RADIO
Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 13 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.
I'm back and ready to roll! Life through the last two weeks had been throwing me a lot of curveballs, including having to postpone my wedding due to COVID. It was a very difficult decision but the right one, given the state of our country recently fighting the pandemic. A huge shoutout to my personal friend, Nick Federline, for taking over the last few weeks for me. He's one of the best minds for college sports and has been killing it with his college football betting picks on the site. Please, go check his work out! Now, onto Week 13!
- Week 10: 1-2 (33%, -1.14u)
- 2020 Season: 14-15-1 (47%, -1.28u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Las Vegas Raiders (-8, -400) at New York Jets
O/U: 47
A midseason three-game win streak had the Raiders sights set quite high. They followed it up by dropping two straight to the Chiefs (though they almost upset them again) before their embarrassing effort against the Falcons. Derek Carr isn't a franchise quarterback but he's having a solid season (19TD, 4INT), though it's important to note he hasn't thrown for over 275 yards in five games His backfield mate, Josh Jacobs, has missed two straight practices this week which is quite worrisome for the Raiders as his replacements are that in name only. Defensively, the Raiders are 30th in rush DVOA and have allowed 135 yards per game on the road but luckily their Week 13 opponent is as inept as we've seen from an NFL offense.
Sitting at 0-11 with a real possibility to go winless, the Jets are beyond being considered a laughing stock. Averaging just 13.8 points per game, they're also the only team in the NFL to average under 300 ypg. Whether Sam Darnold or Joe Flacco is taking snaps, the lack of run game means the lackluster passing options have almost no room to operate. Their defense doesn't help matters much, being one of just two defense to allow 400 ypg at home (Seattle is the other). They also allow just a hair under 30 ppg.
I'm not fooled by the Raiders' strong play just a few weeks back. This offense isn't very good and could be without their top back before traveling east. Combine it with this putrid Jets team and this game is a total stinker. Even if Jacobs does play, the Raiders should be able to get enough of a lead that they'll drown out the Jets putrid efforts.
Pick: Under 47 (-110, Foxbet) 1 Unit
New England Patriots (-1, -115) at Los Angeles Chargers
O/U: 47.5
The Patriots begin a three-game road trip in LA Week 13 after winning three of their last four. However, it hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows. They somehow pulled out a 20-17 victory with just 179 yards of offense last week; meanwhile they've thrown for over 275 yards just twice all season. Cam Newton has not looked the same since his IR stint with COVID and the PAts have relied heavily on the run game. The Pats have been stronger defensively, allowing just 20.3 ppg over their L3, but over the season they've given up almost 28 ppg as visitors. They allow six yards per play and almost seven on the road. A totally different unit when on the road.
The Chargers have dealt with a fair share of injuries this season, but one thing is for sure and that's that Justin Herbert is going to be around for awhile. He's thrown for at least 275 yards in five of their last six and as a result, the offense has averaged 27.8 ppg in that stretch. Last week they welcomed back top back Austin Ekeler which is a huge boost for the unit and combined with Keenan Allen, this offense has plenty of weapons. Defensively, they're a disaster. The Chargers haven't allowed fewer than 27 points since Week 3, though they do allow just 324 ypg at home. Joey Bosa is a force but has dealt with some injury issues this season, though he should be ready to cause issues for Newton.
The Patriots have gone through a lot of transition this year but they've even lowered the expectations. The defense has been better but overall a disappointment and the offense is just gross at this point. The Chargers on the other hand have way more talent and upside, and while there isn't much substance behind that, this just feels like a spot where the team formerly known as the San Diego Chargers give New England a show and present a changing of the guard.
Pick: Los Angeles +1 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
New Orleans Saints (-2.5, -154) at Atlanta Falcons
O/U: 45.4
New Orleans has been cruising lately, winning their last eight games and cementing themselves as the favorite in the NFC. While the offense has been on point from start to finish this season, the Saints Defense has done a complete turnaround the last four contests. After allowing at least 23 points in their first seven games, they've given up just 28 points total in their last four, including three games holding their opponents to under 10 points, while also generating 12 takeaways. Offensively, sure they have Taysom Hill as the starting quarterback now, but he's shown quite capable of being able to lead an NFL offense through his last two starts.
These Falcons have seen quite a resurgence under interim head coach Raheem Morris, going 4-2 since he took the reigns. Aside from their first game against the Saints, the Falcons have put up at least 22 points in each of the other five games under Morris. Matt Ryan hasn't been overly impressive and the run game has had their moments, but overall the offense is just making it work without really excelling in any one facet of the gameplan. The defense has seen it's share of improvement as well and their fresh off a dominating performance against the Raiders where they allowed just six points and forced five turnovers. This is a defense that had just five turnovers total in their first five games.
The first time these two met, the Saints silenced the Falcons and forced two turnovers en route to a 24-9 victory. That was also the first game that Hill took over at quarterback and things seemed to be just fine for the Saints. Sure, the Falcons Defense has significantly improved, but against an opponent like the Saints who are vying for the top spot in the NFC playoffs, this is a game where New Orleans looks to take down handily so they can lighten the load as the season winds down.
Pick: New Orleans -2.5 (-115, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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