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Top NFL Betting Expert Picks For Conference Championship Week

Steve Janik's NFL betting picks for the Conference Championship Round. He analyzes NFL Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.

San Francisco and Minnesota made me a little nervous early, scoring 24 combined points in the first half, but things slowed down in the second and the under hit comfortably. Baltimore just totally fell apart, and were stunned by the Titans, after being the top seed in the AFC. Green Bay teetered on blowing their lead, and thanks to a generous first down by the refs, they held on and covered the 4.5 point spread.

We have just two weeks of football left, which puts some pressure on handicappers to help those looking for insight to finish the season strong. We push on and look at recent trends, along with individual player playoff history to drive our research and make the best informed decisions possible.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Good luck!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

Editor's Note: Here's a really nice special offer for all RotoBaller readers and prop picks hounds out there, from our friends at the fastest growing DFS site, Monkey Knife Fight. New AND Existing Player Bonus - All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'RBNFL19'.  Sign up and deposit, and use our picks below to get off on a winning foot! 

 

Green Bay at San Francisco (-7.5)

O/U: 46.5 

As winners of their last six, Green Bay is peaking at the absolute right time. Aaron Rodgers and company have averaged 353 yards per game in that stretch, and while they've only scored 25 or more twice, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are weapons every remaining team would beg to have. An interesting split stat is that Rodgers is 1-2 in Conference Championship games with a 4/5 TD/Int. Defensively, the Packers have been stout, allowing more than 265 yards of offense just once over the six-game win streak, but they've been very streaky all season, so at any moment they could fold. The 49ers don't just love to run the ball, they're also very good at it, rushing for 143ypg over the last seven, so Green Bay will need to focus on stopping the run over anything.

San Francisco took care of business in their first playoff game since 2013, defeating Minnesota 27-10. Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't needed for much, throwing for just 122 yards, with a touchdown and interception in his first career playoff game. Like Kyle Shanahan has done all season, the 49ers grounded and pounded their way to 186 yards and two scores and the Vikings had no match. The Packers Defense can easily be run on, but they have had their moments of being an elite run defense this year. On the 49ers defensive side, they brought their top effort post bye week. Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, and the rest of the Niners defense are able to take over a game in a handful of plays, but the Packers will certainly be a fair match.

After wins this season, Green Bay has seen the total go under eight times, while San Francisco has had the total go under seven times. Rodgers doesn't have a great Conference Championship portfolio but their weapons are arguably the best of the remaining team. The 49ers Defense is the best remaining unit on that side of the ball, which gives them a big boost, on top of their love of running the ball. I see a close, low-scoring affair on tap in the NFC Championship game.

Pick: Green Bay +7.5 and Under 46.5

 

Tennessee at Kansas City (-7.5)

O/U: 52 

Tennessee continues to roll through the playoffs, while shocking some of the top NFL fan bases with upset wins over the Patriots and the top-seeded Ravens. Derrick Henry might on one the best stretches of football in the last 20 years; he's rushed for over 100 yards in seven of the last eight games, which includes six games with 149 yards or more. While Ryan Tannehill was an enormous part of the Titans getting into the playoffs, he's been equally unneeded over the last two games, throwing for just 160 yards on 15 completions with three touchdowns and an interception. Defensively, Tennessee has been pretty vulnerable to giving up yards, but keeping points off the board. This is evidenced by the 13 points allowed per game and 379 ypg over the last three contests.

The Chiefs are coming in fresh off one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history; overcoming an early 24-point deficit, Kansas City showed that they're for real by dropping 41 unanswered points. Patrick Mahomes' five touchdown passes are what most expected out of the third-year signal caller this season, which hints that he's getting hot at the perfect time. His favorite target was Travis Kelce, to the tune of of 134 yards and three touchdowns, so if the Chiefs can get Tyreek Hill going, this offense will be deadly at home. The Chiefs Defense is easily the weakest of the remaining teams, and this is the same defense that gave up 188 rushing yards to Derrick Henry in Week 10. If they're unable to contain him, this could have the similar making of last week's game.

Both of these offenses are dangerous in their own ways, while their defenses have their weaknesses. Compared to the NFC Championship game, this matchup has the makings of a shootout. Early and often, the Titans might let Tannehill throw it around a little more than normal, which will catch KC off guard. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense will want to prove that their 41-point outburst wasn't a fluke, so they should come out, guns blazing.

Pick: 1st Half Over 25.5

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Charlie Coyle

Sets Up Four Goals Wednesday
John Tavares

Joins 500-Goal Club
Zach Hyman

Will Not Return This Week
Robert Thomas

Doubtful for Thursday
Brad Marchand

on Track to Return Saturday
Minnesota Twins

Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
Santi Aldama

Available Versus Phoenix
Jalen Green

Ruled Out Against Grizzlies
Keon Ellis

Available Versus Bulls
Daniel Gafford

Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford Out Again on Wednesday
Cameron Johnson

Will Play Against New Orleans
Anthony Davis

Available Versus Indiana
Zaccharie Risacher

Will Play Wednesday
Jalen Johnson

Available Against Nets
Samuel Ersson

Questionable for Thursday
Jordan Greenway

Set for Season Debut Thursday
Jaxson Hayes

Available On Wednesday
Conor Garland

Ruled Out for Thursday
Quinn Hughes

to Remain Out Thursday
Logan Cooley

Signs $80 Million Deal With Mammoth
Erik Gudbranson

Remains Out Wednesday
Isaiah Collier

Unavailable on Wednesday
William Nylander

Won't Play on Wednesday
Dereck Lively II

Doubtful for Wednesday Evening
Lamar Jackson

Removed From Injury Report, Will Return on Thursday
Daniel Gafford

Unlikely to Suit Up Versus Indiana
Tyler Shough

to Start at QB the Rest of the Season
Dante Exum

Out of Action Against Pacers
Jakob Poeltl

Sidelined on Wednesday
Terry McLaurin

Re-Injures Quad, Out for Week 9
Brock Bowers

Practicing in Full, "Looking Great"
Myles Garrett

"No Chance" Myles Garrett Gets Traded
Rico Dowdle

to Become Panthers Featured Back in Week 9?
Aidan Hutchinson

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Lions
Joe Flacco

Week 9 Status in Doubt With AC Joint Sprain
Ziaire Williams

Uncertain for Wednesday
Sam Merrill

Out on Wednesday
Santi Aldama

Iffy for Wednesday's Action
Gabe Vincent

Out for Several Weeks
Marcus Smart

in Danger of Missing Another Contest Wednesday
Cam Skattebo

Facing 4-6-Month Recovery Timetable
CFB

Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
Cameron Johnson

Considered Questionable for Wednesday
Jakob Poeltl

Unlikely to Play Wednesday
Jake Oettinger

Collects First Shutout of the Season
Chuba Hubbard

Panthers Don't Want To Move Chuba Hubbard
Connor Bedard

Produces First Career Hat Trick
Victor Olofsson

Has Career Night With Five Points
Thomas Harley

Signs Eight-Year Extension With Stars
Shayne Gostisbehere

Suffers New Injury Tuesday
Conor Garland

Joins Canucks' Growing Injury List
Mikael Granlund

to Miss 2-3 Weeks
Adam Gaudette

Could Miss Time
John Klingberg

Ready for Action Tuesday
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
Malik Nabers

Should be Ready for Start of Next Season
Lamar Jackson

Says he's "Ready to Go Now"
Isiah Pacheco

Week-to-Week With MCL Sprain
Tyler Shough

Named Saints' Starting Quarterback
Kareem Hunt

Scores Twice in Monday Night Win Over Washington
George Springer

Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury
Terry McLaurin

Questionable to Return in Week 8 After Aggravating Quad Injury
Baltimore Orioles

Orioles Finalizing Deal to Hire Craig Albernaz as the Next Manager
William Byron

Dominates at Martinsville and Advances to the Championship Round
Kyle Larson

Advances to the Championship Round After Top-Five Finish
Ryan Blaney

Falls Short of the Victory and Title Contention at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

Eliminated From 2025 Title Contention Despite Strong Martinsville Run
Lamar Jackson

Ravens Expect Lamar Jackson to Play on Thursday Night
Michael Carter

Cardinals Release Michael Carter on Monday
Carson Wentz

to Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
CFB

Behren Morton Will Start Against Kansas State
Nico Collins

Trending Toward a Week 9 Return
Puka Nacua

Expected to Practice Wednesday, Play in Week 9
CFB

Lane Kiffin Says Money Won't Impact his Decision-Making
CFB

Arch Manning in Concussion Protocol, Misses Practice Monday
Christopher Bell

Eliminated From Championship 4 After a Too Conservative Season
Joey Logano

Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Last at Martinsville
Denny Hamlin

Don't Think Denny Hamlin's Engine Failure Affects his Championship Prospects
Ciryl Gane

Fight With Tom Aspinall Ends In No-Contest
Ciryl Gane

Tom Aspinall Vs. Ciryl Gane Ends in No-Contest
Virna Jandiroba

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Mackenzie Dern

Wins Vacant Strawweight Title
Mario Bautista

Gets Outclassed
Umar Nurmagomedov

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jailton Almeida

Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Split Decision At UFC 321
Azamat Murzakanov

Remains Undefeated
Aleksandar Rakic

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher A Playable DFS option for Martinsville?
Ryan Preece

is an Intriguing DFS Option For Martinsville
Daniel Suarez

May be Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville This week?
Christopher Bell

Kyle Larson Should Advance to Championship 4
Joey Logano

Don't Expect Joey Logano to Significantly Contend for Championship 4
William Byron

A DFS Must-Start Due to Lap-Leader Points
Ross Chastain

Hail Melon Nostalgia Masks Ross Chastain's Martinsville Mediocrity
Josh Berry

a Top Contender for DFS Place-Differential Points
Brad Keselowski

an Intriguing Martinsville Option
Shane Van Gisbergen

Now Competent on Ovals, but Don't Start Him Here
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well but Probably Won't Have Staying Power
Carson Hocevar

Lack of Finesse Makes Him a Risky Martinsville Pick
Bryce Harper

Phillies Aren't Planning to Trade Bryce Harper
Bo Bichette

Starting at Second, Batting Cleanup in Game 1 of World Series
Bo Bichette

Makes World Series Roster
Ciryl Gane

Scheduled For A Title Fight
Tom Aspinall

Set for First Official Title Defense
Mackenzie Dern

Can Become The New Strawweight Champion
Virna Jandiroba

Set For UFC 321 Co-Main Event
Mario Bautista

Aims To Extend His Win Streak
MMA

Umar Numagomedov A Favorite At UFC 321
Jailton Almeida

Hopes To Get A Title Shot With A Win
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Azamat Murzakanov

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aleksandar Rakic

In Dire Need Of Victory

RANKINGS

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RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
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C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
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