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Corbin identifies five fantasy football value picks with upside for 2026 drafts. His top later-round fantasy football sleepers and league winners for best ball.
Best ball leagues have drafters picking long before training camp and the NFL preseason. Everyone loves drafting and then watching how the team shakes out. In the past, I examined the historical data for Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) formats. The data uncovers where drafters scooped up potential values to win best ball leagues.
Using historical data and win rates by position helped narrow the player pool to five potential best ball value selections in FFPC leagues. A reminder that FFPC leagues give 1.0 points per reception for all pass-catchers, with 1.5 for tight ends. These players will likely also be valuable in redraft formats, though they might be better in best ball because of their spike-week potential.
Per usual, we'll use a data-focused approach to identify five value picks in FFPC best ball leagues. Why do we like them? What's their path to fantasy relevance in best ball leagues?
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Tre Tucker, WR, Raiders
FFPC ADP: 169.3, WR59
There have been discussions about the Raiders using heavy personnel this season under Klint Kubiak. Thankfully, the Raiders have two quality tight ends while already deploying 12 personnel at the fourth-highest rate. Under Kubiak, the Seahawks ranked eighth in 12 personnel usage, though Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer are arguably better than Seattle's options.
Tucker ran a route in 12 personnel 95.3% of the time. He garnered an 18% target rate with a 35.8% air yards share and a 25.2% first-read target share in 12 personnel. Among their primary pass-catchers, Tucker had more air yards yet trailed Bowers in target rate and first-read target share while using 12 personnel.
With Kubiak as Seahawks offensive coordinator, they ranked eighth in EPA per pass attempt while using play action at the 10th-highest rate. The Raiders were 28th in EPA per pass attempt while using play action at the 14th-highest rate.
Mayer (33%), Bowers (30%), and Tucker (28%) led the team in target rate when using play action. Jakobi Meyers (28%) tied with Tucker, but this includes Meyers' full season with the Raiders and Jaguars.
Furthermore, Tucker led the team in Average Separation Score overall against man coverage (0.106) and zone (0.037). The Raiders signed Jalen Nailor to a three-year, $35 million deal. He has some sleeper appeal, though the Vikings deployed him out of the slot on 60.6% of his routes. Most likely, Nailor will compete for reps with Dont'e Thornton Jr. and Jack Bech, though both Year 2 wide receivers profile as outside receivers.
Summary
After Bowers and Ashton Jeanty go in the first round, Tucker goes in the 13th or 14th round as the next Raiders player drafted. Tucker and rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza have a nearly identical ADP. Priced as a WR5 or WR6, Tucker should provide WR3 value in an offense that should be more efficient on play-action plays where he thrives.
Jaydon Blue, RB, Cowboys
FFPC ADP: 181.8, RB58
Blue's rookie season journey was interesting. He dealt with blisters from stylish shoes early in his rookie season to being a healthy scratch several times. Blue finally teased us in Week 18 with Javonte Williams injured. He handled 60% of the snaps, 53% of the team's rush attempts, and had zero targets in Week 18.
There has been positive coachspeak about Blue learning from Year 1 heading into Year 2. Since the Cowboys re-signed Williams to a three-year deal ($24 million) and didn't draft any running backs, most expect the backfield to look the same. Williams handled an RB1 workload, ranking sixth in expected fantasy points per game (EP/G) via a career-best 303 opportunities (rushes and targets).
When looking for sleepers, we want to identify players with skill differences. The Cowboys ranked 18th in explosive rush percentage (4.5%), fifth in rushing success rate, and 29th in missed tackle rate (11%). Sneakily, Williams ranked 18th in explosive rush rate (5.2%) while ranking 10th in rushing success rate and 43rd in missed tackles forced (12%) among 65 qualified rushers with 50 or more carries.
As a prospect, Blue had an above-average rate of missed tackles (27.4%) and nearly 40% (39.6) of his rush attempts going for 15+ yards. At 196 pounds, Blue's 4.38 40-yard dash led to a 72nd-percentile speed score. Blue likely won't handle a heavy workload, but he profiles as an explosive running back who can play on 60% of the snaps if Williams misses time.
Summary
Williams has dealt with injuries throughout his career and earned the opportunity to hold down the Cowboys' RB1 role. If Blue hadn't been a healthy scratch in Year 1, his outlook could be more favorable heading into Year 2. Blue has contingent upside if Williams misses time, with the chance to show off his explosiveness as a rusher and receiver. Target Blue as a late-round running back in a Zero RB build or for upside.
Kaytron Allen, RB, Commanders
FFPC ADP: 192.3, RB63
The Commanders were one of the teams with a third running back drafted in FFPC leagues who helped teams win. That was Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Targeting Allen is a bet on something like last season, with Croskey-Merritt as a player with talent who could find his way into backfield opportunities.
Allen arguably outplayed teammate Nicholas Singleton from a raw production standpoint, though Singleton had a more well-rounded profile as a pass-catcher. Allen ranked sixth in yards before contact (2.43), fifth in yards after contact (3.77), and second in missed tackle rate among the 2025 rookie running back prospects.
When we're looking at running back advanced stats for fantasy purposes, we want to find rushers who can generate yards before contact, yards after contact, and force missed tackles beyond their receiving opportunities. The issue with targeting a highly drafted Commanders running back involves how often Jayden Daniels steals rushing attempts.
This is the case in other backfields with rushing quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Jaxson Dart, and more. Last season, Daniels soaked up 29% of the team's rush attempts with Marcus Mariota taking on 16% when he started. After Austin Ekeler was injured in Week 2, Croskey-Merritt (37%) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (29%) split the backfield.
If a running back handles only 30-40% of the team's rush attempts, they need to be efficient and score touchdowns. Or it turns ugly in guessing which running back to start in a given week based on their limited usage. For context, Saquon Barkley (61%), Derrick Henry (61%), and James Cook III (56%) handle over 50% of their team's rush attempts.
Meanwhile, Cook and Henry rank in the top three in fantasy points over expectation per game (FPOE/G). That means they're efficient when scoring fantasy points while handling over 50% of the team's rush attempts, unlike the Commanders backfield.
That said, Allen could handle 30-40% of the Commanders backfield if Croskey-Merritt or Rachaad White misses time or struggles.
Summary
The Commanders ranked fifth in neutral script rush rate and ninth in pace (28.4 seconds per snap). They wildly used no-huddle in neutral scripts 61% of the time last season, similar to 2024 (62%). With Kliff Kingsbury gone, David Blough has been promoted to offensive coordinator after being the assistant quarterbacks coach for the previous two seasons. Blough has been talking about moving Daniels more under center dating back to last season.
The Commanders were last in plays under center while ranking 20th in EPA per play. They ran plays in shotgun the ninth most while being 12th in EPA per play. When we filter by play action under center, the Commanders were last in yards per pass attempt (3.63) and last in total dropbacks (17), so it's a small sample. For context, the best offensive teams average 8.0 or more yards per attempt on play-action plays under center.
It's hard to know how Blough will impact the Commanders offense, but more under-center plays should mean efficiency on the ground and through the air. Like Blue, Allen is a late-round best ball target as a Zero RB candidate or a rookie with upside.
De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, 49ers
FFPC ADP: 194.7, WR70
Over the past couple of weeks, Stribling's ADP has risen more toward pick 150 in FFPC leagues. The ADP data comes from the past two weeks, but might not reflect the most recent drafts. The 49ers signed Deebo Samuel Sr. to a one-year deal worth $7 million, a likely response to Ricky Pearsall dealing with knee swelling that will cause him to miss the 2026 season.
Stribling was an early Day 2 pick, the first pick in the second round, which felt slightly earlier than expected. Before the NFL Draft, Stribling was projected as an early Day 3 selection in Round 4. However, the 49ers clearly liked Stribling as a prospect. Kyle Shanahan values run blocking from their receivers. Stribling had strong run blocking grades in his final collegiate seasons.
Among wide receivers with over 200 run-blocking snaps, Stribling ranked third behind Nyziah Hunter and Denzel Boston. That should help Stribling earn reps, especially if the 49ers shift Samuel into the slot and the rookie plays across Mike Evans on the outside.
At Ole Miss, Stribling was often schemed up on plays in the short areas of the field as one of the first reads. That's evident in Stribling garnering 63.2% of his targets in the short area of the field (0-9 yards) while producing 9.36 yards per route run on short-area targets.
The visual below shows the WR prospects sorted by the percentage of targets in the short area of the field last season.
Stribling produced better against man (2.50 yards per route run) than zone (1.99), showing he can win against man coverage. Furthermore, Stribling had the fifth-highest targeted QB rating (144.8) behind Carnell Tate, Bryce Lance, Malik Benson, and Omar Cooper Jr.
Summary
Stribling remains the cheapest way to invest in the 49ers offense beyond their backup running backs and Jake Tonges if George Kittle misses time early in the season. Even if Stribling moves up to draft prices as a WR4 and WR5, there could be spike weeks from him with multiple paths to relevance.
If Evans or Samuel misses time, Stribling could see the field, especially with Pearsall already dealing with injury issues. The downside scenario for Stribling is something like Tre' Harris with the Chargers last season. Stribling might run routes sometimes, but the consistent targets aren't there, given the other options.
Stribling remains a value option in the later rounds for best ball leagues.
Ray Davis, RB, Bills
FFPC ADP: 204.4, RB67
With the Bills being cautious with Cook in Week 18, Davis went off. Davis had a 66% snap percentage, a 49% rush rate, and a 7% target share. With Davis, it's a bet on a late-round dart in the Bills backfield if Cook misses time.
The Bills ranked first in rushing yards per game, second in EPA per rush, and second in rush yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att) last season. They're one of the most efficient rushing offenses, which should continue with Joe Brady becoming head coach after serving as offensive coordinator.
Summary
Some might like Ty Johnson over Davis, but Johnson serves more as the pass-catcher in the Bills backfield. We're not expecting Davis to eat into Cook's workload, but he could be a light version of Cook if he handles a heavier rushing workload as we saw in Week 18. When we're taking late-round darts at running back, we want to identify teams that run often and efficiently.
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