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In Week 12, we came out even. Jacksonville got crushed by Tennessee, which I wasn't expecting in the slightest, but Seattle taking care of business against Philadelphia was a great part of the weekend. Then our special picks on Thanksgiving saw the Bears squeak out a win (they really are bad) and the Bills and Cowboys put together the game of the day.
- Week 12 Picks: 2-2 (50%) Thanksgiving Picks: 2-1 (66%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 25-25 (50%)
I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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San Francisco at Baltimore (-5.5)
O/U: 46.5
The 49ers have been a pleasant surprise this season and they’re in a great position heading into playoff crunch time. Jimmy Garappolo has been a high-quality quarterback and his 20 touchdowns are sixth in the league. The run game has been all over the place recently, but Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida form a formidable backfield duo. Defensively, San Francisco is top two in points against (14.8 points per game) and first in yards allowed (248 yards per game), but they’ll really be put to the test this week.
It’s been the Lamar Jackson show in Baltimore, and to the shock of few. Over their seven-game winning streak, Jackson has a 14/3 TD/Int with five rushing scores, and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing up. Mark Ingram is a solid backfield counterpart, but Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews are key passing-game pieces as well. On the defensive side, the Ravens allow just 18.4 ppg, but slip up a bit at home, averaging 20.4 ppg allowed. They’ll get a test this week, but they held the Patriots in check a few weeks back, so it is possible.
However, you’re telling me that a team who is an overtime loss short of being undefeated is nearly a touchdown underdog just because they're on the road? Vegas is clearly baiting the public here. San Francisco is 3-0 against the spread as underdogs this year, and 5-0 straight up on the road. Meanwhile, Baltimore is just 2-3 ATS at home and only 4-4 as the favorite.
Pick: San Francisco +5.5
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (+1)
O/U: 47.5
The Bucs are one of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL, but it’s mainly because their passing defense lets opposing teams walk all over them, so they have to score plenty. Jamies Winston is still as interception prone as it gets, but he also can throw touchdowns at a high rate. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are hands down the top receiving duo in the league and when they get the ball in their hands, big things happen. Defensively, their 30.5 points allowed per game rank 31st in the league, ahead of just the Miami Dolphins, and their 289.9 passing yards given up per game is also second-worst. A scout team could tear up this secondary.
The Jaguars have been pretty awful of late, averaging just 12 ppg across a three-game losing streak. However, Nick Foles is still trying to mesh with the offense again, but he’ll really have to put something together this week. Leonard Fournette is quietly having a big year, but he has just three rushing scores. They’ll need more from him, but if Foles can connect with D.J. Chark and Chris Conley, it should open up plenty of chances to balance out the offense. On the defensive end, Jacksonville has been one of the worst over their recent skid, giving up 423 ypg and 33.7 ppg.
From a gambling perspective, Tampa Bay is one of the hottest teams to target the over, as the total has gone over in nine of their 11 games, and five of their six road games. While Jacksonville isn’t as much of a point-scoring machine, Foles having the last few weeks to get back up to game speed should help him torch this porous TB pass defense.
Pick: Over 47.5
LA Rams at Arizona (+3)
O/U: 47.5
This Rams team has struggled to do anything exciting over the last few weeks, but they have a pretty solid spot this week. The Rams undoubtedly have the talent on offense with Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and Cooper Kupp but for some reason, they haven’t done anything the last few weeks. Averaging just 12 ppg over the last three games, the Rams have been near anemic. Defensively, they have the 3rd ranked run defense by DVOA but in the passing game, they’re not quite as stout, ranking 20th.
Arizona is an interesting team, in that they’ve scored at least 25 points in six of their last seven but they’re just 3-4 in that stretch. Kyler Murray has shown he can get it done at the NFL level, and even when facing off against top defenses. However, while the mix-and-match run game between Kenyan Drake and David Johnson has been rough at times, Murray keeps the offense moving. On the other hand, their defensive unit is atrocious, allowing 29 ppg and around 415 ypg. It’s not hard to move the ball against this defense.
Both of these teams don’t start games very strongly. LA only averages 11 ppg at halftime when on the road, meanwhile, Arizona averages just 8 ppg at the break when playing host. Both offenses have the talent, but it’s tough to trust either of them right now.
Pick: 1st Half Under 23.5
Minnesota at Seattle (-3)
O/U: 49
Minnesota is rolling out of their bye week as winners of six of their last seven games, with the loss being to the Chiefs on the road. Dalvin Cook is an absolute stud and Adam Thielen has begun practicing again, so if they get him back this offense gets an enormous boost. On Seattle’s sideline, Russell Wilson is arguably the top quarterback in football at the moment. Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny are unpredictable in the backfield, so expect Seattle to rely heavily on Wilson.
While the Seahawks are on a nice four-game win streak themselves, they’ve struggled to score on Philadelphia and been taken to overtime with Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s wins over Denver, Dallas, and Washington aren’t all that impressive, but Cook’s ability to run over just about anyone gives Minnesota the edge here.
Pick: Minnesota ML +129
