RADIO
Nick Mariano continues RotoBaller's Bold Prediction series, offering his thoughts for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
Kyle, Kyle, Kyle, what hell hath you wrought on our poor readers? Look at the Pandora’s Box that’s been opened. Now it’s time for my shenanigans to fly out.
Editor's note: Be sure to check out our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We recently launched this handy new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.
10 Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Yasmani Grandal finishes as a top-three catcher.
If he didn’t get plunked by a pitch on the shoulder last year then you’d be reading this thinking: “so what?” Well thanks to a horrible second half where he clearly could not swing the bat how he’s used to, his year-end stats look innocent enough and some are writing him off as a “streaky” hitter. His first half had him hit .282 with 14 HRs and 36 RBIs in 257 PAs, and if he can post a similar line with a full season then a top-three finish should result. Not necessarily even at that torrid pace, but just in the same vein over two halves. Don't write off his second half as "going cold", and invest.
2. Ryan Zimmerman racks up 550 PAs this year en route to a top-25 CI finish.
I’m going to keep myself to one overly-optimistic health related prediction, and instead of Jacoby Ellsbury or something, it’s going to be Zimmerman. Plantar fasciitis is a #%&*$ and can be a continued nuisance, but the strained oblique that cost him the rest of his season in September won’t follow him around. When he returned from the foot injury in August he actually had his strongest month, hitting seven homers with 28 RBIs. You don’t have to pay for “sustained health upside Zimmerman” anymore, and if he stays healthy and his BABIP regresses to his norm of ~.315 (it was .268 last year) then you’re looking at a 25 home run season with a .280 average.
3. Francisco Rodriguez finishes as a top-eight RP.
You might not be aware of how well K-Rod pitched last year, but he pretty much had a vintage season amidst the Milwaukee “will they trade him” drama. Now he gets to pitch for the Tigers, who will certainly be pushing for contention, and anchors the bullpen coming off of a year where his peripherals went down to 2006 levels. His 2.91 FIP/2.63 xFIP/2.42 SIERA back the 2.21 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, he still strikes out more than a batter per inning (62 in 57 IP last year), and in 2015 he made massive improvements with locating. His first-strike rate jumped from 59.0% to 63.4%, and his walk rate went from 6.7% to 5.1%. Doing this while keeping up plus strikeout stuff? While increasing his ground ball rate and soft contact rate? Yes please, being 34 years old doesn’t scare me away in the face of this.
4. Patrick Corbin finishes as a top-25 SP.
I loved seeing him come back from Tommy John surgery and look good, locating his pitches with relative ease compared to most others who are working back from TJS. His walk rate was actually the lowest it had ever been in his career, while the strikeouts took a step forward. Well that’s pretty neat. He’ll only be 26 this year, and while he isn’t going to be an ace, Corbin is the kind of guy who could post a line similar to Michael Wacha’s 2015 (albeit with a few less wins). If you play in leagues with QS, then all the nicer for you who own Corbin.
5. Kyle Hendricks finishes as a top-30 SP.
Hendricks’ short 2014 had people curious, going 7-2 in 80.1 IP with a 2.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However he only struck out 47 in those 80.1 innings, and the peripherals pointed to higher ratios (3.92 xFIP, 4.02 SIERA). Last year saw him strike out 167 in 180 innings, so that calms that. His 3.95 ERA has some people shying away though, but his FIP/xFIP/SIERA was 3.36/3.25/3.37. He brought his ground-ball rate above 50% (at 51.3%), throwing his 88 MPH “fastball” (read: sinker) most of the time, alongside an 80 MPH changeup, nice 77 MPH curve, and a rarely used cutter. If he can hit roughly 200 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP alongside 180 Ks, well that’ll play, and you know the Cubbies will do their best to supply the Ws.
6. Vincent Velasquez finishes as a top-50 SP.
Part of the Ken Giles haul that came back to Philadelphia, Velasquez has a mid-90s fastball with life on it that he complements with a curveball, slider, and changeup. He needs to refine the secondary pitches, but he used the curveball and slider well last year. He has that “over a strikeout per inning” stuff that we love to see, and if he can locate his pitches well this year to the point where he can bring down the fly balls a bit (especially in Citizen’s Bank Park), then we could be looking at a very fun year for Velasquez.
The major hurdle is playing time, as the rotation is currently Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Charlie Morton, Jeremy Hellickson, and either Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, or Adam Morgan. Velasquez is easily the most talented of that last bunch (and Hellickson…) but they may opt to give him a little time in the minors first. I’ll bake in that possibility here, but he’s got great stuff and we should all be so lucky as to witness him.
7. Ian Desmond is the SS2 this year, as Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and Xander Bogaerts all disappoint.
Ian Desmond gets the fresh start that he so desperately needed, and it just so happens to come in a pretty neat place to hit in Texas. Not only does he get a fresh start team-wise, but he doesn’t have to worry about playing shortstop (where errors plagued him like a rat on a trade galley in the 1300s). Yes, learning a new position in the outfield can offer up its own hurdles, but Desmond is only 30 this year and his awful 2015 still saw him hit 19 homers and steal 13 bases. If the steals aren’t coming back then that really digs at this, but the counting stats should improve against last year (69 runs and 62 RBIs). For now, it appears Desmond should bat sixth, but Texas’ lineup is well-rounded and he could play his way up with success/injury to others. If he goes 75/25/75/16/.245, I think this is good enough for #2 in the shortstop department.
8. Jean Segura and Starlin Castro finish as the 11th and 12th best SS-eligible players.
While my general disdain for the top shortstop options speaks to my previous prediction, my love for the rest of the pack relates to this one. Segura just celebrated his 26th birthday on St. Paddy’s Day, and while he’ll never be the 12 HR/44 SB/.294 BA guy we saw in 2013, he does have room to be much better than 2014 or 2015. Much of it falls on Segura’s own eye, with his lousy 2.2 BB% leading to a horrid .281 OBP, as well as swing selection. He is doing quite well in Spring Training for Arizona though, and if he wins a spot atop the Diamondbacks lineup then he could touch 100 runs alongside 30 steals.
As far as Starlin Castro goes, if he keeps his head in the game and that front foot steady in the batter’s box, then he could sniff a .300s batting average again, as well as 15-18 homers with 10 steals if does indeed bat at the bottom of the order ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. He turns 26 on March 24th for what it’s worth, there’s clearly a connection here.
9. Kevin Pillar is on an insane amount of championship teams.
If you can be a five category player, then your services will be demanded. Last year Pillar showed that skillset, scoring 76 runs and hitting 12 homers with 56 RBIs while stealing 25 bases with a .278 average. He even plays on the strongest offense in the league! Why isn’t he getting more attention? Okay yeah, he doesn’t walk that much, but unless your league heavily weighs OBP then I kindly ask you to get out of here with that. He's currently being drafted as the 40th OF according to NFBC ADP, behind Billy Burns, which leaves a lot of room for profit.
Pillar is battling with Michael Saunders for leadoff duties in Toronto, but he looks to be the frontrunner (plus Saunders is a ticking time bomb for injuries). Last year’s numbers mostly came from Pillar batting seventh or eighth (519 PAs between the two, he had 628 in all), so if he gets the leadoff job then those counting stats should shoot up. It ain’t no lie baby, buy, buy, buy.
10. Jose Quintana finally wins 10 games! 15 to be exact.
You might roll your eyes at this, but this is supremely bold! In the last three years Jose Quintana has won exactly nine games. This year he makes the leap. He enters his age-27 season possessing decent strikeout stuff (good for 175 Ks in 200 IP) and a low-mid 3s ERA. The most encouraging part was seeing his first-strike rate, swinging-strike rate, and walk rate all be career highs. The WHIP will never be spectacular, but the White Sox having an improved defense this year does help his chances all around as well. Draft him, and then confidently rock the Q on your chest like Doug Funnie as Quailman.
MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
