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Steve Janik's NCAA college football betting picks for Week 11. He analyzes CFB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Last week was green and it was a fun one. Oregon State not only covered the 5.5 points, they outright beat Arizona by 18, while Cincinnati got a scare from ECU, but both teams put up points with ease, ensuring an over hit. UAB wasn't able to make it happen against Tennessee, but I still love that play and think the Blazers are one of the better group of five schools in the country. Somehow we're already onto Week 11!
- Week 10 Picks: 2-1 (66%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 15-17 (47%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this week in the NCAA. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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Kansas State at Texas (-7)
O/U: 58
Kansas State is riding high off a three-game win streak, which includes the upset of Oklahoma. As is tradition, this team finds themselves right in the mix of the Big 12, but one more loss in conference play makes things much more difficult. Quarterback Skylar Thompson has been quite the dual-threat playmaker for the Wildcats, rushing for 10 scores and throwing for seven more. This offense should be able to move the ball against a struggling Texas defense, but it will come down to the KSU defense (allowing 20.4 points per game) being able to slow up the Longhorns on the road.
The Longhorns season has been quite the disappointment after some considered them preseason College Football Playoff contenders. Sam Ehlinger has proven his worth, accounting for over 2,800 yards and 28 touchdowns this season. Unfortunately, Texas’ defense has dropped the ball, allowing an average of 31 ppg, including 36 ppg in Big 12 play. However, they welcome back several starters this week, after a bye, and are fighting for dear life to stay relevant in terms of a conference title appearance.
Since Tom Herman took over at Texas in 2017, they’ve played 14 games against ranked opponents, and in those games, the total has gone under 10 times. Meanwhile, the under has hit five times in KSU’s eight games this season, including twice on the road. While both offenses are strong, I think with Texas’ defense getting healthy and Kansas State out to prove they're legit, this is going to be a slugfest of a Big 12 matchup and it will be a tight game.
Pick: Under 58
LSU at Alabama (-6.5)
O/U: 65
LSU is having a memorable season thus far and it gets another test this weekend in Tuscaloosa. Quarterback Joe Burrow is in the Heisman discussion with over 2,800 yards and 30 passing touchdowns. Right now his arm is what is keeping the Tigers’ clock ticking. Their defense has been stout as well, allowing just 20 ppg, 315 yards per game, and only 20 scores through eight games. The Tigers have had some tough matchups so far, but make no mistake, this game has been circled on LSU’s calendar all year.
It’s a pretty rare situation that Alabama is in a must-win situation, but many think that the Tide can’t afford to lose to LSU this Saturday. Luckily for Alabama, Tua Tagovailoa is slated to return from injury this week, after undergoing ankle surgery just two weeks ago. Regardless, you can expect the Tide to emphasize the run with Najee Harris, as well as rely on their defense that allows just 307 yards and 15 ppg.
Historically, this matchup is a low-scoring affair. In each of the last 10 meetings, the total has gone under seven times with three pushes. So you can make a point for the under with such a high total in such a big game, but I also see this as a close, back-and-forth game. Burrow will solidify himself as the Heisman front runner and make this game one for the ages.
Pick: LSU +6.5
Illinois at Michigan State (-14.5)
O/U: 45.5
As winners of three straight, Illinois is a team that has made some waves throughout the Big 10, and at an important time for the program. With a win over Michigan State, they’ll be bowl eligible for the first time since 2014, and quite frankly, they don’t do anything spectacular. Brandon Peters leads an offense that averages 30 ppg but just 325 ypg. However, they’ll look to exploit a defense that has given up 658 rushing yards over their last three. Defensively, the Illini lead the nation in takeaways (22), so you can anticipate they’ll look to continue that trend in East Lansing.
The Spartans are in a rough spot of late, dropping their last three games and being outscored 100-17. As you could imagine, the offense has been to blame. Michigan State hasn’t accrued over 285 yards of offense in any of their last three games, and more significantly, they have seven turnovers over the losing streak. Playing against the nation’s top takeaway defense, Sparty will have to hold onto the football this week to not drop four straight.
According to Chris Fallica of ESPN, Michigan State is 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games when favored by 14 or more points. On the other side, Illinois isn't getting much love here despite their strong play recently, and most importantly, they've covered in each of their last four. Coach Lovie Smith has the Illini playing some strong ball, as they are vying for bowl eligibility.
Pick: Illinois +14.5
