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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/19/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Welcome to the penultimate Saturday in the MLB regular season! With just over a week left of games, we've only got so many more opportunities to cash in on home run bets. And with the last week always being a bit of a question mark in terms of playing time and competitiveness, we need to make our mark today.
In this article, I'll target four of my favorite home run bets. You know I love my Same Game Parlay energy, so I've got one more for you that we're hoping will hit. If you are looking for more, make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout prop picks.
Below are my favorite four home run props from MLB games on Saturday, September 19, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/19/2026)
Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425, Bet365)
Let's start with one of the hottest hitters over the past week. Cruz has been magnificent at the plate in September, hitting seven homers this month. Now he gets to face Cubs' starter Matthew Boyd, who has had his issues this season.
Elly De La Cruz two-run homer makes it 6-3 Reds! pic.twitter.com/tvP4iQ6lk8
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 6, 2026
But let's start with Cruz, as he's the main reason to make this bet. He's getting a matchup against a lefty, which has been the better half of the plate for him to be on when it comes to hitting the long ball. He's hit ten of his 27 homers against lefties in just 176 PAs. He's hit 17 against righties, but that's been over a span of 420 PAs.
Cruz is simply able to barrel up lefties better, and the results have been more fruitful. He's got a 19.3% barrel rate against lefties, which is a fantastic number to target.
Boyd has settled down a bit since the day Joshua Baez took him deep three times, but that's not going to scare me given the current form Cruz is in. Boyd generally attacks righties with a four-seamer/changeup combo. The Reds' switch-hitter has mashed both of those off lefties this season, so we should get some solid chances for La Cocoa to go deep.
I've got another pick from this game that I like, but let's head west to San Diego first.
Jackson Merrill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+525, Hard Rock Bet)
When you're thinking about the Padres, you're probably expecting a guy like Fernando Tatis Jr. to steal the headlines. And that's fair! But don't sleep on Merrill. The Padres' center fielder has been hitting the ball incredibly well over the past couple of weeks and now gets a matchup against Eury Perez, who's been getting barrelled.
Merrill Mash 😤
Jackson Merrill sends this ball a long, long way! pic.twitter.com/G6etDNtWmi
— MLB (@MLB) September 19, 2026
Part of the reason that I like Merrill today is that I think he's been getting a bit unlucky when it comes to homers. Over the last 14 days, he's posting a 65.2% hard-hit rate to go along with a 19.6% barrel rate. That's only added up to three homers. And with a low walk rate and strikeout rate, it feels like that number could be a bit higher.
So let's bank on some positive regression here. Meanwhile, Perez has struggled as of late. Over the last 30 days, he's allowed a 14.3% barrel rate, the highest on the Marlins in that span. Part of that is him allowing a 45.2% fly-ball rate. The hard-hit rate isn't terribly high, but when hitters are getting it in the air, they're generally doing damage against Perez.
So let's back Merrill here. Perez usually attacks lefties with four-seamers, followed by a trio of sinkers, sliders, and changeups. The four-seamer is the most homer-prone pitch, which Merrill has hit eight homers against this season. The slider is the next pitch he crushes the most, totaling seven homers off sliders this season.
Let's hope Perez leaves one up and we get some positive regression off the barrel of Merrill's bat. Now onto our next lefty for our third bet.
