Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 5 - Aaron Jones Sr., Jaylen Warren, more

October 10, 2026

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 5 of 2026 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

The Week 5 NFL DFS main slate is shaping up to be a fun one. We have another international game (Philly vs. Jax) and two teams on byes (KC and Carolina) that make this a smaller slate than usual, so we are going to see some condensed rostership at the running back position.

Jahmyr Gibbs is going to be mega-chalk, and you can see in my data that he rates well. But there's no reason for me to tout him here, as half the field (or more) are going to slam him into their lineup because they're terrified at the idea of being without him if he goes for 30 fantasy points in a game with a 54.5-point total. Yes, play Gibbs! Especially in cash games and single-entry contests, you don't need me to tell you that!

I'll be focusing my analysis on a quartet of backs in the mid-tier of pricing on both sites. Some will be more popular than others, but I'll address that and discuss whether they're worthy of their projected rostership. Also, don't forget this analysis and the data I collect can be applied to prop betting, too! Without further ado, here are my top four matchups for Week 5.

Week 5 Running Back Matchups

Back for Week 5, these are my "Thunder Dan Matchup Grades," which incorporate data from both PFF and the DVOA ratings found at FTN. We have FOUR weeks of data now, and larger sample sizes always help our data become more reliable and predictable over time.

Remember, we are not evaluating the backs' elusiveness, explosiveness, or ability to break tackles. We are looking at the quality of their blockers, their offensive schemes, projected role and usage, quality of their opponent, and then finally taking an educated guess on the projected game script for each back this week.

Chase Brown ($6,900 DK, $8,000 FD) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Brown's price on FanDuel may seem high, but it's still 13% of your salary cap over there, as it is on DraftKings (where you have 10k less to work with in salary). The real reason why Brown is a better play on DraftKings (pretty much every week) is the full PPR scoring.

Last week, Brown managed only 10 yards rushing on nine carries, but caught 11 passes for 71 yards as a receiver. That was good for 13.6 FD points, but on DK it was 19.1 points, which represented a season-high for Brown.

There's still some uncertainty regarding the Cincy offense going into their matchup with the lowly Dolphins, as both Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase are listed as questionable. My best guess is that Higgins will sit and Chase will play, as the latter cleared concussion protocol. Both practiced fully on Friday, so there is a chance they both could play, and that would make me want to lower my exposure to Brown (but so will the field).

No Higgins and/or Chase should lead to some more receiving work for Brown this week, and frankly that's the aspect of this matchup that pops the most when we dig into it. The Dolphins have a respectable rank of 13th vs. the run (rush DVOA), but have also allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

What gives? Well, they've allowed six total touchdowns to opposing backs, and three of those came through the air. Opposing RB1s are averaging four catches for 31 yards per contest and 0.75 receiving touchdowns, which explains why Miami ranks second-worst vs. running backs as receivers in positional DVOA.

So while Brown has only the 14th-best rating in my model, this is still a pretty darn good spot. He's locked into a high-usage role on a team that is a touchdown favorite and implied for 25 points on Sunday. He hasn't been efficient as a runner this year yet, but that could change with a positive game script this week and aided by the fact that Miami is sixth-worst in yards allowed before contact.

Jaylen Warren ($6,700 DK, $6,700 FD)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Warren presents a really compelling opportunity to pivot off some more popular, similarly priced backs this week. We are still waiting to hear if his backfield mate, Rico Dowdle, suits up, and that uncertainty has led to a very low rostership projection for Warren tomorrow.

I actually hope that Dowdle is ruled in, because I don't want the field flocking to Warren! Have you guys watched this dude play the last 3-4 seasons? I know I'm supposed to stick to the matchups here, but Jaylen Warren is objectively a VERY GOOD running back and multi-talented, as he's very dangerous as both a runner and receiver.

Jaylen Warren takes the pitch and picks up 24

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Everyone is going to point to the splits with Rico (75 scrimmage yards per game) and without (151 scrimmage yards per game), but the matchups also had a lot to do with that, as Pittsburgh faced a solid Atlanta run defense in Week 1 and a respectable unit in New England in Week 2.

As much as it pains me to admit it, the Steelers offense has looked like a functional offense the last two weeks, and Warren is the engine that has been driving it. I don't see Dowdle coming back and doing anything more than working in for 25-30% of the touches, with Warren holding onto the high-value touches (goal line and receiving work).

Indianapolis, meanwhile, is fifth-worst in EPA (expected points added) per rush attempt this season. They were steamrolled by Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker III the first two weeks of the season and then got a reprieve the last two weeks, facing two terrible run-blocking units in Houston and Washington.

The Steelers enter Week 5 with the best run-blocking grade in the NFL. Zach Frazier is an excellent run-blocking center, Mason McCormick is excelling at left guard (both rated as the fourth-best run-blockers at their position), and Troy Fautanu is a road-grader at left tackle. Rookie Max Iheanachor has been a pleasant surprise at right tackle, too.

Pittsburgh invested early-round draft capital on Frazier, Fautanu, and Iheanachor, and it's working out beautifully, as they're back to running the football effectively. That's something they simply have to do with Aaron Rodgers being pretty limited as to what he can do at this stage of his career.

Last note here is that the Colts rank eighth worst vs. pass-catching backs (DVOA), and I expect the Steelers to continue to feed Warren targets in the flat where he can do some serious damage.

Aaron Jones Sr. ($6,500 DK, $6,200 FD)

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Jones is looking like a very popular play on Sunday, but his price (especially on FD) is very attractive, and we need salary relief on this slate if we're going to cram in Gibbs, McBride, or other high-priced pieces. He's my top-rated matchup, so I feel compelled to dig into the reasons why.

There is some skepticism as to how good this Minnesota offense really is despite their 4-0 record. They have had, admittedly, a pretty soft schedule so far as they've faced the Packers, Bucs, and Dolphins as well as the Bears (in bad weather with Caleb Williams getting hurt mid-game).

While their run-blocking hasn't rated all that highly, Jones has still had three straight solid performances since taking over the majority of the touches in Week 2. Most notably, the Vikings have gotten him involved as a receiver the last two weeks, as he's gone 5-34 and 4-34 as a receiver.

Aaron Jones gives the Vikings the lead!

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The other question here is, "Just how bad is the Saints' rush defense?" I've seen a few suggest that they've just been the victim of some really tough matchups so far, having faced Gibbs, Henry, Ashton Jeanty, and Bijan Robinson in their first four games.

That's certainly true, and perhaps they are a bit better than their DVOA rush rank (32nd - dead last). But maybe not.

The Saints rank third-worst in explosive rush rate and last in EPA per rush attempt. Gibbs and Bijan can make teams look silly, and they absolutely gouged this Saints defense. But Brian Robinson Jr. went 14-62-3 against this team last week, too, while Mike Washington Jr. added 5-54-1 in Week 3.

New Orleans is allowing the most adjusted line yards (5.2), which tells us that the holes are there and it's NOT just a product of the opposing backs being really good. This is absolutely a matchup that Jones can thrive in, and he doesn't need to go full Bijan to be worth his salary.

D'Andre Swift ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD)

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

My one wish was for Kyle Monangai to be a late scratch, or to dress but not play very much, as he's nursing a painful turf toe injury and trying to play through it.

But instead, he's already been ruled out. Swift is a full go, and now he's probably going to be second in rostership behind Gibbs. It certainly doesn't help that his DK price is stupidly low after Monangai outperformed him last week.

But that's okay; it doesn't mean we aren't going to roster him in a great spot. We most certainly are going to deploy him in cash games now as he's the lead back for the Bears in a "smash spot" (oh man, I really typed that; it feels gross) against the 31st-ranked rush DVOA defense of Green Bay.

Green Bay has really only given up one big game to opposing backs this year, but it was an embarrassing performance on a Thursday night as they allowed Bijan Robinson to go for 29-194 and two touchdowns. They also haven't faced an offensive line that is as good as Chicago's, as the Bears come in with the second-best run-blocking grade in the NFL.

Chicago wants to run the football down your throat. It's becoming their identity under Ben Johnson, and you really can't argue with the results either. With Tyson Bagent under center again this week, I expect another run-heavy approach. Last week, Swift and Monangai combined for 45 rushing attempts as the Bears possessed the ball for 42 minutes of regulation.

There's more bad news (for Packers fans), but I suppose good news for Swift's fantasy managers. The Packers are dead last in DVOA vs. backs as receivers. The Falcons didn't need to feature Bijan as a receiver (just 2-19) in that Week 3 game; they ran it right at Green Bay all night. But Breece Hall went 5-63 as a receiver in Week 2, breaking off a 43-yard reception.

Swift is dangerous in space, too. So expect him to be used between the tackles and as a pass-catcher in this one, and don't be surprised if he's one of the highest-scoring backs on the slate.

Good luck, everyone - and thanks for reading.

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