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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 8/21/20. Eric Samulski's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
We head into a Friday night 13 game with only the Mets and Yankees taking the night off due to the Mets' potential COVID cases. As Bubba mentioned yesterday, it's been hot on the west coast, so look to attack some of those big offenses, and really even the ones you normally don't consider potent as the Giants' bats won people lots of money last night.
You may also need some value bats in your lineup in order to pay up for some of the big arms on the slate. Walker Buehler has had a slow start to the year, but Aaron Nola and Max Fried have looked dominant and the rest of the pitching slate is full of question marks. You can take some chances with the other pitching targets,
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 8/21/2020. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Aaron Nola - P, PHI at ATL ($9,900)
You may see Atlanta up there and be less certain about rostering Nola. That shouldn't be the case. Without Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr., and, to an obviously lesser extent, Nick Markakis, this Atlanta offense is not one that instills a tremendous amount of fear. Certainly not when taking on Nola. The 27-year old has found his groove against this year, registering a 2.05 ERA, 39.8% strikeout rate, and monstrous 35.5 K-BB%. K-BB% is one of the first stats that stabilizes and indicates that Nola's early dominance might not be flukey. He's inducing a career-high 14.8 SwStr%, and the Braves are third-worst in the league with a 26.7 K%. All of it adds up to Nola being my favorite arm on the slate tonight.
Adrian Houser - P, MIL at PIT ($8,400)
I think Adrian Houser is going to be under-owned tonight because his last two starts against strong Cubs and Twins teams left him with average stats. However, he held his own in both of those games, and the underlying metrics suggest that Houser is ready to breakout. Houser's SwStr% has improved to 10.7%, which is driven by adding two inches of drop on his slider and an inch of sink on his sinker. His extra movement has been one of the reasons that he's in the top five in groundball rate, but the strikeouts haven't come. I think they will. Even if they don't come in this game, you have a pitcher who is inducing a lot of groundballs and weak contact facing a team that has the worst ISO in the league and second-worst batting average. Houser may not rack up the strikeouts to put up massive numbers, but I think he's perhaps the safest non-Nola arm on the slate with upside for more.
Other Options: Walker Buehler (LAD vs COL) $10,200, Max Fried (ATL vs PHI) $8,900, Andrew Heaney (LAA @ OAK) $7,700, Chad Kuhl (PIT vs MIL) $6,900
DraftKings DFS Infielders
Jose Abreu - 1B, CWS at Jon Lester ($4,100)
Don't look now, but here comes Jose Abreu. He's 8-for-14 in his last three games with a HR, 6 RBI and an average of 18.3 DraftKings points a game. Even before this recent hot streak, Abreu has been striking the ball well, hitting at a career-high 92.4 mph exit velocity and 52.5 Hard%. In his career, Abreu has a .547 SLG and .236 ISO against left-handed pitching and gets a good match-up in Jon Lester. I'd be looking to get some exposure to the White Sox lineup, and Abreu seems like a nice, relatively inexpensive option to do so.
Other Options: Miguel Sano (MIN at KC) $4,700, Renato Nunez (BAL vs BOS) $4,400, Wilmer Flores (SF vs ARI) $3,900, Jeimer Candelario (DET at CLE) $3,600
Ketel Marte- 2B, ARI at Logan Webb ($4,400)
Ketel Marte isn't hitting for as much power as he did last year, so his price has continued to fall on DraftKings. However, he's still hitting .343, his SwStr% is down to 6.3%, and his Hard% is up to 42.9%. The biggest change is that his ISO is down from .264 to .098. Much of that is the way that he's being pitched, but I'm not concerned in the big picture because of the quality of contact Marte is making. He now gets to face a mediocre arm in Logan Webb, who has a 7.5 K-BB% across 20.1 innings. Webb doesn't miss many bats but has registered a 5.6% HR/FB ratio which will absolutely regress to the mean. I look for Marte to be one of the reasons it does.
Other Options: Mike Moustakas (CIN at STL) $5,100, Tommy La Stella (LAA at OAK) $4,300, Phil Gosselin (PHI at ATL) $4,100, Abraham Toro (HOU at SD) $3,000
Manny Machado - 3B, SD vs Lance McCullers Jr. ($4,300)
I don't love many of the options at 3B tonight, but Machado has been hitting the ball well lately, notching a .400 average with 2 HR and 8 RBI over the last 10 games. He has two hits in each of the last three games and is hitting in a potent Padres lineup that has packed a punch recently. Machado will also get to face a vulnerable arm in McCullers, who has not looked like the same arm in his return from arm injury. His K% has dropped from 26.9 to 20.7, his SwStr% dropped from 13.5% to 11.2%, and his HR/FB ratio has jumped up to 21.4%. He's simply not missing the bats he did before, which could be a problem against a guy swinging a hot bat.
Other Options: Matt Chapman (OAK vs LAA) $4,700, Yoan Moncada (CWS at CHC) $4,400, Brad Miller (STL vs CIN) $3,700, Evan Longoria (SF vs LAA) $3,400
Tim Anderson - SS, CHW at Jon Lester ($4,800)
There simply are very few people swinging the bat as well as Anderson is right now. Over his last 10 games, the shortstop is hitting .436 with 5 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB, and a 1.399 OPS. He now gets to bring his act on the road to face a vulnerable Jon Lester. There are many good options at shortstop tonight, but I wouldn't overthink it too much. If you have the salary to put Anderson in your lineup, it will likely be the right choice.
Other Options: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD vs HOU) $5,200, Xander Bogaerts (BOS at BAL) $5,100, Marcus Semien (OAK vs LAA) $4,700, Javier Baez (CHC vs CHW) $4,100, Nick Ahmed (ARI at SF) $3,500, Freddy Galvis (CIN at STL) $3,200
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Austin Slater - OF, SF vs Robbie Ray ($2,800)
Austin Slater facing a lefty? LOCK IT IN. In all seriousness, I had Slater locked into my lineups yesterday against Jose Suarez, and I'll likely do the same today against Ray. Slater is hitting .375 with 4 HR, 5 RBI, and 5 SB over his last 10 games. He's hitting .450 with 3 of those HRs against left-handed pitching, and now he gets to face Ray, who may have changed his mechanics but has been the same old mess on the mound. Ray has an 8.59 ERA and is giving up 2.86 HR/9. You want Giants right-handed bats in your lineup tonight and Slater should be a damn near lock at this price.
Nelson Cruz - OF, MIN vs Danny Duffy ($5,100)
Don't overthink it, if you can play Cruz versus a left-handed pitcher, do it. Cruz homered last night and is hitting .429 with 4 HR against lefties this year. For his career, he has a .278 ISO and .571 SLG against lefties. Last year specifically, he had 16 HRs and a 1.207 OPS. Duffy has always been a guy who got by with velocity, so I love the matchup here, and Cruz apparently does too since he's hitting .360 with a .960 SLG, 5 HR, and 10 RBI in his career against Duffy.
Mark Canha - OF, OAK vs Andrew Heaney ($3,700)
I'm not excited to attack Heaney today since he's a solid arm and the A's struggle as a team versus left-handed pitching, but I do love Canha at this price in this spot. He hit fourth for the A's last night against another left-handed pitcher and put up 16 DraftKings points. He's hitting .279 with 3 HR and 17 RBI on the season and has a 1.044 OPS over his last 10 games. He should be in a solid spot for RBIs tonight and could put up his third straight 16+ point night.
Other Options: Mike Yastrzemski (SF vs ARI) $5,100, Franmil Reyes (CLE vs DET) $4,600, Anthony Santander (BAL vs BOS) $4,600, Eloy Jimenez (CHW at CHC) $4,100, Dylan Moore (SEA vs TEX) $3,900, Stephen Piscotty (OAK vs AZ) $3,500, Jesse Winker (CIN at STL) $3,500
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (John Means, LHP)
- Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (Jon Lester, LHP)
- Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox (Bullpen game)
- San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Robbie Ray, LHP)
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