the rough is anything but penal, the Pete Dye nature will cause a handful of forced lay-ups for the field. Golfers that can be creative, salvage par, avoid critical mistakes and control their irons will be most equipped to find success at this grueling test, but it is tough to find quantifiable data that remains pertinent at Sawgrass year-over-year.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Sawgrass | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 278 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 63% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 53% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.63 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Weighted Tee-T0-Green (20%)
- SG Total TPC (7.5%)
- SG Total Par 72s Under 7,200 Yards (10%)
- Fast/Lightning Greens (10%)
- Weighted Scrambling (15%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (15%)
- Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance (10%)
- Ball-Striking (12.5%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
This week, there are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember this is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Jon Rahm ($11,100)
I honestly can't tell if Jon Rahm is about to put it all together and win a title or if we are in the middle of watching a meltdown that will end with him in an insane asylum because of his short game. In his six tournaments on American soil in 2022, Rahm has averaged 8.53 shots to the field with his driver and irons, which might not even be doing him justice when we consider he has produced 10.9 strokes per start over his last three contests. The ball-striking keeps improving. The results are getting progressively worse. Something has to give.
Collin Morikawa ($10,700)
I will be the first to admit that I have been much lower on Collin Morikawa than the rest of the community throughout his career. I don't think that is a bad thing to acknowledge since popularity often equates to reduced price tags in the betting market, but I don't have a massive issue with where Morikawa is located this weekend at TPC Sawgrass. The American ranks inside the top-13 in every statistical category that I attached a weight, and a hypothetical finish of 21st place in 2021 would have been enough to move him into being the top man on my model.
Justin Thomas ($10,400)
There are a handful of trends going against Justin Thomas this weekend. You will hear a million times that nobody has ever defended the Players Championship, but perhaps more problematic than that, of the last 12 winners, only Webb Simpson, who finished 16th here in 2019, has recorded a top-55 result in their next start at Sawgrass. Sure, that isn't ideal when trying to make a case for the 28-year-old to repeat, but as you know by now, trends have never meant much to me when putting together lineups or bets. Thomas ranks first overall in my model from an overall sense and grades as the top player in the field in weighted tee-to-green, weighted scrambling and weighted proximity. We saw what happened last year at the course when the 14-time winner squeaked out 1.6 shots with his flat stick, so while the putter hasn't exactly been ideal as of late, it likely wouldn't take much for him to win if he can get anything going with that aspect of his game.
Other Thoughts: Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland are the contrarian pivots of the group.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Dustin Johnson ($9,800)
I think you are dart-throwing the top of the board when you take Dustin Johnson at $9,800, but we have to find ways to get unique and different if we want to succeed at a tournament where ownership is getting pushed to all the same areas. I keep hearing what a popular bet and DFS target Johnson will be this weekend in Florida, but the early returns haven't exactly told that story. Sure, he will be marginally more popular in the outright market, but most gamers seem to be looking elsewhere at his going rate on DraftKings. It is hard to know what we are getting from the big-hitting American after losing with his irons in five of six starts, but it is worth noting that the plurality of vital scoring chances will come with a short iron in hand - a club the former Masters champion has always excelled with during his career.
Xander Schauffele ($9,700)
Xander Schauffele is probably my preferred target in the $9,000 range for a few reasons. Players have talked about playing to the center of these greens because of how small they are in diameter, and if you take that approach with every iron shot, you should give yourself makeable birdie looks. Schauffele is the king of high proximity numbers but outstanding GIR totals because of his safe nature, and I have noticed a trend that he plays better when given smaller greens for the reason I mentioned above.
Other Thoughts: I will be monitoring ownership on Patrick Cantlay ($9,900), Scottie Scheffler ($9,200) and Jordan Spieth ($9,000).
Contrarian DraftKings DFS Players To Consider
$8,900 - $7,100 Range
Pricing is so soft that it doesn't accomplish anything to write about the same players as everyone else. You don't need to hear for the 1,000th time why Daniel Berger is underpriced. We all can see that with his nearly 20% mark on Monday. Instead, I will try to pinpoint a few golfers where I am much higher than consensus. I think that will help find pivots better than a meaningless article of trendy names.
Webb Simpson ($7,600)
The 2018 winner of the Players Championship rides into the week with minimal fanfare after a quiet finish to last year and a reduced schedule to begin 2022. Simpson hasn't been seen since the Sony Open in January - an event he typically finds success but faltered to a worrisome 61st place result after losing 5.4 strokes with his ball-striking. I do want to note that the 36-year-old just started hitting balls again last week after going through rehab to fix an issue stemming from a bulging disk in his neck, but sometimes the unknown can be worth a shot in the dark on a golfer that knows a course well. Simpson's upside will always be enticing to me when we can grab him in the $7,000 range, and he ranks inside the top five of this field on rainy/windy courses.
Abraham Ancer ($7,600)
Abraham Ancer leaves something to be desired with his recent form, but the weighted combination of Pete Dye production, strokes gained total in the wind, play at TPC courses and Par 72s under 7,200 yards rates the 31-year-old ninth in this field. If you are curious, the names ahead of him are Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson, John Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Paul Casey and Rory McIlroy.
Russell Henley ($7,400)
Most gamers will see four missed cuts in five starts at the Players for why Russell Henley is priced at $7,400, but there are two top-25 finishes for him if we stretch the data back slightly further. Henley has gained tee-to-green in nine straight starts and ranks inside the top-20 of this field for weighted proximity, GIR percentage, driving accuracy, bogey avoidance, strokes gained at TPC tracks and weighted tee-to-green.
Justin Rose ($7,300)
Losing with all facets of your game like Justin Rose did at the Arnold Palmer is not ideal, but nothing was worse than negative-0.8 shots to the field. I sometimes feel like these can be decent buy-low opportunities when a player isn't as far away as the perception might lead you to believe, and Rose ranks inside the top-25 in weighted proximity of this stacked tournament.
Si Woo Kim ($7,300)
Si Woo Kim was leading the tour in consecutive rounds of shooting par or better before a slip-up at the Genesis, but nine straight made cuts and two top-nine finishes at Sawgrass in his past four attempts will make the South Korean a difficult option to ignore at $7,300. Kim is a Pete Dye specialist that excels on par-fives, and anything around 10 percent isn't high enough for the upside he possesses.
Corey Conners ($7,300)
There is a ton of sharp money that continues to pour in on Corey Conners, who is down to 50/1 at some of the better offshore books out there. Most markets have Conners as more of an $8,000+ golfer when comparing him to the counterparts he is matched against, and while he is going to be popular, it is easy to understand why.
$7,000 (Or Less) Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $7,000/$6,000 golfers.
Tom Hoge ($7,000), Brian Harman ($6,900), Keegan Bradly ($6,900), Jhonattan Vegas ($6,800), Sebastian Munoz ($6,700), Aaron Wise ($6,600), K.H. Lee ($6,300), Thomas Pieters ($6,300)
Win Big With RotoBaller
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