The Grass IS Greener: Free Agent Moves that Will Increase Value

June 19, 2021

Justin Carter looks at NFL free agents with new homes in 2021 that could become fantasy football risers and undervalued draft targets.

We've had a couple of months to fully digest what happened with NFL free agency and see how the NFL Draft impacted things, so now it's time to reflect on some of the changes around the NFL.

No player leaves one team for another and finds himself playing the exact same role. New teammates, new coaching, and an added year of development and/or wear-and-tear mean that something will always change. Value goes up or value goes down.

Today, let's look at five players that changed teams this offseason who should find themselves in a better position now than they were in before.

Kendrick Bourne (WR, New England Patriots)

While I was going to write about Nelson Agholor initially, I started wondering if Agholor would actually be in a better position this year. I think he's New England's best receiver, but will this offense be prolific enough for him to actually be better?

Maybe not. But that's where Bourne comes in.

Coming over from the 49ers, Bourne should be competing for heavy snaps on this Patriots squad. With the Niners, Bourne felt like he was always the last resort play for the team, even if he wound up producing when given the chance.

Last year, Bourne had a 63 percent snap rate, but those numbers came in a really uneven way:

Some games, Bourne played a ton. In other games, he didn't. 24.4 percent of his receptions came in two of the four games where he played over 80 percent of the snaps, for example. That lack of consistent snaps meant that it was hard to really trust Bourne in fantasy.

Will that change in New England?

Well, *motions to the Patriots depth chart, per OurLads*

Unless you're buying into N'Keal Harry actually being good, there are three names on this list that deserve to see consistent, starter-level snaps. Bourne is one of them. For that reason alone, his stock is way up in my head.

Granted, this doesn't mean I'll be drafting him in, say, a 10-team league. On Sleeper right now, Bourne is being drafted as the WR106, which is obviously outside of where you'll be drafting a player in any normal-sized league. But in a deeper league, I think there's some interesting appeal here with Bourne. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think he winds up being a solid WR4/5 play that can get you through the tough weeks.

Tevin Coleman (RB, New York Jets)

Tevin Coleman arrived in San Francisco with a lot of hype behind him, with the hope that his move from the Falcons to the Niners would be the thing that unlocked his full potential.

But after a decent debut season in San Fran that saw Coleman play 14 games with 137 carries for 544 yards and six touchdowns plus catch 21 passes for 180 yards and a score, things went bad in 2020.

Coleman missed eight games with a knee sprain. And in the eight games he played, he produced...well, nearly nothing. 28 carries for 53 yards -- an impressive 1.9 yards per attempt! -- and four catches for 34 yards.

Of course, Coleman had some things working against him, like the 49ers having a crowded backfield led by Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Still, finishing fifth on the team in rushing attempts is a disaster for a player who two years ago seemed like he'd be a great fit on this team.

Now, Coleman heads to the Jets. He has Lamical Perine ahead of him on the depth chart and guys like Ty Johnson, Michael Carter, and Josh Adams on the team too, but this is about as good a landing spot as there could have been because there's no clear No. 1 back on this team.

Not that Coleman is a guarantee to be that guy. His 4.45 40-yard dash ranked in the 91st percentile, but that's been a few years now so we can't assume Coleman still has that kind of breakaway speed, especially when looking at last year's numbers.

But if you want to take a late-round risk on someone who could wind up starting and seeing the majority of the snaps at running back, Coleman's an option. That's a big improvement from what he was doing last year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, Washington Football Team)

Fitzpatrick started seven games last year for the Miami Dolphins. In those seven starts, he completed 68.64 percent of his passes for 1,792 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He averaged 256 passing yards per game.

The Washington Football Team in the regular season played 16 games last season. Their quarterbacks completed 64.7 percent of their passes and averaged 216.6 yards per game, with 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

Fitzpatrick is a 38-year-old journeyman quarterback who hasn't spent more than two years on the same team since he finished a four-year stint in Buffalo in 2012. But the Football Team is trying to get back to the postseason in 2021 and they seem ready to sink or swim with Fitzpatrick rather than hand the reins to Taylor Heinicke, who had a strong playoff showing for the team last season but also has started a total of two games ever at the NFL level.

Washington has a solid group of skill players around Fitzpatrick. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel make for an intriguing receiver duo, while tight end Logan Thomas exploded onto the scene last season.

Fitzpatrick isn't going to be a consistent QB1 or anything, but he should be a solid QB2 play with upside based on his past track record and his sometimes reckless ability to throw the ball.

Breshad Perriman (WR, Detroit Lions)

So, I actually wrote about Perriman last year with his move to the Jets. That...didn't go so well.

Perriman had a 94.7 percent snap rate last year in the 12 games he played and a 100 percent route participation mark. But he was just 72nd among receivers in targets and 53rd in target share. Despite his speed -- a 4.3 40-yard dash that ranks in the 100th percentile per PlayerProfiler -- he was just 46th in air yards because the Jets under Adam Gase just didn't use players right.

That air yard issue is still a problem with Jared Goff, who is traditionally near the bottom of the league in aDOT. But what we do know about Goff is that he has consistently supported multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers during his career. Sure, some of that is because of the Rams' coaching and the talent in the Rams' receiving room, but I can't help but think Perriman is in a better situation now than he was with the Jets.

Perriman has flashed a lot of potential in his career. This season should be the year that he starts to show some consistency as well.

Mike Davis (RB, Atlanta Falcons)

Because of injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Mike Davis got starter snaps last year and did a good job with it, continuing what's been a really, really weird career for Davis:

Who has that kind of career arc?

Davis landed in Atlanta this offseason. Based on everything he's done so far as an NFL player, it would seem that a team would be signing him to be either a backup or part of a committee.

But, uhh, no, based on what else the team did?

The Falcons currently have the following other running backs signed: Cordarrelle Patterson, Qadree Ollison, Tony Brooks-James, Javian Hawkins, and Caleb Huntley. I don't even know how one of those players is!

It really seems like Davis won't just be the lead back in a committee; he'll be THE lead back. Patterson and Ollison could take some snaps, but Patterson has always been way better on special teams than as a skill position player, and Ollison hasn't really shown much during his brief NFL career.

Great landing spot for Davis. He's an RB2 at this point.

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