At this point in the year, all fantasy teams fall into one of three categories. There's the winner, the team that built an insurmountable lead in a rotisserie or points format or clinched a H2H playoff spot. If that is you, congratulations! Then there's the also-ran, the team that nothing went right for all season. If that is you, I'm sorry.

Then there's the fringe, the team that could still win if the last month goes especially well. If that is you, read on! Below I profile three names who I think could a tremendous asset for the rest of this year, with less than 30% ownership on FleaFlicker. They carry some risk, but fringe teams are not going to reach the promised land by playing it safe now. On to the names!

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The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

In a Champ or Chump first, Conforto is being profiled without being on the MLB roster. His .218/.297/.414 triple slash line doesn't look special, and 11 big flies aren't enough to change the equation. He looked promising last year with a .270/.335/.506 line and nine dingers in 194 PAs, but most fantasy owners (and the Mets) seem to have moved on. He's owned in only 17% of FleaFlicker leagues.

A large part of the problem is a 26% K%, a number that I frankly do not buy into at all. It was 20.1% a year ago, and his current SwStr% of 10% supports the latter far more than the former. He posted a 9% SwStr% last season, but the increase in whiff rate has occurred entirely outside of the strike zone (61.4% O-Contact% down to 58.7% this year). His Z-Contact% remains stable (87.2% to 87.7% this year). He is chasing a few more bad pitches, as his O-Swing% jumped from 24% to 28%, but 28% is still a strong showing. His 9.3% BB% is believable as a result.

His batting average should rise as the Ks dwindle, but that is not the only reason to expect it to go up. Conforto sports a BABIP of .261 in the majors this year, 40 points below the league average. One of the culprits is a low 18.3% LD%, a disappointment after a 22.6% rate last year. The league average is 21%, and Conforto has not proven that his baseline should be otherwise yet. Conforto's grounders have also disappointed with a .174 mark despite owning a reasonable batting average against the shift (.262), so there could be room for improvement there as well. Conforto's minor league history and brief MLB time last year suggest that he should be a .290-.300 BABIP guy, so it should regress in his favor over the final month.

Conforto's power, in terms of HR/FB, has regressed to 12.6% this year after sitting at 17% a year ago. This was predictable, but 12.6% still suggests plus power. Conforto has also hit an absurd number of fly balls this season, sporting a FB% of 45.5%. He's pulling a fair number of them too, 20.7% to be precise. If the Mets play him in September (he should be a September call up), a eight HR month is not out of the question with this profile. With only uninspiring alternatives such as Alejandro De Aza and Justin Ruggiano standing in his way, it says here that he sees the field.

For what it's worth, Conforto is absolutely raking at Triple-A (.423/.480/.748 with eight bombs in 123 PAs). Las Vegas is in the notoriously hitter friendly PCL, but those numbers still stand out. Conforto detractors may point to his dreadful MLB performance vs. LHP (.109/.160/.130) as a reason to stay away, but a sporadic 50 PA sample size is not enough to take as gospel.  I definitely want Conforto on my roster to close out the year.

Verdict: Champ

Jon Gray (SP, COL)

For years, fantasy owners have lived by one commandment: Thou shalt not roster Colorado pitchers. Gray's surface stats (8-6, 4.61 ERA) do nothing to challenge this axiom, but his underlying 3.66 xFIP and 25.5% K% might. It's risky, but Gray could have the upside to save your fantasy season if everything breaks right. That's more value than you can get out of most arms available in 74% of FleaFlicker leagues.

Gray's slider is the reason you want him in fantasy. Its 24.2% SwStr%, 50.1% chase rate, and .177/.198/.260 triple slash line against are all nothing short of spectacular. Better yet, Gray is using it more than he ever has before. Already a solid part of the repertoire with 19.2% usage last season, it is up to 26.9% this year. That is what fantasy owners want to see!

The slider's increased usage is part of a completely reworked pitch selection by Gray. He is also throwing fewer fastballs (63.3% to 56.3%) and changeups (17.1% to 7.7%) in favor of a brand new curve (9.1%) in addition to more sliders. The change seems to be benefiting from being thrown less often (9.6% SwStr% last year, 11.2% this), but the curve is underwhelming from a strikeout perspective (8.5% SwStr%, 17.6% chase rate). The curve has been pretty good after being put in play (.233/.258/.400), but its 35% FB% makes me question its long term viability at Coors Field. Neither fastball looks like anything too special just yet.

As a result, Gray is kind of a one pitch pitcher--but boy is it a good pitch! Gray's slider is so dominant that his current performance likely represents his floor, even with Coors in the equation. A slight K% increase can be expected based on all of the unqualified minor leaguers about to be called up, and it could skyrocket if the change or curve becomes a legitimate second weapon.

Traditional luck stats also suggest that Gray's ERA could improve. His 66.7% strand rate is below the league average of 72%, while his strikeout rate is high enough to support a plus mark. His .301 BABIP against and 13.4% HR/FB also seem high, though Coors Field is probably impacting both. Gray has a solid prospect pedigree and remains young enough to improve overnight, so he is worthy of an add if you need help in the pitching categories.

Verdict: Champ

Robbie Ray (SP, ARI)

What if I told you that there was another pitcher available on waivers in at least 70% of FleaFlicker leagues with a better K% than Gray. He also doesn't call Coors home, though it is in his division. His 7-12 record and 4.28 ERA don't look like much, but Robbie Ray's 3.30 xFIP and 28.3% K% should not be available on waivers this time of year.

Unlike Gray, Ray hasn't changed his pitch selection much at all. He is throwing more 2-seamers (9.4% to 15.6%) and less 4-seamers (62.6% to 56.1%), but PITCHf/x has a hard time differentiating the two. Instead, Ray's K% has surged thanks to a velocity uptick. His fastball has gained .7 mph to hit an average velocity of 94 so far this year, while his 2-seamer is up 1.3 mph to reach 93.8. Both have seen an increased SwStr% as a result, the 4-seamer up to 9% from 7.1% and the 2-seamer to 8.9% from 6.1%. Both numbers are quite strong for their respective pitch type.

They complement a strong slider that is almost the equal of Gray's. Its 19.2% SwStr% and 42.1% chase rate are enough to highlight any strikeout pitcher's arsenal, and its strong 62% GB% is also nice to see from an Arizona hurler. When opponents actually manage to hit it, its .195/.241/.331 triple slash line against is also pretty impressive. The pitch's only weakness is a 34.7% Zone%.

That is where the heaters come in. They both spend a lot of time in the zone despite their improved whiff rates, as the 4-seamer sports a Zone% of 56.4% while the 2-seamer checks in at 53.6%. Ideally, Ray could develop one more weapon to really keep hitters guessing. That weapon will not be the change he is currently throwing, as its 28.3% Zone% and 28.1% chase rate add up to a wasted pitch. If he refines another offering, Ray's balanced arsenal could lead to a higher upside than Gray's.

Ray has been the recipient of some rather unfortunate luck, as a 14.8% HR/FB is bad while a .354 BABIP against is horrid. Chase Field has something to do with the HR/FB, but the BABIP should regress moving forward. His 72.4% LOB% is league average, but could climb a tad higher with all of Ray's Ks. He might even be in line for more wins with the excellent AJ Pollock returning to the team. Grab him already!

Verdict: Champ

 

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