Where Should You Draft WR Golden Tate in 2015?

Labeled as a strong breakout candidate prior to the 2014 fantasy football season, Golden Tate did not disappoint. The 26-year-old former Seahawk flourished in his first season with the Detroit Lions, amassing 1331 receiving yards and 4 TD while adding another 30 yards on the ground. Those numbers were good enough to make him the 13th highest scoring fantasy wideout in standard and 11th in PPR, not bad for a player with a 2014 average draft position in the mid-90's.

Heading into 2015 now, Tate's outlook has both promising bright spots and foreboding dark spots.

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Statistically speaking, Tate was among the best at his position in 2014. In fact, the young wideout’s 720 YAC last year was the best mark among all wide receivers, exactly 40 more than second place Demarius Thomas and nearly 300 more than Dez Bryant, both of which were top-5 WR in 2014. While that number alone is impressive, it also speaks volumes as to the way Tate was utilized in Jim Caldwell’s scheme. Less than 20% of Tate's 143 targets were deep balls, the fifth lowest mark in the league, and that short distance lead to an impressive catch rate of 69.2%. Bryant only managed a catch rate of 64.7%, and Thomas a rate of 60.4%.

As far as those numbers pertain to Tate's 2015 outlook, they show a good amount of promise. Tate doesn't live and die by the deep ball like the DeSean Jacksons and Martavis Bryants of the NFL. He's a possession receiver, an underneath route runner capable of shaking defenders with his quickness, and possession receivers all tend to share one common trait in the NFL—consistency. They don't erupt for 20 fantasy points one week and then go without a catch the next. They're consistent, reliable, and as safe a bet as any for production, as was Tate in 2014.

Although the 26-year-old had a few duds, Tate had 7 or more receptions in 8 games last year, and his five games with more than 100 receiving yards outnumbered the four games in which he was held to fewer than five receptions. He even posted back-to-back 150+ yard outings between weeks 7 and 8, hauling in 28 total passes over that span. All of these are indicators of the consistency that can be expected of Tate this coming year along with the potential for offensive explosion, and coupling them with another year of experience in Caldwell’s offensive scheme makes Tate seem like a rock solid WR2 in 2015.

However, there’s reason to call that a lofty expectation.

Some point to Calvin Johnson’s health woes when talking of Tate’s success in 2014, claiming the absence of one of the game’s greatest to take away coverage made Tate’s numbers even that much more impressive. That may be true in many ways, but a closer look at the statistics shows a ominous picture.

While Tate did perform incredibly well when Johnson wasn’t on the field—50 catches for 499 yards in the five weeks Johnson was hobbled or out—Megatron’s presence when healthy was much more a detriment to Tate’s numbers than it was a boon. In fact, the Lions’ slot/outside hybrid never eclipsed 100 yards while Johnson was a factor in the passing game, and only caught 1 TD. He also tapered off when fantasy owners needed it most at the end of the season, recording only 195 receiving yards in four December games. Megatron had 353 yards over that span.

Beyond the stark contrast in performance with Johnson on and off the field, Tate struggled to find the end zone in 2014, doing so on only 4 of his 99 receptions. Touchdown's are too valuable a source of points in fantasy making that number concerning in and of itself, and a number unlikely to change as long as Tate continues his current role in the passing game. If the former Seahawk manages to find the end-zone more than five times in 2015, it will be a surprising statistic.

Overall, Tate was one of the more intriguing prospects heading into 2014 and remains the same now heading into 2015. He showed huge potential as one of the league’s best possession receivers during spurts of last season, but faltered when it mattered most and played a clear second fiddle to Johnson when Johnson was healthy. What that means for 2015 is therefore hard to predict, as another year in Caldwell’s scheme will surely benefit both Tate and Johnson, but a healthy Megatron could prove devastating for the 26-year-old’s stat line in the end.

That said, there are still plenty of passes to go around with Matthew Stafford under center and Tate remains a strong WR3 with the potential for WR2 or maybe even WR1 status if Johnson once again misses time. His ESPN ADP of 62 puts him 24^th among receivers, and is perfectly reasonable for one of the most valuable WR handcuffs in the league.

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