Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Brandon Pfaadt, Joey Cantillo, Matthew Liberatore

July 14, 2026

Frank looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 16 in 2026, or just mirages.

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 16 of the 2026 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar with this weekly series, we take a look at starting pitchers who have had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or if they're just on an unsustainable run.

This week, we'll dive into three starting pitchers currently trending up. We're looking at their strong results over the last 14 days to determine whether or not they can keep this up. Two of these pitchers are widely available, while another is over 50% rostered.

Keep reading to find out whether Brandon Pfaadt, Joey Cantillo, and Matthew Liberatore are for real or just mirages. As always, rostered percentages are from Yahoo! leagues.

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks - 9% Rostered

Pfaadt currently has a 4.70 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP with a 17.7% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate in 53.2 innings. However, in the last 14 days, he's been rolling, putting up a 1.72 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP with a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 1.7% walk rate in 15.2 innings. This hot streak began immediately once Pfaadt was re-inserted into the Diamondbacks' starting rotation. Take a look at his game log during this stretch:

• 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K - at Dodgers
• 5.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K - at Padres
• 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K - vs Giants

You have to like the 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this stretch, but the overall lack of strikeouts is notable. If we dig under the hood during this three-start sample, we see that Pfaadt has a 4.05 SIERA and a .250 BABIP, so this current run is obviously unsustainable. However, that doesn't mean that Pfaadt can't have value for you as a streamer.

More progress from Brandon Pfaadt: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 Ks.

Really liking the simplified windup. It looks like it’s helped tighten everything up, and the results are starting to show.

75% strike rate
79% first-pitch strike rate
40% chase rate
31% CSW

The sinker, cutter,… pic.twitter.com/wo4FBI8wV1

— George Lund (@GLundMedia) July 7, 2026

If we look at Pfaadt's pitch mix, we see one key difference. He still throws his four-seamer and sinker a combined 44% of the time. However, it's noteworthy that he's increased his curveball usage from 9.8% to 19.0%.

It's been a much more effective pitch for him compared to last year, allowing a .282 xwOBA while inducing a 36.4% whiff rate (.374 xwOBA, 36.0% whiff rate last year). Perhaps if Pfaadt can continue leaning on this as his whiff pitch, we'll see a slight uptick in strikeouts.

For now, the best move is to just ride the wave. Sometimes, even pitchers with underwhelming strikeout numbers can get in a rhythm, providing a string of quality starts that can help your fantasy baseball team.

Coming out of the All-Star break, Pfaadt doesn't have a scheduled start on the weekend, but he has a two-start week vs the Athletics and at the Nationals next week. In deeper leagues where you need volume as you hunt for wins, Pfaadt is worth a pickup to see where this goes.

Verdict: Not for real, but worth firing up while in a rhythm. His command has been elite, so he can be useful as a streamer in deeper formats.

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians - 58% Rostered

I came into the season heavily targeting Cantillo because I liked what he showed for the Guardians last year. Plus, I trusted this organization for its ability to develop pitchers.

But Cantillo was quite volatile for much of the first half, which caused several fantasy baseball managers to drop him in their leagues. While his overall numbers aren't great, including a 3.56 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate and an 11.4% walk rate, he's been on a roll lately.

Cantillo has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six consecutive outings. This works out to a 1.59 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with a 30.2% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk rate in 34 innings. The underlying metrics are encouraging as well, as highlighted by an impressive 3.34 SIERA. This looks like a pitcher who always had a high upside, but just needed some time to get in a rhythm.

Joey Cantillo was excellent today against a red-hot Fish squad.

5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
20 whiffs (11 on CH)
44% CSW

He wraps up the first half with a rock-solid 8-4 record, a 3.56 ERA, and a 105:49 K:BB ratio.

Cantillo is a must-roster for me.
pic.twitter.com/zgyhtznKBc

— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) July 13, 2026

When looking at Cantillo's pitch mix, we see a changeup with a 41.5% whiff rate and a curveball with a 38.1% whiff rate. These are two putaway secondary pitches to make up for his underwhelming four-seamer (.365 xwOBA). While there's still going to be some volatility from Cantillo, you have to love the strikeout upside that he brings to the table. Out of the three pitchers within this week's column, Cantillo is easily the one with the highest ceiling.

The Guardians' lefty is slated to start against the Twins and the Rays in a two-start week starting Monday, so it's the ideal time to pick up Cantillo if he's available in your league. If that's not the case, send out a feeler for a trade because it's clear that he's found his groove lately.

Verdict: Looks for real. This is a pitcher with upside who has staying power on your roster.

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals - 8% Rostered

Liberatore came into the season viewed as a late-round flyer in deeper leagues, where he can be a dependable innings-eater to round out your rotation. But he's been underwhelming overall, putting up a 5.00 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP with a 21.4% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk rate in 93.2 innings.

However, in the last 14 days, Liberatore has caught fire, registering a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with a 27.3% strikeout rate and a 10.6% walk rate in 16.0 innings. Just check out his game log during this stretch:

• 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K - vs Braves
• 5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K - at Cubs
• 5.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 9 K - at Braves

Matthew Liberatore final line vs Braves: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R/ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 71P pic.twitter.com/n9A9wK0Opf

— MLB Quality Starts (@QualityStartMLB) July 12, 2026

What's notable here is that this run has come against tough offenses like the Braves and the Cubs. It's also encouraging to see the uptick in strikeout rate, as it includes two of his six games with 6+ strikeouts. The underlying metrics look solid during this three-start sample as well, including a 3.99 SIERA. Remember, Liberatore had some value for a stretch last year. Perhaps he's starting to find his form.

If we look at Liberatore's pitch mix, we see that his slider (35.4% whiff rate) and curveball (39.0% whiff rate) are two effective weapons that he can lean on to rack up strikeouts. When they're getting hitters to chase, that's when Liberatore is at his best, as he is now. While he doesn't have as much upside as Cantillo, I can see Liberatore providing more value than Pfaadt for the rest of the season.

Up next is a tough matchup on the road against the Diamondbacks, so it's risky to fire him up, especially since he's on the road. However, if he can get through this start unscathed, we can truly say that he's on a roll.

Verdict: Worth a look as a streamer, but not for real as a starter who is breaking out.

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