NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 15) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

December 14, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season. Week 14's results sparked a busy week of headlines around the league. The Colts not only lost control of the AFC South with yet another loss in Jacksonville, but the bigger blow was Daniel Jones going down for the season with a torn Achilles. That has, in part, led to one of the biggest shockers of the season with 44-year-old Philip Rivers coming out of retirement and signing with the Indianapolis Colts on Tuesday morning.

Honing in on the final two primetime games, the Kansas City Chiefs also lost a bruising Sunday Night Football game at home to the Texans. The Chiefs hold just a 12% chance to make the playoffs with the loss and will need to win out just to have a chance. On Monday night, the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers combined for eight turnovers, with the Eagles sustaining their third straight loss. There's plenty of Jalen Hurts talk to go around after his five-turnover game, compounded by the Eagles' general struggles on offense all season. Now looking at Week 15, we have the top two teams in the AFC, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, both riding 10-game winning streaks, yet are both home underdogs.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 15.

Week 15 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

16 - San Francisco vs. Tennessee

The Titans won their second game of the season in an unexpected shootout last week in a snowy game against the Browns, while the 49ers rest up on their bye. San Francisco is as healthy as they've been all season on the offensive side of the ball. This same Titans team just got rolled over in Week 13 against a good Jaguars team, and the 49ers should do something similar.

15 - Seattle vs. Indianapolis

This could be one of the most highly anticipated matchups with a two-touchdown spread in recent memory. 44-year-old Philip Rivers could reportedly start as soon as Sunday after signing on Tuesday, though the situation is still fluid. Riley Leonard (knee) practiced in full on Wednesday, so it could be the rookie making his first career start.

Colts QB Philip Rivers: "Shoot, I watch the Colts and the Chargers every Sunday-about every snap. And I watch about every game there is." pic.twitter.com/uI8KVMieSw

— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) December 10, 2025

The surging Seahawks will mow through either one with how dominant their defense has been this season. The old Sam Darnold has crept back with 10 turnovers in the last five games, but Seattle is still 4-1 in that time.  The Colts haven't won at Seattle since 2000.

14 - Jacksonville vs. New York Jets

Jacksonville is starting to receive some league-wide recognition, finally. Head coach Liam Coen has done an excellent job scheming the offense. Trevor Lawrence is playing as well as he ever has in his five-year career, posting the fifth-best dropback success rate (52%) since their Week 8 bye. The Jets could be starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook at quarterback this week. Jaguars should roll.

LIAM COEN IS ON FIRE IN THE JAGS LOCKER ROOM 😤😤😤😤 pic.twitter.com/2uXJRaP7BR

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 7, 2025

13 - Houston vs. Arizona

Houston arguably looks like the best team in the AFC right now. Their defense has been historically good through 14 games. With the connection between C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins back in full swing, they are a team no one wants to face in the playoffs. It will be an interesting game to see how the pass-happy, Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals attack the elite Texans secondary.

The Cardinals are throwing at an absurd clip. Over the past five games, Brissett has attempted 236 passes. That's the 34th most of any team over a five-game span since 1964, and the most since the Tom Brady-Buccaneers team in 2023, according to Stathead.

12 - Philadelphia vs. Las Vegas

Philadelphia will hear the noise this week after a turnover-filled loss to the Chargers on Monday night. They'll face an old friend in Kenny Pickett in Week 15 as he draws the start for the Raiders in place of an injured Geno Smith (shoulder). As 11.5-point home favorites and in the midst of a three-game losing skid, the alarm bells would sound even louder with an Eagles loss to a lousy Raiders team.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 15 Pick 'Em Pools

11 - Dallas vs. Minnesota

J.J. McCarthy easily had the best performance of his seven-game career last week against Washington. The Commanders' defense has been abysmal this season, but it was an encouraging performance. The Cowboys' playoff odds sit at just 11% after last week's loss to the Lions, but they still are an elite team offensively and look much improved on defense after the acquisition of Quinnen Williams.

10 -  Chicago vs. Cleveland

The current weather forecast predicts that this game will be one of the coldest games in Soldier Field history, with a high of 10 degrees with wind chills around -10. Both teams played in cold weather last week, and both lost on the last play of the game with Caleb Williams throwing a game-ending interception with under a minute left, and the Browns failing a two-point conversion to tie the game up.

Bears HC Ben Johnson highlights the importance of beating the Browns after an emotional loss to the Packers. pic.twitter.com/ofLuVJX3oK

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 10, 2025

The Bears are 7.5-point favorites in this game. It's the first time they've been favorites of a touchdown or more since Week 16 of the 2020 season against the 1-15 Doug Marone Jacksonville Jaguars, per Stathead. On the other side, Shedeur Sanders became the third QB this season to record at least 300 passing yards with three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in a game, joining Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. Cleveland's defense could also take over this game and put the Bears on upset watch.

9 - Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta

Last year's Thursday night matchup between these two teams featured plenty of fireworks, with the second-most combined points for a game on Thursday last season. It's a different story this season, with neither offense looking overly impressive at this stage of the year. Mike Evans (collarbone) will make his return for this game and hopefully jolt the struggling Tampa Bay offense.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 15

8 - Pittsburgh vs. Miami

Miami quietly is tied for the fourth-longest winning streak in the NFL with four. They've enjoyed an easy schedule in that time, but they also lost some close games earlier in the season. The Dolphins have looked like one of the more complete teams in football during that four-game win streak, with the defense turning things around after a bad start to the year.

Pittsburgh is back in control of the AFC North after a win last week in Baltimore. The Steelers have historically dominated the Dolphins in Pittsburgh, winning four of the last five with a 116 to 77 scoring differential in those games.

7 - Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City's season is on life support and will need a win just to stay alive in the playoff race. Patrick Mahomes had the worst game of his career by EPA/Play (-0.54), completion percentage (42.4%), and passer rating (19.8) against the Texans. There's context that the box score doesn't capture in that game, but everything was a challenge. He is a sure bet to bounce back, with a career 10-3 record against the Chargers with 29 total touchdowns.

Justin Herbert continues to play through a broken hand and find ways to win. The Chargers are sitting pretty with a 78% chance to make the playoffs.

6 - New York Giants vs. Washington

Washington got embarrassed last week against Minnesota in a 31-0 shutout loss. They've somehow hit a new low in a nightmare season. It's Washington's first game being shutout since a Week 7 loss in the 2019 season in a monsoon against the San Francisco 49ers with Case Keenum at QB. They've been uncompetitive for a large chunk of their eight-game losing streak, losing five by 21 or more points.

It'll be Marcus Mariota filling in for an injured Jayden Daniels (elbow) again against Jaxson Dart. The Giants currently hold the No. 1 overall pick, with Washington just one game ahead of them but fading fast.

5 - Carolina at New Orleans

Tyler Shough has been showing something in the first few games of his career. He rushed for two touchdowns in last week's upset win on the road over the Bucs. Carolina is off their bye week and is firmly in the thick of the NFC South race with Tampa Bay losing four of its last five games. Bryce Young threw for just 124 yards and led the offense to seven points in their Week 10 loss against the Saints.

4 - Baltimore at Cincinnati

These teams meet for the second time in three weeks. Cincinnati upset the Ravens as 7-point underdogs on Thanksgiving night in Joe Burrow's return, with the Ravens turning it over five times, the most in a game since Lamar Jackson became the full-time starter in 2019. They made it two home losses in a row after falling to the Steelers last week, which featured a couple of controversial calls.

Joe Burrow’s presser today felt very reflective — and at times, a bit dark:

"If I want to keep doing this, I have to have fun doing it. I have been through a lot. If it's not fun, then what am I doing it for?"

Later on: "There's just a lot of things going on right now."

(via… pic.twitter.com/L84tVy9r5a

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 10, 2025

The chances of seeing Burrow and the Bengals in the playoffs are hanging by a thread at 3%, while the Ravens still have a shot at 27%. It doesn't feel like it's going to happen for the Ravens this season, but they should find a way to avoid a season sweep against the Bengals on Sunday.

3 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit

It's always fun when these two teams face off, as they will be linked together for a long time. Detroit has won both meetings in the last two seasons, but they've fallen a bit from the heights they reached while the Rams look as loaded as ever. It's reflected in the point spread with the Rams as 5.5-point favorites, the most any Lions opponent has been favored by this season, and it's their largest underdog line since the 2023 NFC Championship game against the 49ers when they were 7.5-point dogs.

2 - Buffalo at New England

The New England Patriots are riding a 10-game winning streak and are home dogs this week, just like the Denver Broncos. That speaks to how no one has a good grasp of who the best teams in the league are. Josh Allen and Drake Maye continue to play at MVP levels. The Patriots haven't been tested much this season, but have avoided major slip-ups, which is easier said than done. New England sweeping the season series over the Bills and ending their franchise record five-year reign of the AFC East would earn the respect of many.

Josh Allen has been named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. pic.twitter.com/iymU7kBNTQ

— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) December 10, 2025

1 - Green Bay at Denver

The Packers are right there with the Rams and Seahawks for the elite teams in the loaded NFC. Jordan Love is playing at an MVP level, ranking near the top of the league in most advanced metrics, while the defense is one of the most buttoned-up units in the league that doesn't miss tackles, and has the terminator rushing the passer in Micah Parsons.

That has made the Broncos the second team riding a 10-game winning streak to be home underdogs this week. The Broncos still have plenty of questions to answer despite their pristine record. This should be one of the best games of the day with two high-end defenses duking it out.

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