NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Novig (Week 6)

October 15, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 6 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

The Lions are on a bye this week, so which terrible defenses can we attack for player props instead? Don't worry, I have some ideas! There is no shortage of good matchups in Week 6, so let's see which low numbers we can attack for overs, shall we?

If you're new here, I'd like to introduce you to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 6 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

NFL Passing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Jordan Love OVER 269.5 passing yards (51%)

This is setting up to be another ceiling spot for Love in Week 6. He's fresh off a 367-yard day against the Bears defense and now faces a Dallas secondary that ranks dead last in DVOA pass defense.

Everything is coming up Jordan Love today ‼️

@CHIvsGB on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/yzQQJ2IQ98

— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2026

This game has two things we love for going over on props: a tight spread (Packers -1.5) and a high total (53). With the Packers struggling to run the football all year, I expect Love to air it out often and look for his two emerging young receivers, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Both guys are deep-ball threats and receivers who can win their matchups either outside or in the slot.

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

James Cook III OVER 92.5 rushing yards (51%)

Make sure you check out my running back matchups article every week on Saturdays. I have my own matchup model that I've developed over the last several seasons, and Cook's matchup against the Raiders is at the top of the list.

While I typically don't bet on player props that are among the highest at their position, I think Cook's spot is too good to fade. He's gone well over 100 yards in three of Buffalo's first five games, and should continue to be the workhorse in this backfield as long as he stops the fumbling!

Joe Brady makes it clear James Cook is still going to get his carries despite fumbles: “I don’t want you to think I’m going to stop giving James Cook the ball.”

Added: “I don’t want James running any more timid.. He’s playing outstanding.. Idk if anyone is running ball better.” https://t.co/zXrqsiNnN2

— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) October 14, 2026

Obviously the fumbling issues are a real concern for Cook, but I don't think he's in the doghouse just yet, since the Bills pulled out that game against the Rams last week despite him coughing it up twice. This offensive line is going to punish the Raiders' front seven, a unit that allowed 177 yards rushing to Kenneth Walker III just a few weeks ago.

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NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Bhayshul Tuten OVER 9.5 yards receiving (48%)

Running back receiving props are often a cheat code, and I am always on the lookout for some low numbers that we can exploit. Such is the case with this Tuten prop, as the second-year back has at least 17 yards receiving in four of five games this season.

Tuten's prop is low because he's only averaging two targets per game. But he's caught all but one target and has the type of burst in space that we are looking for here. There's always a risk of getting tackled in the backfield if defenses read a screen and come flying up on a dump-off, but Tuten can clear this number with even one short catch and run.

Wan'Dale Robinson OVER 39.5 yards receiving (49%)

The Titans offense is really, really bad...so it's tough having any faith in Cam Ward and company. However, it's also one reason why we're getting a very good slot receiver in an excellent matchup at such a low number, too.

Wan'Dale Robinson moves the Titans a little bit closer 🙌

TENvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/aYwqf39rFq

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

Robinson is coming off 6-53 against the Texans and has a healthy 20% target share on the season. He's going up against an Indy team that allowed Germie Bernard to 6-80 last week out of the slot (that was supposed to be Roman Wilson!). I expect the Titans to play from behind and have to throw to move the chains, which is what Robinson does. He racks up targets on short throws and then can pile up yardage after the catch.

Isaiah Likely OVER 5.5 receptions (47%)

It felt good having Likely in DFS lineups last week, while also having him on fantasy rosters and betting his receiving props. He came through in a big way, with 11 catches for 94 yards and two touchdowns.

That was his third game this season with at least 10 targets. The Giants are leaning on him heavily in the short passing game in the absence of a downfield attack. He's playing far more slot receiver than inline tight end with his hand on the ground, and he is big and fast enough to expose matchups against linebackers and slot corners.

It's now 18 catches on 25 targets over the last two weeks. I am buying into that pattern and smashing the button on this bet at plus money.

Tyler Higbee OVER 32.5 yards receiving (53%)

Higbee has now posted three really good games in a row since Terrance Ferguson went down with an injury. He's one of three different tight ends being used by the Rams, but he's the guy getting all the targets and catches. He's been sailing way over this number recently, posting receiving totals of 62, 67, and 83 the last three weeks.

The Cardinals' pass defense is pretty gross, ranking 30th in the league (DVOA). The Rams are implied for a massive 32 points, and I think they'll move the ball at will against this group. It's a fairly low bar here, and Higbee is a very good player whose role in this offense is solidifying.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown (37%)

There's no use betting on Derrick Henry to score at massive odds every week, so let's give Flowers a shot instead. He has two touchdown catches across four games and leads the team with a 27.8% red zone target rate.

Huntley to Flowers! @Ravens looking to tie 👀

@BALvsATL on NBC/Peacock
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/091z2ihtno

— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2026

The Browns are allowing 1.4 receiving touchdowns to the WR position this season so far, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. The Ravens are going to score some points this week, and I like Flowers's chances of finding paydirt. He's really good and has a plus matchup against a pretty bad Cleveland secondary.

Good luck if you're tailing these props this week. Thanks for reading. Let's crush!

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