RADIO
Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be a top-10 RB going off the board in the first round. That statement shouldn’t be controversial, but people are always hesitant to pay that high of a price for a player we haven’t seen in the NFL before. But you should not let that fear scare you from drafting CEH.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was already viewed as the top fantasy rookie by many. I had previously thought Edwards-Helaire was worthy of a mid-second round pick and I have him on a lot of my best-ball teams. I am a firm believer in the talent, draft capital spent on him and the situation. My only concern was Damien Williams and how long it would take for CEH to get the majority of touches. I expected a split early on with CEH pulling away as the season went on. But that all changed once Williams decided to opt out of the 2020 season. Now, Edwards-Helaire is expected to start the season as the Chiefs' lead back.
My goal is to get you on board with drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round too! But before I even go into all statistical analysis, I want to bring up two recent success stories. Remember Ezekiel Elliott was a first-round pick even as a rookie? That worked out. Former Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt was going in the second and still proved to be a league winner. Just because we haven’t seen a rookie does not mean at all that the talent cannot immediately transcend and lead to stud fantasy seasons from the moment they step on the field.
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The Case for Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a tremendous talent in college. He was part of a historic LSU team from last year that, along with Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and others, had one of the best and most efficient seasons in history. He rushed for 1,414 yards and 16 touches while adding in 453 receiving yards on 55 catches and one touchdown. He averaged 0.33 missed tackles forced per attempt, which ranked tied for 10th with Cam Akers among all RBs with at least 125 carries.
He is a dynamic talent that can run between the tackles but his real strength is his route running. He will not just catch screen passes but he will actually run routes down the field. He is a back in the same mold as a Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara or Austin Ekeler.
For anyone hesitant to draft a player they really haven’t seen before so early, here’s some highlights of Clyde Edwards-Helaire against Alabama last season pic.twitter.com/fKMOmM7T24
— Michael Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 31, 2020
Andy Reid had never selected a running back in the first round of an NFL Draft before. The only other back he had drafted in the first two rounds was LeSean McCoy. He took Brian Westbrook in round three years back as well. That right there shows you how highly the Super Bowl-winning coach values his new RB. There were two quotes that came out after the NFL draft that shows how much both Reid, and the Super Bowl MVP, highest-paid QB and new MLB franchise owner, Patrick Mahomes, felt about CEH.
First, Chiefs GM Brett Veach said he told Reid to watch Edwards-Helaire tape. “I told Coach, ‘Wait until you finish up your work on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He’s going to remind you of Brian Westbrook.’ Coach called me back and said ‘He’s better than Brian.’”
That is very high praise since Westbook is in the Eagles Hall of Fame cause of all the success he and Reid had together. The other quote came from Mahomes, sort of. When Reid was asked why they picked Edwards-Helaire, he said it was because Mahomes wanted him.
“We asked Pat Mahomes, who do you want? He picked you,” Reid told Edwards-Helaire, which is the highest of praise.
The fact that we have a dynamic and highly-talented running back that was clearly highly sought after by both Reid and Mahomes is enough to get me fired up. But now with Damien Williams out of the picture for 2020, the path for the necessary volume to finish as an RB1 is clearly there.
The other RBs on the Chiefs roster are Darwin Thompson, Darrel Williams and DeAndre Washington. Thompson had a ton of hype by the fantasy community last offseason and was still the fourth RB on the depth chart and hardly saw the field at all. Williams has always been a depth piece. DeAndre Washington is actually a late-round target and the backup I most want to own here, but even so, the Chiefs have invested just a one-year deal worth a little over a million dollars. None of those backs should be expected to see a workload like Damien Williams was, which right there is a big value boosts for the rookie.
There’s also the concern that the Chiefs can bring in a veteran back. They did last year, picking up LeSean McCoy right before the season. McCoy's name was swirling around for the Chiefs, but he has since signed with the Bucs, taking him out of contention. Additionally, he was a healthy scratch in the playoffs so I’m not so sure the Chiefs were knocking his door down trying to bring him back. The other names are Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller.
Miller is a 29-year-old back that is coming off a serious injury. Also, he has never rushed for 1,100 yards or had 400 receiving yards in a season. He would provide depth but not a threat to win the starting gig in my opinion. The biggest threat would be Freeman, who is 28 years old and coming off a 59-catch season. However, his rushing efficiency really took a hit last season. Freeman signing with the Chiefs wouldn’t be ideal, but he’d come in at an elevated age, with a long injury history and likely on a cheap veteran deal. I think he would be a secondary piece here because CEH can’t handle 100 percent of the RB work (no RB does) but I wouldn’t worry about Freeman stealing the starting gig.
Chase Chiefs Running Backs
Last year, I was a Damien Williams believer. Truth be told, it had nothing to do with Williams himself or his talent. No knock to him, but to be honest, I would be interested in anyone who is the lead back in an Andy Reid offense led by Patrick Mahomes.
In the past two seasons, the Chiefs running backs as a whole have averaged 1.02 PPR points per opportunity. An opportunity is a carry or a target. The only teams with higher in that span are the Panthers (1.08) which is thanks to McCaffrey and the Chargers (1.05). The Chiefs backs also finished third in that span in PPR points per touch, at 1.07, behind just the Panthers and Chargers again.
Perhaps the stat that should have you most excited for CEH is that the Chiefs backs have been the most efficient pass catchers in the NFL in the past two seasons. They’ve averaged 2.05 fantasy points per target, by far the most in the NFL. The closest to them was the Chargers, at 1.85. That means when a Chiefs RB receives a target, they score on average 0.20 fantasy points more than the RBs on the next closest team. The gaps only get larger and larger when comparing that number to other teams.
But there is even more reason to be optimistic. It’s very possible that the Chiefs RBs are more efficient than even that two-year average since both Mahomes and Williams missing multiple games in 2019. Having backup RBs play with a backup QB is surely going to bring those numbers down. When you look back at 2018, when Mahomes had that magical season and Kareem Hunt was a league winner until he was let go due to off-the-field issues. But Williams stepped up in his place and led plenty of fantasy players to championships. That season, Chiefs RBs absolutely dominated the NFL. They averaged 2.54 fantasy points per target. No team was above 1.85 that season, so that shows that they were otherworldly that season. The Chiefs also led all backfields in PPR points per touch (1.21) and PPR points per opportunity (1.16).
Where To Take Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Drafts
We now know that CEH is a superbly-talented back and that the Chiefs are a very favorable situation for running backs. In PPR leagues, it is fine to take him off the board in the middle of the first round. I have him ranked as my RB6 in PPR, behind just McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook. I would take him as high as sixth overall in this format, since I am a believer you need to get RBs early.
In half-point PPR leagues, CEH comes in as my RB8, with Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake going ahead of him. I still think in that format he is worthy of a first-round pick, but more in the back end. In standard, his worst format since he is such a great receiver, I have him as my RB11. That would put him either as a late first or early second-round pick.
Remember what Hunt did his rookie season with the Chiefs? Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the second coming, but he is a better receiver and gets to play with the greatest thrower of the football that I’ve ever seen. It may feel worrisome to spend that high of a draft pick on a player we’ve never seen suit up in the NFL, but it’ll feel way worse once we see him in action if you pass him up!
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