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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/22/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! I was able to nail the longshot bet that helped pay for all the others in Sunday's article, which was nice, but it's time to get a few more going here. We only have a few home run articles left this year, so we have to make the most of them!
I've got four righties on deck for y'all, including another longshot bet. If you are looking for more, make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout prop picks.
Below are my favorite four home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/22/2026)
Nolan Arenado OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+426, NoVig)
Nolan Arenado is heating up at the right time. He has five home runs in his last 10 games, four of those happen to be against LHP too. That bodes well for us today, as the Diamondbacks travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies at Coors Field. Even better, we have Kyle Freeland on the mound for us to take advantage of. Freeland has a 1.9 HR/9 at home this season, but righties have hit him extremely hard.
24 of his 27 home runs this year have come by a RHH; they are hitting him to the tune of a .591 SLG, .283 ISO, 13.5% Barrel%, and a 47.5% HardHit%. Those are some of the worst numbers on the entire slate! Arenado has hit Freeland well in his career too; he has five hits in 10 ABs, unfortunately none for a home run, but he sees the ball well against him.
This season, Arenado has hit lefties as well as anyone on the team; he leads the team with 10 home runs against lefties, tied with Ketel Marte. He is also sporting a .880 OPS, .279 ISO, 9.3% Barrel%, and a 38.3% HardHit%. Marte makes for an elite play as well, but with Arenado being red-hot at the plate right now, I'm gonna ride with him.
Nolan Arenado crushes a GRAND SLAM ‼️
The @Dbacks take the lead! pic.twitter.com/8By3gdx1zD
— MLB (@MLB) September 20, 2026
Jake Burger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400, NoVig)
I'm sure you guys are going to be tired of hearing about me going against Sean Manaea, but he continues to give up home runs; he gave up two in his last outing. He's given up 23 on the season, 18 of which have come against RHH. They continue to hit him for a .522 SLG, .245 ISO, 13.7% Barrel%, and a 42.8% HardHit%. Lucky for us, the Rangers have a lot to play for; they are getting closer to locking in an AL West division win. They also have a few righties they grade out nicely here.
I'm going to roll with Jake Burger, though; he has been crushing lefties recently and leads the team with a 96.7 mph average exit velocity across the last 10 games against LHP. That is 5.7 mph faster than his season average. He also has three home runs in that time as well. Going to show he is seeing the ball extremely well against lefties at the moment. This season he is sporting a .932 OPS, .310 ISO, 22.1% Barrel%, and a 49% HardHit%.
Burger has hit Manaea's pitch mix quite well, outside of the Sweeper, but that's more so because he just hasn't seen it all that much this year. On top of all of that, Burger has already hit Manaea for two home runs in his career. Overall, this is one of the best plays on the slate.
