RADIO
Just when you thought you had your rookie rankings all set, it's all about to change a week from now.
There are bound to be surprises in the NFL Draft, as usual. Eager dynasty owners will look at opportunistic landing spots for mid-round picks and sleepers, while some later picks could suddenly become fantasy-relevant as well.
For now, we're going to focus on the likely first round selections for dynasty rookie drafts. While you know the names at the top of the board, you may not have them in the same order. Here's my take on the top rookies for dynasty leagues, before the NFL Draft takes place and messes everything up!
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Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings for Dynasty
1.01 Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
It isn’t often that a prospect comes into the league getting athletic comparisons to Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson. When a prospect of this caliber comes around, don’t get cute with your drafts or try to go against the grain. There are really no arguments against taking Saquon Barkley with the first pick in your dynasty draft. Regardless of the format, even in superflex or 2QB leagues, Barkley is without a doubt the number one pick.
Barkley is an excellent combination of explosive, elusive, patient, and powerful. In this day in age, pass-catching running backs are huge, and Barkley catches the ball great out of the backfield. The only knock I’ve seen on him is that a nice chunk of his college yards and touchdowns came off of big plays. While this can be viewed as a bad thing, it also just shows how big of a threat he is every time he gets the ball in his hands. There’s a reason this guy is already going in the first round of dynasty startup RBs, and it makes sense.
1.02 Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
Had it not been for the ridiculous prospect of Barkley, Derrius Guice would be more than likely the obvious choice as the top RB in this draft class. Guice has a very intriguing combination of running with power and explosiveness, while still having nice lateral agility. He has great balance and vision, which was a trait that Kareem Hunt had going into the draft last year, and it translated very well. Not to say that you should expect Hunt’s type of production, but those are some traits that translate to the NFL fairly quickly.
Guice was great in 2016, and struggled with injuries in 2017. He also dropped from 7.6 YPC to 5.3 YPC in these two years. Some of the concerns with Guice are his pass protection and his receiving ability. He wasn’t utilized much in the pass game, but that doesn’t mean he can’t catch by any means, there’s just a small sample size to base it off.
1.03 Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
After the first two picks in the draft of Barkley and Guice, this is where things start to get interesting. Being as these are pre-draft rankings, there is a good chance that a dreamy landing spot could change some of these next few guys. My next ranked prospect is Sony Michel out of Georgia. Michel put up excellent numbers for his size at the combine, and at that point he jumped up my rankings a bit. At 5’11 215, he moves lateral very well for his size, but his explosiveness isn’t great.
One of the key factors that should help Michel get production early on in his NFL career, is his pass protect ability. Michel tends to avoid big hits and he runs between the tackles well. He didn’t do a lot in the passing game at Georgia, but he did just fine with dump-off plays.
1.04 DJ Moore, WR, Maryland
DJ Moore is a guy that has been creeping up rookie draft boards as of late, and he is my number one receiver prior to the NFL draft. The way this receiving class is shaping out to be, it would take a great landing spot by a fairly highly-ranked WR prospect to pass Moore as my number one receiver. One of his traits I like a lot is his ability to separate. He uses his body well to create his own separation, and has the quickness and agility to create YAC on his own. His combine numbers were great for his size, as he is a 6’0, 210-lb WR with a 4.42 40 time. He’ll need to expand his route tree as he makes his mark in the NFL, but Moore is looking like the best WR prospect of this class. It is also worth noting that Moore seems more suited to play a slot receiver role, which is the case with the majority of the WRs in this class.
1.05 Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State
The value of pass-catching RBs in the NFL anymore is inevitable. Most teams take a dual backfield approach and utilize a pass-catching, 3rd down back if they have one. Rashaad Penny is a guy that I like a lot, and a big reason for that is his upside in the pass game. Most fantasy football leagues anymore are PPR leagues, and these pass-catching RBs are even more valuable in these leagues. Penny has excellent vision, he hits his holes hard, and is very decisive. Combine these traits with his upside in the pass-game, and you’re looking at possibly a RB with a high ceiling and a solid floor for fantasy purposes.
The biggest issue for me with Penny is his pass-protection. I’ve seen several different analysts out there talk about him possibly being the worst in this class in that category. Having said that, after watching a good chunk of his film, I think that some of this could come from just plain laziness. In some cases, I think college players get lazy as they get used to their role and don’t have much to go out there and prove on a weekly basis. Pass protection will be the biggest question for me on Penny, but I believe his PPR upside makes up for this in a big way.
1.06 Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia
I have Nick Chubb a little lower than some people do in my rookie rankings, as there are definitely some things that concern me with him. The combine did make me feel a little better, seeing him able to cut well with good agility despite his knee injury in 2016. Let’s not forget, he tore every ligament in his knee except for the ACL. While it is good the ACL was intact, this is a very serious injury nonetheless. Had he torn the ACL, it would’ve been on the same level as Teddy Bridgewater’s knee injury.
Chubb moves very well for his size, and he definitely has some upside as a prospect heading into the NFL. He moves laterally very well for his size, and he has good patience. His knee is the biggest thing for me, and I don’t feel good about his long-term heath in the league. Chubb isn’t one to avoid contact. He takes hits, and while I do like a RB that isn’t afraid of contact, the combination of him taking these hits and my concern with his long-term health drops him several notches for me. Having said that, I do like him as a prospect and think he has good upside, he just isn’t in that top tier for me.
1.07 Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn
Kerryon Johnson is one of my favorite running backs in these year’s draft, and he may move ahead of Chubb before all is said and done. If he lands in a great spot, he could slide ever higher for me. If you really want to get overly excited about Johnson, compare his patience and explosiveness to one of the league’s best running backs, Le’Veon Bell. Don’t get too carried away or take this as a direct player comparison for Johnson, but I can’t help but see a bit of Bell in him with those particular traits. He is very versatile and while his patience and explosiveness I love, his upside may be limited, at least for a while.
Johnson lacks in the passing game, and this day in age, that cannot be overlooked. Especially in fantasy football, where volume is king. Johnson has excellent pass protection, which could lead to work early on in his career, and has legit three down potential as a back. He runs fairly upright and has a decent history of injuries. Johnson has a ton of upside, and is one of my favorite prospects of this rookie class.
1.08 Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
Courtland Sutton is the number one wide receiver on many expert boards for this year’s class, and could very well be the first WR taken in the 2018 NFL Draft. With all of the slot receiver prospects and many experts out there talking about this class not having a true WR1 potential prospect, I believe Sutton has the best chance at this. With the recent departure of Dez Bryant in Dallas, this could be a realistic landing spot, and would offer some immediate volume and production in fantasy.
One of the most intriguing factors with Sutton, is his elite combine numbers, for a WR of his size. At 6’3”, 215 lbs, I was not expecting this type of a combine out of Sutton. His 4.54 40 yard dash with excellent three cone and shuttle times, is ridiculous for a guy of this size. His SPARQ score of 118.0 puts him in the 84th percentile for WRs, according to PlayerProfiler.com. Sutton landing in the right spot could move him up a spot or two in my rankings, even putting him above my beloved DJ Moore.
1.09 James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
James Washington is a very intriguing prospect this year, with a lot of upside as a fantasy football asset. Washington does an excellent job of creating his own separation and has the speed to get downfield and burn defenders. His combine numbers were average, but on film he shows his ability to take off and has enough speed to make big plays. Washington averaged 19.8 YPC over the course of his college career, but he also played in the Big-12.
Washington’s strong hands and excellent body control make up for his size at 5’11” and roughly 210lbs. He could land in the right spot and end up being an excellent WR2 with upside. It’s always nice to get a WR that compliments a big name WR in the league, similar to Sterling Shepard opposite Odell Beckham or JuJu Smith-Schuster/Martavis Bryant opposite of Antonio Brown. This is the type of situation that I think Washington would benefit from. Landing spot is big with him.
1.10 John Kelly, RB, Tennessee
John Kelly is a very interesting prospect in this year’s RB class, and I believe has a fair amount of upside in the NFL. Some of the upside that comes from Kelly is in his ability to be a PPR threat. He excels in the open field and a lot of his tape shows him making defenders miss him, as well as being a guy that doesn’t go down easily. Kelly is also solid in pass protection, offering a good chance for him to get some playing time early on.
One of the knocks I have on Kelly is his speed. His burst was below average at the combine and his SPARQ score in the 8th percentile is concerning. One of the interesting comparisons is that his combine numbers are extremely similar to Kareem Hunt. This is a perfect example of how landing in the right spot can cause stock to jump a great deal. Last year, Hunt landing in Kansas City put him on the map early as a RB to target in your drafts. Kelly’s landing spot will need to be monitored, but I like his upside a lot.
1.11 Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon
I am always a fan of a RB with good size as well as good speed and agility. Royce Freeman was someone that I was waiting for the combine to see how I felt about him. He showed fine speed and agility in college, but at 6’0 230lbs, I wasn’t expecting this from him at the combine. Freeman has good vision and is someone that seems to always be fighting for extra yards when he gets the ball.
One of the downsides of Freeman was that he wasn’t used a lot in the passing game in 2017. Anymore, when I look at RB prospects, this is a trait that is huge to me. He is fine in pass protection, but this could be improved upon. He had been more involved in the passing game early on in his career, but in 2017 he wasn’t as much for some reason. Freeman has three-down RB potential and if he is used in the passing game too, he could have a nice ceiling. Landing spot is big for Freeman.
1.12 Ronald Jones, RB, USC
Ronald Jones is someone that I am lower on than most people that I’ve seen. Jones highlights are great, but I believe his tape is much more telling of his realistic upside and ability. Jones’ combine was cut short after he suffered a hamstring injury during his 40-yard dash, so we weren’t able to see his other workouts. Jones put up 1,737 yards from scrimmage and 20 TDs in 2017, which might be a reason why people have him ranked so high. He could very well fall to the second round in a less than ideal landing spot.
Some of the major areas for concern I have for Jones are his vision, pass catching ability isn’t great, and I felt like he gets brought down petty easily. Pro Football Focus had a few stats on Jones about him having one of the lowest yards created per attempt and forced missed tackles per attempt. Although I think the potential is there for Jones, with all of these red flags, he’s someone I am pretty low on, and as stated previously, could very easily be putting him in the second round of rookie drafts based on draft position.
More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy
