RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Bryson DeChambeau smashed his way to victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, capturing his eighth career title on the PGA Tour in the process. While the win was impressive, DeChambeau created quite the social media stir with his attempts of driving the green at the par-five sixth hole during the weekend. Both shots failed to land on the putting surface, but the image of his shot on Saturday compared to the rest of the field does help to illustrate the ridiculous path he took over the water.
As far as my 'Rankings Wizard' model was concerned, I was pleased with the outcome for the week. I had a higher consensus ranking versus DK ownership on 12 of the players inside of my top-25, which saw 11 make the cut/Dechambeau walk out of the event victorious. That tool is just one way you can use my spreadsheet when you make a copy of your own in the link below, and I always am interested to see how you guys weigh, construct and decipher your information!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Players Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Sawgrass
7,189 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded Rye - Think of your Bent/Poa mixtures)
TPC Sawgrass has always been a tough nut to crack. Typically walking a fine line between challenging and sadistic, the event played as a shootout two years ago in its first showing in March since 2006. As has been well-documented over the last year, the 2020 iteration of the tournament was canceled after one round because of the COVID-19 concerns, but it does seem likely that the two-month move will help golfers receive a more well-equipped venue to find success.
In my opinion, TPC Sawgrass was initially created to be played in colder weather conditions. The summer temperature in May gives us a Bermuda surface that is still dormant (but playable) from the winter and can quickly convert the venue into a firm/fast test that isn't conducive for the shot shapes needed on holes. One of the only ways to stop your ball on the putting surface would be to hit a run-up shot before 2019, and the fact that most holes weren't designed to be played in that fashion caused GIR percentage to plummet from certain angles.
However, all of that changes in March. The overseeded rye is favorable to how the property is set up and allows players to fly and stop it with greater ease. Strokes gained around the green will still be amplified because of the small putting surfaces, but it is a hard statistic to weigh properly since greens usually feature shaved runoffs that allow golfers to putt their ball over chipping. The 17 water hazards and 88 bunkers provide trouble at every turn, and while rough is anything but penal, the Pete Dye nature will force a handful of forced lay-ups to reduce the magnitude of driving distance - although it won't completely negate the stat because of the overseeded nature of the layout slowing down balls with every shot.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Sawgrass | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 277 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 63% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 53% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.62 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 12/1 and is followed by Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau at 16/1, John Rahm at 17/1 and Xander Schauffele at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Ball Striking 25%
- Proximity Over 125 Yards 15%
- Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance 15%
- Par-Four Average 15%
- ATG+Sand Save Percentage 10%
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green Pete Dye 10%
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green Under 7,200 Yards 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000:
Dustin Johnson ($11,200)
We have seen Dustin Johnson trending in the right direction at TPC Sawgrass over the last few years, posting a fifth, 17th, 12th and 28th in his previous four go-arounds. Those results come on the heels of seven prior showings since 2008 of failing to crack the top-30, but it not as if the American doesn't have a chance to end all those trends with one giant swoop. I would let ownership push me in a direction this week when trying to figure out my lineups, but a contrarian route of DJ can reward gamers heavily if he comes in at sub-10 percent owned. We know he is capable of winning anywhere around the world, and the Bent/Poa split that is being used in the overseeding has always been DJ's preferred putting surface.
Jon Rahm ($10,900)
Jon Rahm started his career at TPC Sawgrass with two finishes outside of the top-60 in 2017 and 2018, and his 12th place in 2019 only tells a portion of the story. Rahm was in a prime position to capture the title coming down the stretch here two years ago but went against the advice of his caddie and dunked his second shot into the water on the par-five 11th. Unfortunately, the wheels continued to unravel from there, and the inevitable blow-up occurred that allowed Rory McIlroy to find the winner's circle. The industry seems to be down on the Spaniard after his poor effort a few weeks ago at the WGC Concession, and it might allow an interesting buy-back spot onto the second-ranked golfer in the world.
Rory McIlroy ($10,600)
It was another good result for Rory McIlroy at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but one that left me slightly discouraged with how he played during the weekend. The Irishman looked prime and ready to get the winless drought off his back heading into Saturday, but two sloppy rounds slipped him into a share of 10th place to end the week. There will likely be a contrarian route present for those willing to take another shot on the Irishman, but the possibility for implosion does feel heightened after watching his driver and short irons falter at the API.
Xander Schauffele ($10,300)
It seems probable that many DFS users will take advantage of the soft pricing and begin their builds in the $9,000 range, which is one of the reasons why anybody over $10,000 should be considered outside of the box to some extent. We are essentially grasping at straws when trying to narrow down this group, although I do personally rank them as Rahm, Johnson, Xander and McIlroy.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Justin Thomas ($9,900)
I worry a little that the Justin Thomas hype-train might run wild for DFS contests, especially when you consider how volatile this tournament can be from a production standpoint. With that being said, I am willing to overlook some of the minor issues because of the move from May to March. This week's venue should be more conducive for quality iron players to get their balls to stop because of the softer conditions, and it might allow someone like Thomas to take advantage of his length over the other upper-echelon players in approach. That idea didn't necessarily come to fruition here in 2019, but we have to take a stance of some kind when trying to handicap a venue that doesn't have a ton of statistical data present year over year.
Webb Simpson ($9,500)
I like Webb Simpson's game for the Players, but I want to preface one thing about TPC Sawgrass's greens. Because they are dormant and not playable during the winter/spring months, we see the surface overseeded with a mixture of Poa/Bent. None of that takes the American off my radar, but it does directly affect him more than most golfers because of his propensity to catch fire with his putter on Bermuda grass. I'd be careful in looking too much into that because he is still the fourth-ranked golfer in my model, but if the venue plays in a fashion that even remotely rewards length...we might remove some of Simpson's win equity from the mix.
Collin Morikawa ($9,400), Viktor Hovland ($9,300) and Patrick Cantlay $9,200
It is hard to provide information about these three that you won't read all week throughout the industry. All are solid plays and have upside for victory, with each player making logical sense at their generous price tags on DraftKings. I don't want to dive too deeply into robust options, but I will present one downside for each trio member if you are looking to break a small edge.
- Collin Morikawa doesn't have much success or experience at Pete Dye tracks.
- Viktor Hovland might be running on fumes with his rigorous schedule.
- Patrick Cantlay hasn't been seen in action since his withdrawal from the WGC a few weeks ago because of dehydration.
I'm not sure any of those are concrete enough reasons to bypass the group from being included in your player pool, but it is always worth mentioning when we are trying to separate small edges.
Scottie Scheffler ($8,900)
Ranked first in my model in total driving and second in ball-striking, Scottie Scheffler might be able to use his stellar combination of accuracy and distance to make his first official trip to TPC Sawgrass a success. Scheffler did play here in the shortened version of the tournament last season, firing an opening-round 68 to place him into a share of seventh, but the proper bookkeeping will track this as his first attempt. The American has been knocking at the door for quite some time now when it comes to bringing in his first PGA Tour title, and his three straight top-20 finishes will only help to heighten that narrative.
Paul Casey ($8,400)
We are in the midst of Paul Casey playing some of the best golf of his career, but the frustrating weekend rounds have remained during his five consecutive top-12 results. The discussion of his lack of win equity and inclination for random mind-numbing shots will always keep the ownership subdued, which is something that I like to attack when we get a version of him that is below $9,000. Casey ranks third in my model when it comes to total driving and places in the top-15 in my re-weighted proximity marks.
Sungjae Im ($8,300)
The only official result we have on Sungjae Im at TPC Sawgrass was a missed cut in 2019, but let's pump the breaks with critiquing a then 20-year-old version of the budding star. Im was able to fire a three-under 69 last year before the event got canceled because of COVID-19, and we should have a window to buy with no industry exposure because of his recent run with his irons. I'd be lying if I said I didn't have my concerns with the way he is striking the ball after hitting his drives, but the rest of his game does look stout, especially with his putter that has gained nearly five strokes per event over his last five PGA appearances. Any return to normalcy with his irons makes him a threat to walk out of the week victorious - something that is intriguing in this low $8,000 section.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Louis Oosthuizen ($7,900)
Last week's withdrawal at the API from Louis Oosthuizen should mean that most DFS gamers will be hesitant to place themselves in a position to get burned again. While there are some concerns anytime you roster a player like the South African for DFS contests, I don't mind being aggressive and trying to insert him into large-field GPP builds. Oosthuizen has been brilliant with three straight PGA Tour starts within the top-30 and should be good to go if he makes it to the tees on Thursday. I can't imagine a situation where he removes himself again last-minute, so we should at least have some clarity on the case before the event begins.
Joaquin Niemann ($7,700)
We have seen some negative regression take place for Joaquin Niemann after starting the year with back-to-back top-two finishes, but it is important to note how we got to his two most recent results of 43rd and 28th. Niemann flirted with the lead over the first two days at the Genesis, eventually faltering in blustery conditions on Saturday, while his 28th place result at the WGC should be chalked up to a putter that never got out of neutral for the event. Niemann is going to be extremely popular on DraftKings at his reasonable $7,700 price tag, but even if he makes for a better outright bet than anything else, there should be some GPP appeal around his potential.
Cameron Tringale ($7,200)
The run continued for Cameron Tringale at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, landing his fifth straight top-31 finish. We have also seen Tringale make three straight weekends at Sawgrass since 2015, and he ranks inside the top-20 this week compared to the field in bogey avoidance and par-four scoring.
Cameron Davis ($7,100)
The irons remained strong for Cameron Davis during the API, but the rest of his game crumbled en route to his first missed cut since November. There are some concerns regarding Davis's inaccuracy with his driver at a venue littered with water, but distance might play a key if he can get himself to miss on the less penal sides. The Aussie is a prolific birdie-maker that can get hot fast, and we have seen him find past success at shorter venues and Pete Dye tracks.
Chris Kirk ($7,000)
A strong argument could be made that if pricing came out on Monday like it typically does, Chris Kirk might have been $500 more expensive because of his recent form that continued at Arnie's event. Kirk has provided four top-16 finishes on tour in his previous five tournaments and has been impressive at TPC Sawgrass over his last four official showings - posting two top-13s and an additional two made cuts.
Brian Harman ($6,900)
I like the idea of pivoting from Keegan Bradley onto Brian Harman. I have nothing against Bradley (once you remove his lofty ownership projections), but Harman provides just about the same win equity at a much more conducive ownership total in GPP builds. We have seen the American produce two top-eight finishes here since 2015, and his accuracy will always play as an advantage for him when trying to find cheap cut-makers.
Other Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Charley Hoffman ($6,800), Ryan Moore ($6,800) - Team UNLV!
Emiliano Grillo ($6,700), Brendan Steele ($6,700), Matthew NeSmith ($6,700), Harold Varner III ($6,700), James Hahn ($6,500), Richy Werenski ($6,400), Jhonattan Vegas ($6,300)
***Plays are not limited to those options, but they are some of the ones that popped in my model. Jason Dufner ($6,100) might be worth a small look if you are desperate for a flier that has better made-cut equity than his peers, but it gets thin once we drop past the $6,700 range.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
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