NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 5) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season. The first wave of bye weeks is here, which will knock us down to 14 matchups this week. We have another international game again with the Vikings as they travel to London to face the Cleveland Browns, where rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel will make his NFL debut.

These past two weeks have been tough as both teams with the featured image have gone down. The Packers were stunned by the Browns in Week 3, then the 0-3 Giants upset the 3-0 Chargers in Week 4. The NFL doesn't make any sense, and that's why we love it. But we'll do our best in identifying some of these potential landmines and expressing caution on them in the future.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in picks for each game and tier them based on my confidence level for the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 4.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
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• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Week 5 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

14 - Detroit at Cincinnati

This game has the potential to be a historic bloodbath. Cincinnati is coming off two brutally awful losses at Minnesota and at Denver, losing a combined 76-13 and getting outgained by 534 yards. They are headed down a very bad path currently under head coach Zac Taylor, as they have a good argument for the worst team in the league. Detroit is now rolling with three straight dominant wins after getting thumped by the Packers in Week 1. They very much look like the wagon they were supposed to be on both sides of the ball, despite the coaching losses.

The last 3 teams to lose consecutive games by 25+ points and get outgained by 150+ yards:

• 2025 Bengals
• 2019 Dolphins*
• 2017 Bengals

*4-game streak between 2018 and 2019

— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) September 30, 2025

13 - Arizona vs. Tennessee

Tennessee just continues to look dysfunctional week after week under head coach Brian Callahan. They likely have the best argument for the worst team in football at the moment. Arizona hasn't looked overly encouraging in any game this year, but they showed some fight at the end of last week's loss to the Seahawks.

12 - Buffalo vs. New England

Drake Maye vs. Josh Allen on Sunday Night Football. The Bills beat the Saints in Buffalo for the first time since 1983 last week. It didn't come super easily as it was a two-point game in the fourth quarter, but they managed to win by double digits. And New England had one of the most dominant wins of the season against Carolina, winning 42-13. Drake Maye is playing at an elite level right now, and he'll have an opportunity to get the signature win of his career on Sunday night.

11 - Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco

Another NFC West matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Niners are again super shorthanded, most notably with Brock Purdy missing his third game of the season. The Rams are fresh off a home win over the then-unbeaten Colts and look solid on both sides of the ball. Mac Jones, with a shorthanded supporting cast on a short week, is not ideal for San Francisco.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 5 Pick 'Em Pools

10 - Indianapolis vs. Las Vegas

Indianapolis went toe-to-toe with one of the top contenders in the NFC and arguably should have won if not for a couple of unfortunate miscues by Adonai Mitchell. The Raiders, on the other hand, also arguably should have won in Week 4 against the Bears after having their game-winning field goal blocked. The Raiders' defense has been abysmal so far. The most crisp and efficient offense in the league through the first month should carve through it like butter.

9 - Kansas City at Jacksonville

The Chiefs' offense looked all the way back after Xavier Worthy returned to the lineup. His speed and gravity opened up so much for the offense. The Chiefs' 37 points scored in Week 4 were the most since Week 3 of the 2023 season at home against the Bears, infamously the first Chiefs game Taylor Swift attended. Jacksonville, on the other side, is 3-1 for the first time since 2018 after an impressive road win in San Francisco. A rematch of a 2022 Divisional round matchup where the Chiefs won 27-20 on the way to their second Super Bowl.

8 - Seattle vs. Tampa Bay

A pair of 3-1 NFC teams with defensive head coaches and QBs taken in the top five of the 2018 NFL Draft face off here. Sam Darnold is the top graded QB by PFF, and Baker Mayfield leads the league with three game-winning drives. Both teams have been elite at stopping the run and poor at running the ball. That potentially sets up a matchup where both Darnold and Mayfield, who are the No. 3 and No. 4 highest among QBs in Average Air Yards Per Attempt, will be dropping bombs down the field. It should be a fun game.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 5

7 - Houston at Baltimore

This feels like less of a pick 'em with Lamar Jackson's status in serious doubt for this game. Houston made good on a get-right spot last week at home against the terrible Titans, crushing them 26-0. I have little to no confidence in a Cooper Rush-led operation against this Texans defense.

6 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland

Dillon Gabriel's NFL debut in London against a Brian Flores-led defense. It's a tough spot for the rookie quarterback as the Vikings boast one of the best and most challenging defenses to go against. And the same can be said on the other side with the Cleveland defense. It's dangerous to think about what this Cleveland front may do to Carson Wentz, who took six sacks last week in Dublin against the Steelers. It's a difficult ask of Gabriel, but he should be an upgrade over Joe Flacco. Two dominant defenses, this one is very coin-flippy.

We've named Dillon Gabriel the starting quarterback

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 1, 2025

5 - Dallas at New York Jets

One of the craziest games of the season resulted in a tie for Dallas and Green Bay last week. They go on the road to the Meadowlands for a rare non-divisional matchup there. The Cowboys haven't beaten the Jets on the road since 2003. The winless Jets could pose some matchup issues for Dallas with their prolific ground attack led by Justin Fields and Breece Hall.

4 - Miami at Carolina

Carolina got embarrassed last week against New England, while Miami earned its first win of the year. But they unfortunately suffered a pretty sizable loss as well, with Tyreek Hill going down with an injury. It will be fascinating to see what the Miami offense looks like without Tyreek Hill. Bryce Young and the Panthers' offense have to get something going soon, or more conversations will need to be had.

3 - New York Giants at New Orleans

The Giants' defense was the biggest story of their huge upset win over the undefeated Chargers last week. They pressured Justin Herbert on 47.7% of his dropbacks last week and held him to a 3.24 Adjused Yards Per Attempt (AY/A), the third lowest of his 83-game career. While the Saints have hung tough in some of the games this season, Spencer Rattler is 0-10 as a starter for his career.

2 - Philadelphia vs. Denver

Philadelphia just keeps finding ways to win. They are nowhere near as good offensively through four games. They have yet to average five yards per play in a game this season, matching the same number of times they failed to in 21 games last season. The defense has still been good, but not dominant like last year. On the flip side, Denver has lost at the buzzer twice, and their two wins are against arguably the two worst teams in football. Denver's defense could definitely give Jalen Hurts and company fits to help hand the Eagles their first loss.

1 - Washington at Los Angeles

Jayden Daniels vs. Justin Herbert. They meet again after facing off back in November 2019, when a freshman Jayden Daniels and Arizona State upset No. 6-ranked Oregon 31-28. Daniels threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. He returns from his two-week absence to visit the Los Angeles Chargers back near his hometown in San Bernardino, CA. Washington allowed nearly seven yards per play and got lit up for 34 points by Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons last week. This should be one of the games of the week, with two top quarterbacks and two head coaches who were part of the same hiring cycle.

#Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has been medically cleared by doctors and he will practice fully today, coach Dan Quinn announced. pic.twitter.com/KIYG1hdZZa

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 1, 2025

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