RADIO
Last week was on a fantastic path to perfection, that is until Baylor decided to drop 35 in the second half after scoring just 10 before halftime. Otherwise, it was a great week with the two winners hitting comfortably. I was at a wedding so there wasn't much time to enjoy football, but I most certainly was paying attention when I could.
- Week 8 Picks: 2-1 (50%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 13-13 (50%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this week of the NCAA. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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Wisconsin at Ohio State (-14)
O/U: 50
The Badgers were absolutely stunned by Illinois a week ago, effectively ending their College Football Playoff hopes. The 24-23 loss was the first time that Wisconsin allowed more than 15 points in a game this season, but keep in mind this defense also has four shutouts this year. Offensively, star running back Johnathan Taylor is the heart and soul of the unit, and he has rushed for 534 yards with six touchdowns in Big 10 games this year. While OSU’s defense is tough, they haven’t faced a running attack like the Badgers possess.
This Ohio State team very well could be the best in the country. The defense has been great, but man this offense is special. Averaging just below 530 yards per game, the unit has also scored 46 touchdowns through seven games. Quarterback Justin Fields has been the elite dual-threat quarterback many expected when he originally committed to Georgia, but add in halfback J.K. Dobbins and the one-two-punch of this offense is unheard of.
After last week’s loss, Wisconsin will be out for revenge. On the other side, Ohio State’s offense is one that you will read about for years to come. However, this is going to be a big-time matchup between two schools with different things to prove. While both sides have had the under hit at least three times so far this year, if there are two teams in the country that have proven capable of scoring 26 or more in a game, it’s Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Pick: Over 50
Duke at North Carolina (-3.5)
O/U: 54
The Blue Devils are driven by the ground game, which is led by quarterback Quentin Harris. The dual-threat signal-caller has thrown for just under 1,300 yards while rushing for 400 more and accounting for 17 touchdowns this season. Aside from a big loss to Virginia a week ago, Duke has managed to carry a 2-2 record through ACC play and will be looking to make a statement in this rivalry game. Defensively, the Blue Devils have been solid; however, aside from matchups with Alabama and UVA, they haven’t been tested much.
UNC has had a wild string of games over the last three weeks. The almost upset Clemson at home, losing 21-20, before downing Georgia Tech 38-22, and then losing 43-41 in six overtimes (!!) to Virginia Tech last week on the road. This week they battle it out for the Victory Bell and have homecoming all in one day. They’re led by quarterback Sam Howell, who has been fantastic with a 20:3 TD:INT ratio. However, the running game has struggled with consistency, and just last week they rushed for 116 yards in the first half but then finished with just 143 on the game. Head coach Mack Brown has made an emphasis on improving the run game, so it will be interesting to see how they fair this week.
Considering that UNC hasn’t beaten Duke since 2015, these seniors will be extra motivated. I believe this is the team to do it, thanks to how they handled the last few games. This one will be close, but ultimately the Tar Heels are the better team.
Pick: North Carolina -3.5
Hawaii at New Mexico (+10)
O/U: 69.5
Hawaii football is in a bad place after losing their last two games by a combined score of 115-63. Add on that they had to dismiss receiver Melquise Stovall this week, and things don’t seem to be getting better. While he wasn’t their top receiver, dismissing players mid-year is a bad look for a program. Quarterback Cole McDonald has been solid running the offense, throwing for 2200 yards and 23 touchdowns, while receivers Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward have combined for 16 receiving touchdowns. Defensively, 36 points allowed per game is one of the nation’s worst, and the Warriors could very well struggle to stop even a desolate New Mexico offense.
However, New Mexico is down to its third-string quarterback after suspending Sheriron Jones indefinitely. Instead, they’ll bring out Tevaka Tuioti who brings a dual-threat aspect to the offense, and coach Bob Davie has even admitted the offense is more explosive with him on the field. However, the Lobos have averaged just 15 points over their past four games, and while Tuioti should help, there’s not much hope for New Mexico.
Hawaii hasn’t had a problem putting points on the board, while New Mexico’s program has some things they need to figure out on both sides of the ball. When Hawaii is on the road since the beginning of 2018, the total has gone over seven times in nine games, and while I normally side with trends, I think the total is just too high in this spot.
Pick: Under 69.5
