👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NBA DFS Risers and Fallers for Week 16

A lot can change in the NBA landscape in just a weeks' time. Since we last talked, John Wall and Kevin Love have gone down to injury and will miss serious time, and trade happenings are moving players - or just keeping them on the sideline until a deal gets done. Throw all of that mess on top of the already chaotic hour or two leading up to lock time - where we deal with countless late scratches and start/rest situations - and you've got a recipe for some difficult decisions to make when you need to construct your roster.

Of course, the silver lining to much of the chaos I just mentioned is that these moves open up opportunity - in the form of minutes, Usage rate, etc - for some of the up-and-comers. If we're able to identify these plays before the public does, we not only gain an advantage (by way of leverage) in tournaments, but we also get these players at a much lower price point.

Before I get further off on a tangent, here are two players whose current salaries outweigh their production, and two others who have become too cheap to ignore. Let's take a look.

Featured Promo: New Novig users get a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig deposit, and 6 free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL) which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS and more! CLAIM IT NOW

 

DFS Value Risers - Week 16

Jamal Murray (PG/SG, DEN)

Jamal Murray is one of the draft picks I was most intrigued with - from a fantasy perspective and just general offensive contribution - from the 2016 NBA Draft, and he's starting to resemble the super threat self he was back in his college days. Since he really stepped onto the stage earlier this month, he's contributed DraftKings point total performances of 40, 47 and 54, to name a few. He's not going to produce at that level consistency, but he is showing an elite ceiling. The reason he's even higher on my radar right now is that, after three mediocre performances, his price is a drastic $1,200 less than it was 4 days ago. For the season, he's averaging .91 DraftKings points per minute, and when he's playing his usual allotment of 32-36 minutes with a 23% Usage rate, he has the ability to provide a safe floor and a high ceiling - currently at a value price. The position flexibility here ups his value as well. His next few opponents - Thunder, Warriors, Hornets and Rockets all offer (save for Charlotte) their own unique set of defensive challenges, but they present offensive opportunity in the form of fast paced matchups that result, usually, in high-scoring affairs. He's a big time GPP asset this week.

Pau Gasol (PF/C, SAS)

The value we've seemingly lost in the back court in San Antonio has resurfaced in the front court, in this case in the form of Pau Gasol. Gasol's price has dropped $1,100 since January 28th. A look through his game logs reveal he was able to hit and surpass value in four of his last six games, so the drop is a bit surprising. Nonetheless, he is the type of player that provides a stable floor of production, and when San Antonio is resting other front court teammates (as they often do), we see Gasol's Usage rate percentage climb over 20%. His current production per minute is relatively fantastic (1.1), and when he plays for 25+ minutes, he'll have little trouble providing cash value. His ultimate ceiling is a little limited, which takes him out of consideration for tournaments on most nights, but he's worth a shot on smaller slates. As for cash games, he's a good play at this price point and I'd continue rolling him out in good situations until that price creeps back above 6k.

 

DFS Value Fallers - Week 15

Dejounte Murray (PG, SAS)

Oh, Dejounte, it pains me to place you in this section, because, well, it sort of paints you in a negative light. After all, this is the value falling section. Murray's play, however, has been rising (along with his minutes) and he's packaged together some really impressive performances thus far since getting "the nod" from Coach Popovich. He's exceeded his price implied value in seven straight games. Even after his price has crept up above $5.5K, he's manged to exceed value by 2-4 points. The problem, here, is that I think we've seen enough of his ceiling and a consistent floor such that he'll be priced in a way that it will be difficult for him to give us plus-value - the kind of performances that are so far above their price implied total, that they alter the landscape of tournaments. Before his price reached it's current point - $5,900 - he was exceeding value by large margins - double digits, even. The other downside here is that the Spurs offense itself somewhat limits Murray's upside. As he stands right now, he's still a fine cash game play. The minutes look solid and the Usage rate is back above 20%. That said, the value has certainly decreased and the tournament allure has dwindled a healthy amount.

Gerald Green (SG/SF, HOU)

The Gerald Green fantasy era of early January - what a fun ride that was while it lasted. A few fantasy point explosions and locker room scuffles later, and we find ourselves with the option to roster Green at a steep price with very uncertain minutes and a dwindling Usage rate. That's a big "no thank you" from me, unless something changes (injury, trade) that would open up the opportunity again. Green's fantasy production was almost entirely (too) reliant on scoring buckets, and since that Usage rate well has dried up for him, he's not offering much in terms of floor or ceiling. The Eric Gordon back-tweak injury could lend him a few minutes, but he's still hard pass with a price point of $5,600.

 

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis





POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Nicholas Paul Rejoins Lightning Lineup
Cole Caufield

Cleared to Play Saturday
Alex Tuch

Set to Return Saturday
Bobby Brink

Remains Out Saturday
J.T. Miller

Returns to Action Saturday
Joe Ryan

Won't Pitch in the World Baseball Classic
Courtland Sutton

Will Courtland Sutton Lose Targets to Younger Teammates?
Rashee Rice

Looking to Return to Rookie Form?
Omarion Hampton

Has High Upside with New Offensive Coordinator
Trey Lance

Returns to the Chargers on a One-Year Deal
A.J. Brown

Rams Out on A.J. Brown, Trade to Patriots Likely?
Calvin Ridley

Restructures Deal with Titans
Jonathan Taylor

Is Jonathan Taylor Being Undervalued in Dynasty?
Tony Pollard

Can Tony Pollard Keep the RB1 Spot for Titans?
David Montgomery

Has Contract Updated by Texans
Zack Wheeler

Throws First Live BP Session on Saturday
Chris Godwin Jr.

Can Chris Godwin Jr. be the Buccaneers' WR1?
LeQuint Allen Jr.

Can LeQuint Allen Jr. Emerge as the Primary Receiving Back in Jacksonville?
Isaiah Davis

Appears Buried on the Jets Running Back Depth Chart
Merrill Kelly

Expected to Open Season on the Injured List
Christian Kirk

Dynasty Value is Fading Heading into 2026
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Packers Interested in Acquiring Anthony Richardson Sr.?
Kevin Gausman

Named Toronto's Opening Day Starter
Oronde Gadsden

Has High-End Dynasty Upside After Promising Rookie Year
Kyle Stowers

Back in Grapefruit League Lineup
Jerome Ford

Commanders Agree With Jerome Ford on One-Year Deal
Nick Bosa

49ers Restructure Nick Bosa's Contract
Kevin Porter Jr.

Questionable Against Hawks
Devin Carter

Out Saturday Against Clippers
Russell Westbrook

Set to Return Against Clippers
Derrick White

Expected to Play Saturday Against Wizards
Michael Porter Jr.

Likely to Miss Second Straight Game
Nicolas Claxton

to Rest Saturday Against Philadelphia
Ace Bailey

Leaves Friday's Game Early with Concussion
Radko Gudas

Handed a Five-Game Suspension
Auston Matthews

to Miss Rest of Season
Tory Horton

Faces Stiff Target Competition Again
Kaleb Johnson

a Cut Candidate in Dynasty Leagues?
DK Metcalf

Has More Competition for Targets in Pittsburgh
Emil Heineman

Scores Twice Against the Kings
Trey McBride

to Repeat Incredible Season with Quarterback Returning?
Joel Hofer

Shuts Down the Oilers
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Could Miss Saturday's Game Vs. Hawks
Keegan Murray

to Be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Aaron Gordon

Expected Back Saturday Vs. Lakers
Jamal Murray

Expected to Suit Up Saturday
Collin Sexton

to Miss Third Straight Game
Jalen Smith

is Ruled Out for Friday's Game
Robert Williams III

is Unavailable for Friday's Contest
Draymond Green

is Downgraded to Out on Friday
De'Anthony Melton

to Play on Friday
Ayo Dosunmu

is Cleared for Friday's Game
Anthony Edwards

is Available on Friday
Norman Powell

is Tagged as Questionable for Saturday
Victor Wembanyama

Questionable Saturday Vs. Hornets
Andrew Wiggins

to Miss Fifth Straight Game
Francisco Lindor

Takes Full Batting Practice on Friday
Brandon Woodruff

Still TBD for Opening Day
Trevor Rogers

to Start on Opening Day for Orioles
Kevin Vallejos

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Josh Emmett

In Dire Need Of Victory
Gillian Robertson

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 114
Amanda Lemos

Set For Co-Main Event
Oumar Sy

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Ion Cutelaba

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Nathan MacKinnon

Racks Up Four Points in Victory Over Kraken
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere Stays Hot in Winnipeg
Semyon Varlamov

Won't Return This Season
Alexander Romanov

Could Return for Playoffs
Declan Carlile

Hurt on Thursday Night
Wyatt Kaiser

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Thursday
Erik Gudbranson

Could Be an Option Saturday
Auston Matthews

Exits Game With Injury
Jimmy Snuggerud

Scores Twice Versus Carolina
Michael Misa

Delivers Multi-Point Performance on Thursday
Blake Snell

Around Six Weeks From Being Fully Built Up
Bobby Brink

a Game-Time Decision for Meeting with Flyers
Evander Kane

Available Against Predators
Zack Wheeler

to Face Hitters in Live Batting Practice on Saturday
Gerrit Cole

Could Pitch in a Spring Game Next Week
Matthew Boyd

Named the Cubs' Opening Day Starter
Francisco Lindor

Remains on Schedule for Opening Day
Bryce Miller

Shuts Down Bullpen Due to More Oblique Discomfort
Zac Gallen

Named Arizona's Opening Day Starter
Kyle Teel

Could Miss 4-6 Weeks With Hamstring Strain
Hideki Matsuyama

Brings Strong Course History to TPC Sawgrass
Josh Hader

to Start the Year on the Injured List
Adam Scott

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Kyle Teel

Exits Tuesday's Game With Hamstring Injury
Rickie Fowler

on Quite the Run Heading to TPC Sawgrass
Sepp Straka

Needs to Forget What Happened Sunday at Bay Hill
Jordan Spieth

an Enigma Heading to The Players Championship
Justin Rose

Trying to Pick Up the Pieces in Florida
Maverick McNealy

Bounces Back at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Brooks Koepka

Continues His Florida Swing With Some Momentum
Nicolai Hojgaard

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Robert MacIntyre

a Volatile Option at The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Return to Top Form at The Players
Sam Burns

a High-Risk, High-Reward Option at The Players
Keegan Bradley

Hard to Trust at The Players
Xander Schauffele

Rounding into Form Heading to Players Championship
Rory McIlroy

Set to Return at Players Championship to Defend Title
Jake Knapp

Set to Return at Players Championship
Viktor Hovland

Continues Strong Start to 2026 Season
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking for Bounce-Back at Players Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Will Need to Find Putter to Compete at Players Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Continues Improving Heading to Players Championship
Merrill Kelly

Set to Make Spring Training Debut on Friday
Francisco Lindor

"100 Percent Optimistic" he Can be Ready for Opening Day
Justin Thomas

Continues Competitive Return at The Players Championship
Corbin Carroll

Set to Play in Cactus League Game on Wednesday
Max Holloway

Drops Decision At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Becomes The New BMF Champion
Caio Borralho

Bounces Back
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Rob Font

Gets Dominated
Raul Rosas Jr.

Extends His Win Streak
Michael Johnson

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Drew Dober

Knocks Out Michael Johnson
Ryan Blaney

Earns his Second Consecutive Phoenix Cup Series Win
Christopher Bell

Falls Short of Victory Despite Dominating at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Earns Hard-Fought Finish of Third at Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Quietly Gains Another Top-Five Finish at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Crashes out at Phoenix Despite Strong Run