Five Very Deep Guard Sleepers - Fantasy Basketball

September 30, 2021

These five guards have immense fantasy upside heading into the 2021-2022 season but have fallen outside of the top-150 in consensus ADP.

It's almost time! After three months with no basketball, the 2021-2022 NBA season is set to tip-off in late October.

In the coming days, players and coaches should begin migrating back to their local markets - except for Ben Simmons of course (sorry Sixers fans) - in order to partake in training camp, preseason, and ultimately the regular season. Truly exciting times we're living in!

The return of hoops can only mean one thing: Fantasy Basketball is back! While most know who the superstars are, being able to identify sleepers in the later rounds of your draft is key in determining the success of your team. Let's take a look at five guards who are currently being drafted outside of the top-150 but could bolster your roster throughout the season.

Reggie Jackson (PG - LAC) - Yahoo ADP of 179

Jackson is arguably the biggest sleeper in this year's draft and I'm not sure why. Did everyone forget what happened when Kawhi Leonard went down with a torn ACL in last years' playoffs? Jackson stepped up big time. He posted 21.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.6 steals in 37.6 minutes across the final eight playoff games and helped bring the Clippers two wins away from an NBA Finals appearance. The Clips' front office certainly didn't forget, as they made sure to bring him back on a two-year, $22 million deal in the offseason.

Kawhi's recovery from the torn ACL will knock him out for most, if not all of the 2021-22 campaign, and Patrick Beverley was sent to Minnesota in the offseason. As a result, there's a real possibility that Jackson flirts with 35 minutes a night to open the season and finishes as the second leading scorer behind Paul George.

To get a better view of what to expect, let's look at Jackson's numbers in 15 games without Leonard and Beverley in the lineup last season: 14.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 0.8 combined blocks and steals in just under 32 minutes per game. We should expect similar numbers this season with a slight increase in scoring out of sheer necessity. Remember, Jackson was able to finish as a top-60 guy in 2015-16 on the backs of 18.8 points, 6.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds, and 0.8 combined blocks and steals. He could certainly flirt with those numbers this season.

Currently being selected outside the top-175 according to the latest ADP, Jackson could easily finish as a top-100 guy if he can stay healthy. Take advantage of the discount on draft day.

De'Anthony Melton (PG, SG - MEM) - Undrafted

Melton has been a per-36 monster over his three-year career. The only problem? A lack of playing time. He's been the victim of a backcourt logjam in Memphis and has yet to see more than 20.1 minutes per game in three years. Melton hasn't let this stop him from becoming a better basketball player, however, as he improved in many categories last season. After shooting 30 percent and 28 percent respectively from three in his first two seasons, he sunk 41 percent of his triples on nearly double the amount of attempts.

The Grizzlies let Grayson Allen go in the offseason and while it's not significant, his absence leaves 25.1 minutes on the wing up for grabs, meaning Melton could set a new career-high in minutes played. As a matter of fact, in the 20 games that Allen missed last season, Melton averaged 21.1 minutes. Slow and steady! In all seriousness, the Grizzlies did pay Melton $34 million over four years back in 2020 and they happily let Allen walk in free agency. I really believe Melton could flirt with 25 minutes per game serving as the primary backup to Dillon Brooks and set career-high marks along the way. While he's not someone I feel comfortable drafting inside the first 10 rounds, his mammoth upside makes for a fine late-round selection.

I've said it countless times but maybe linking a tweet showcasing Melton's Per-36 numbers last season will somehow inspire Taylor Jenkins to give him some real playing time. A man can dream.

Killian Hayes (PG, DET) - Undrafted

No sugar coating it, Hayes was a massive disappointment last season. His poor play stings a little more when you realize the Pistons used a top-7 pick to select him in 2020. He posted 6.8 points, 5.3 assists, 1.7 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 3.2 turnovers across 26 total games and shot an abysmal 35 percent from the field and 27 percent from three. To make matters worse, he suffered a labral tear in his right hip early in the year and missed 46 games as a result. It was the absolute rock bottom.

Despite the horrid numbers, I do believe he can return to fantasy relevance based on a couple of things. For starters, his 5.3 assists per game were nice, no matter how you slice it. It was actually good enough to tie Tyrese Haliburton for second among all rookies last season. Hayes was drafted to be a playmaker and he did show signs of that when he was healthy.

His presence on the defensive end of the floor was encouraging as well. Hayes was known for being a terrific on-ball defender coming into the league and his 6'5" height along with 6'8" wingspan certainly helps. He averaged a combined 1.4 steals and blocks per game and that should only increase as he sees more playing time.

Looking ahead to this season, the Pistons traded Delon Wright to the Hawks, which in my opinion, is a sign of confidence in Hayes putting it together. They also selected Cade Cunningham at number one overall in the draft and it's no secret that he will handle the playmaking burden early on. The truth of the matter is that Hayes doesn't need to score 20 points a night to hold fantasy value. If he improves his efficiency, plays good defense, and dishes out 5-8 assists per game, he would be worth a roster spot in most 8 or 9-cat leagues.

Currently undrafted according to the latest ADP, Hayes is beaming with upside and is someone worth taking a flier on with your last pick. In case you needed any more convincing, when asked what his main focus has been in the offseason Hayes replied, "Definitely shooting, I worked a lot on my shooting, footwork, and using my body. Defensively, just being really a dog and just playing hard defense. I got my footwork way better, putting in work every day in the weight room. I'm really working on all-around aspects of the game, but my main focus has been shooting and ball-handling, just being more physical on the floor."

The breakout is coming.

Devin Vassell (SG, SAS) - Undrafted

It seems like the entire fantasy community has forgotten about Vassell heading into his second professional season. I mean, his rookie numbers certainly don't jump off the page, and the Spurs didn't pay Doug McDermott $42 million to ride the bench. So what has me buzzing over the second-year pro from Florida State? His defense.

Vassell's instincts and abilities on the defensive side of the ball led to him being the first rookie since Kawhi Leonard to crack the Spurs' rotation immediately. Check out his recovery on this specific play after the defender set a pick on him:

Vassell only saw 17.0 minutes per game in his first season but started seven games and saw 20+ minutes 27 times. With DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills, and Rudy Gay no longer in the picture, the Spurs will need to replace nearly 80 minutes from those three combined, and Vassell's aforementioned defensive ability should put him in the lead for more playing time. While it's a small sample size, Vassell posted 14 points, six rebounds, four assists, one steal, and one block across 33 minutes in his lone game without DeRozan and Gay in the lineup. We can't expect Vassell to clear 30 minutes per game just yet, but 25 minutes seems absolutely reasonable.

As for his offensive ability, Vassell averaged 11.6 points per-36 minutes last season and he should sniff a double-digit scoring average this season. That, along with his elite defense, makes him an interesting option for late in drafts.

Isaac Okoro (SG, CLE) - Yahoo ADP of 170

Did you know that Okoro led all rookies in minutes per game last year? The former top-five pick was given a hefty workload right out of the gate and he responded well, finishing with averages of 9.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 combined blocks and steals. While impressive, those numbers are cute compared to what he posted over the final 13 games: 15.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 35 minutes per game. His end-of-season tear also included a 32-point outburst against the Suns back in May.

When all was said and done, Okoro was named to the Second-Team All-Rookie team and became one of three players in Cavaliers history to score at least 500 points and make 50 threes while recording 50 blocks and 20 steals in their first season.

I truly believe that Okoro's performance over the final stretch of the season inspired enough confidence in the front office to part ways with Larry Nance Jr. and Taurean Prince, as both were traded in the offseason. Let's see how Okoro fared in 18 games without Prince and Nancy Jr. in the lineup last season: 13.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.3 blocks and steals while getting up 12 shot attempts per game. Solid numbers for a rookie.

The additions of Lauri Markkanen and Evan Mobley may make it difficult for Okoro to reach 12 field goal attempts a night going forward, but he should have more than the 8.3 shot attempts he had as a rookie last season.

Like most of the other guys on this list, Okoro will likely be there at the end of drafts, meaning there is no reason to reach for him at the moment.

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