Horse For The Course: PGA DFS (Course History) - Safeway Open

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the Safeway Open. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller PGA DFS family! My guy DJ just continued to show out at East Lake. Why can't he do this is in majors? I suppose that's the age-old question with Dustin Johnson...

Although we've crowned a FedEx Cup champion, we've still got a lot of golf left as we head into the 2020-21 season. While we'd normally take a step back on what's traditionally considered a "Swing Season" event, we're paying close attention to form as we look ahead to the U.S. Open next week.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

Safeway Open Overview

After a season unlike any other, this week's Safeway Open represents the official start of the "new" 2020-21 PGA Tour schedule. The Tour has done a fabulous job of juggling the effects of COVID-19, but there are still some scheduling oddities that lie ahead in what remains of the calendar year, with the U.S. Open scheduled for next week and the Masters slated for November. However...we do have to prepare for the U.S. Open next week, so we've seen lots of players drop out of this event, with ZERO of the 30 players that teed it up in last week's Tour Championship electing to play at Silverado this week.

This tournament has produced a somewhat eclectic group of past champions, with players like Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, and Brendan Steele (twice) being among the recent winners at Silverado. This week's field doesn't have the type of top-to-bottom star power that we've grown accustomed to over the last few weeks - with many elite players electing to rest between the Tour Championship and U.S. Open - and this might qualify as the most shocking salary scale that we've seen in a while as none other than Si Woo Kim tops the DK board with *gulp* Phil Mickelson coming in right behind him. Are we living in the #DreamRoom?

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: Silverado Resort & Spa North

Par 72 - 7,166 Yards, Greens: Poa Annua, Designed By: Robert Trent Jones Jr. (1966 Redesign), Johnny Miller (2011 Redesign)

A small group led by Johnny Miller purchased this Robert Trent Jones Jr.-designed property in 2010. Miller quickly orchestrated a fairly extensive re-design which has been well received. This is a classic layout with tough-to-hit, tree-lined fairways that places an emphasis on accuracy off the tee. Elite ball striking is required at Silverado and will be an area that I will target heavily, while iron play will also take its usual prominent place in my research process. Recent winners here are players that I would largely place in the "ball strikers" category, with most being known for their length and ability off the tee. I'll also glance at scrambling and around-the-green ability this week, as this tournament definitely isn't a "birdiefest", with the average winning score at around 15-under par. For the first time in a while, we'll see true California Poa Annua greens. Poa is notoriously tricky, so I'll definitely be keeping an eye on players that have positive putting splits on Poa.

Recent Champions & Winning Scores

• 2020 (Season): Cameron Champ (-17)
• 2019: Kevin Tway (-14)
• 2018: Brendan Steele (-15)
• 2017: Brendan Steele (-18)
• 2016: Emiliano Grillo (-15)

The Horse

Brendan Steele

DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $11,400
Notable Course History: Win ('18 & '17)

Welcome to $10k Brendan Steele week! I know, it's pretty sick. After months of super-elite fields to work with, the Safeway is a nice reminder that not every week on the PGA Tour schedule is star-studded. Some events we just have to resign ourselves to the fact that the DFS salary scale "is what it is"...and this definitely qualifies as one of those tournaments.

Do we ever want to pay an inflated price for a player like Brendan Steele? No, of course not, but that's what we're faced with this week. As available options go, he sticks out, not only due to his strong track record at Silverado (he's a two-time winner of this event), but also because he's exhibited some solid - if unspectacular - form as of late. He's logged two top-25s and a top-10 over his last six starts, and heads to California ranked first in this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and third in SG: Total, while also leading the field in SG: Total in this event since 2016.

The Ponies

Phil Mickelson

DraftKings: $10,600
FanDuel: $11,800
Notable Course History: MC ('20), T7 ('19), T3 ('18), T8 ('17)

Another gross price tag here, but if you're shopping at the top of the board Phil Mickelson is worth a look. The 50-year-old has been horribly inconsistent over the past couple of seasons, but when he's played well, he's been able to post some very high finishes, with a runner-up finish at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude being the most recent one in mind.

Mickelson won his debut event on the PGA Champions Tour recently, and while I don't know how much bearing that performance has on this week, it is certainly notable. His play in Memphis and on the Champions Tour should at the very least send Phil to the Safeway feeling confident. We also have to imagine that his elite track record on this Silverado layout will provide some positive mojo for Lefty this week. I'm viewing Mickelson as a "boom or bust" GPP play in this spot, and while I don't love the volatility at this price point, I do feel like there's actually legitimate upside here.

Harold Varner III

DraftKings: $9,100
FanDuel: $10,500
Notable Course History: T17 ('20), T14 ('19), T59 ('18), T15 ('17)

Lots of positives to take from HV3's play since the restart. Varner heads to the Safeway ranked fourth in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds and had played well at both the PGA Championship and the Wyndham before his season ended in the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the Northern Trust.

Varner has been rock-solid in previous trips to Silverado and has ran off five-straight made cuts - with three top-20 finishes - at the Safeway since 2016. He grades out 11th in this week's field in SG: Off The Tee and second in Birdie Opportunities Gained over the last 24 rounds. On a week where our options are very thin, HV3 feels like a "safe" option at what we must consider a relatively reasonable $9.1k price tag.

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Cameron Davis

DraftKings: $8,900
FanDuel: $10,300
Notable Course History: MC ('20), T17 ('19)

The course history is admittedly a little thin for Cameron Davis, but his T17 in the Safeway two seasons ago is enough for me on what's a tough slate. What we're really interested in is Davis' recent form. The young Aussie closed out the season on a heater, going T12/T15/T29 in his last three starts.

In addition to the solid form, Davis profiles as a terrific fit for this Silverado layout. He ranks first in this week's field in Birdies or Better Gained, while also standing sixth in SG on Par-5s. His ability off the tee is noteworthy (13th in the field SG: OTT) on this course that has routinely rewarded great drivers of the ball.

Patrick Rodgers

DraftKings: $7,600 
FanDuel: $9,400
Notable Course History: T44 ('20), T25 ('19), T43 ('18), MC ('17), T6 ('16)

Patrick Rodgers is kinda the opposite of the aforementioned Cameron Davis, as his recent form hasn't been great, but he has a long history of solid play at the Safeway, making the cut in four of his last five starts with a T6 and a T25 among those outings.

I'm usually willing to ignore Rodgers' stats to a certain degree, as his game doesn't translate well to every layout. Where he does generally shine is on tough, longer golf courses with four Par-5s and especially those with Poa greens. Rodgers ranks seventh in the Safeway field in SG: Putting on Poa Annua greens. This is the type of layout where I like to target him and - on a week with crazy pricing - his price tag is reasonable.

Luke List

DraftKings: $7,400
FanDuel: $9,500
Notable Course History: MC ('20), T4 ('19), T37 ('18), T26 ('17)

We're gonna round out a weird week with Luke List, a player that we never feel completely comfortable rostering. List is a talented player and his ball-striking style fits the mold of previous winners of the Safeway. He's fared well here, making the cut in three of his last four starts at Silverado, with a T4 two years ago.

List flashed a bit of form after the restart, winning a Korn Ferry Tour event and posting a top-10 result at the Memorial. As usual with him, the ball-striking has been there, but some wretched performances with the putter have resulted in a couple of bad outings in recent starts. Poa is his "least worst" surface, so we're hoping List can manage a decent week on the greens to go with his sterling ball-striking ability.

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