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Welcome to the 2017 edition of the Recently Promoted Prospects! Here I discuss some recently promoted prospects and what to make of their production for fantasy owners.
The month of June has been a big one for prospect promotions. We have seen Derek Fisher, Lewis Brinson, Jacob Faria, Sean Newcomb, Francis Martes and many more top prospects called up to the majors since the summer’s first month began. This week has been no different, as two MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospects have been promoted to the big leagues, as has one of the top catching prospects available. What value might these guys have in store for your fantasy team? Give this piece a read and find out.
So without any further ado, let’s get right into talking about the recently promoted prospects for week 12!
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Hitters:
Tom Murphy (C, COL) - 7% owned
Murphy missed the first two months of the season with a broken forearm, but finally returned to the already-potent Colorado Rockies’ lineup on June 15. He spent only seven games at Triple-A on a rehab stint before he was promoted back up to the majors, and was largely dominant in the minors, posting a .414/.419/.724 slash line with a home run in 31 plate appearances. He is so far hitless in his two games started, but that should not be too much of a concern just yet.
If a player like Murphy played almost any other position in any other ballpark, he might be a concerning own. Murphy generally strikes out over 24 percent of the time in the minors, and has never been prone to walking, indicative of a hitter with poor patience. As a result, his batting average has never been great, though he did manage a .327 average in 80 games at Triple-A in 2016. But what makes Murphy promising is his jaw-dropping power. He has always been a great home run hitter, evidenced by the 19 homers he mashed in those 80 games last season at Triple-A and the five homers he hit in 21 games at the big-league level last season. And what’s more, he bats in one of the best lineups in baseball and calls the super-hitter-friendly ballpark Coors Field home.
There aren’t many power-hitting catchers this season. In fact, only five have double-digit home run totals, and one of those catchers is batting .218 on the season. Because of this Murphy would be a solid add for owners in 12 team leagues looking for home runs from the catcher position, and a must-own in all leagues deeper than 12 teams.
Matt Chapman (3B, OAK) - 3% owned
Shortly after designating Trevor Plouffe for assignment, the Oakland Athletics promoted one of their top prospects, third baseman Matt Chapman. The 24-year-old had been enjoying a strong Triple-A campaign, slashing .259/.350/.592 with 16 home runs in 48 games. He also struck out 31.0 percent of the time — a high rate, but not unusual for a young slugger. Over his first four games, however, he has not looked the part of a top prospect, only mustering a .214/.313/.286 slash line with no home runs and a 43.8 percent strikeout rate. He has missed a couple games recently for a knee infection, but is not expected to spend time on the DL.
There is plenty of upside to be had with Chapman, but owners will need to be patient. As a young slugger, he is going to go through some cold spells and his strikeouts will keep his batting average below .250 for most, if not all of the season. But with Plouffe now gone, I expect Chapman to man the hot corner for the rest of the season. And with his power and likely placement at the fifth/sixth spot in the lineup for the rest of the season, he could be a solid contributor in the home run and RBI categories over the second-half of the season. In 10 team or fewer leagues, there are better options at third base, but he could be worth owning as depth in 12 team leagues and as a possible starter in 14+ team leagues.
Jesse Winker (OF, CIN) - 2% owned
Once Zack Cozart was placed on the 10-day disabled list and the Cincinnati Reds traveled down to Tampa Bay, the decision was made to promote Jesse Winker to serve as the designated hitter for the brief trip to face an American League team. The Reds’ second-best prospect (third-best if you count Hunter Greene), Winker had been posting numbers that looked all too familiar for the left fielder, in fact nearly identical to his Triple-A numbers from last season. He had as many walks as strikeouts (12.2 percent rates for both stats), a batting average above .300 (.317 to be exact) and a low single-digit home run total (two).
Winker is a gifted hitter, one who probably has the best plate discipline of any hitter in the minors. He is not going to strikeout and he is going to get on base a lot. However, he has not been a great power hitter at real any point during his MiLB career. I believe Great American Ballpark can help him increase that home run total to somewhere around 15 on an annual basis, but this season will probably not be the season he does that. And with the Reds boasting three outfielders who are all locked into starting spots, Winker is a little ways away from regular playing time. He can be ignored until a spot in the outfield opens up for him.
Gavin Cecchini (SS, NYM) - 0% owned
So Cecchini was promoted following injuries to both Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker to help serve as some infield depth. He was not tearing up the minors by any means, especially considering he played in the Pacific Coast League and at Las Vegas, a league and a home ballpark both deemed very hitter friendly. That .249/.313/.349 slash line isn’t great, and neither is the home run total of three. Owners should view Cecchini as little more than a bench piece on the New York Mets and temporary roadblock for top prospect Amed Rosario. If you were considering using a roster spot on Cecchini, do yourself a favor and stash Rosario instead who will could be up in the majors before too long.
Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) - 0% owned
Called up following the injury news of Juan Lagares, Nimmo, like Cecchini, was really struggling at Triple-A before his promotion. He was slashing just .223/.361/.378 with three homers and a 24.4 percent strikeout rate — an alarming rate for someone without much pop. Nimmo is not a top prospect, and really combines the lack of power of Winker with the strikeouts of Murphy and Chapman. He may receive an occasional start with Lagares out, but that doesn’t mean you should own him in any format.
Pitchers:
A.J. Cole (SP, WAS) - 2% owned
I’m not going to lie, in a way I was a bit shocked that Cole had the highest ownership rating of any pitcher on this list. That’s not to say that the other guys are studs, but at least two of them will receive starts while Cole has just been called up to serve as a long-reliever. With Shawn Kelley placed on the DL, the Washington Nationals promoted Cole to help the bullpen. But he is not expected to receive any starts, and will probably be back in the minors before too long. That 2 percent mark should probably be zero.
Luis Castillo (SP, CIN) - 0% owned
Castillo, on the other hand, will be making a spot start against the aforementioned Nationals on Friday. The decision to start the 24-year-old comes after veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo was placed on the DL after getting shelled (again) against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday. Castillo has been nothing short of dominant with Double-A Pensacola, posting a 2.58 ERA and 2.56 FIP in his first taste of pro action with the Reds. Most impressively, he has struck out 25.6 percent of opposing batters and walked just 4.1 percent of hitters. But the Nationals will pose a serious threat to the rookie right-hander, leaving him with little streaming appeal. And with the returns of starters like Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan and Anthony DeSclafani all on the horizon, this will likely be Castillo’s only start in the majors. He could be a solid own in dynasty leagues as he might start next season, but he has little-to-no value in redraft leagues.
Brandon Woodruff (SP, MIL) - 0% owned
Woodruff was promoted to make a start for the Milwaukee Brewers last week, but was immediately placed on the 10-day disabled list with a hamstring injury. Woodruff’s numbers aren’t initially all that impressive as his 4.12 ERA and 4.35 FIP are really somewhat pedestrian. But when you consider that he pitched in hitter-friendly Colorado in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, the numbers begin to look a lot better. He had struck out 22.6 percent and walked 7.2 percent of opposing hitters, so there is some upside to be had with owning Woodruff. He might be the best pitching prospect the Brewers have at this point given Josh Hader’s major control struggles, and as a result, Woodruff could be worth owning as a solid innings-eater for owners in 12+ team leagues once he comes back from his injury.
Ariel Hernandez (RP, CIN) - 0% owned
There is a decent chance Hernandez is the best relief pitcher any team has promoted this season. MLB Pipeline graded his fastball as a 75 and curveball as a 60, and he has been a serious strikeout machine in the minors with a 29.8 percent clip. The 15.3 percent walk rate is concerning, but his stuff is electric. Just read this article by Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan about Hernandez’s debut earlier this season. However, owners need to remember that no matter how dirty his stuff might be, he is not going to push Raisel Iglesias aside for saves this season, and still likely sits behind Michael Lorenzen and Drew Storen on the closer depth chart. He is fun to watch pitch, but leave him on the waivers.
Austin Maddox (RP, BOS) - 0% owned
Maddox was briefly promoted to the majors and appeared in two games before he was demoted again to the minors. He has better control than the aforementioned Hernandez, but he is not a real strikeout pitcher and certainly will not be unseating anyone for saves in the near future. And especially with him now heading back down to Pawtucket, there is no reason to even consider owning him right now.
