NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 1) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pickem Contests (2025)

September 6, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

It's time for football RotoBallers! The Week 1 slate of the 2025 NFL season brings some big-time matchups, such as the Cowboys visiting the Eagles. The anticipation is building for that game in particular, with the Micah Parsons bombshell trade to the Packers a week before the season opener. What surprises will the Week 1 slate have in store for us?

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in picks for each game and tier them based on my confidence level for the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. Given the unpredictability of Week 1, more toss-ups could be in store. That’s reflected in the lines, as 11 of the 16 games have spreads of three or less.

We'll consider the spread and total when making decisions on picks while also digging into some advanced stats to find matchup advantages. As the season progresses, more data points will come and steer us in the direction of which teams to buy and fade. With that said, let's get to the picks for Week 1.

Week 1 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 16 - Denver vs. Tennessee

Cam Ward will be thrown to the wolves in his NFL debut, facing off against one of the league's best defenses and pass rushes. They led the league in sacks at 63, with the next closest team being the Ravens at 54, and also finished first in EPA/Play. The offensive line is improved in Tennessee, but the reigning DPOY, Patrick Surtain II, and company should make life tough on the rookie signal caller and roll at home. With the widest spread of the week at 8.5 points, we should have a layup.

Nik Bonitto ruined an entire 49ers series.pic.twitter.com/olBn3HUjkV

— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) August 10, 2025

• 15 - Arizona vs. New Orleans

Two former Oklahoma quarterbacks face off in this matchup as Kyler Murray and the Cardinals travel to New Orleans to take on newly announced starting QB Spencer Rattler. Arizona is returning its entire offense from last season, which finished top 10 in EPA/Play, and added multiple reinforcements to a defense that was top 10 in EPA/Play from Week 9 on last season.

• 14 - Philadelphia vs. Dallas

This is a nod to the strength of the Eagles' roster and how it can directly exploit Dallas' weaknesses. Philadelphia retains four out of five starters on the offensive line and added depth pieces, helping ensure their strength remains a strength. Dallas is light on the defensive line, and the Eagles should likely have their way on the ground. Dak Prescott and the offense should be able to move the ball against a semi-new defense, but it likely won't be enough.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 1 Pick 'Em Pools

13 - Washington vs. New York Giants

Russell Wilson came into Washington and stole a win last year when he was on the Steelers, but this year will be a different story. The Giants' defense looks dangerous, especially up front with the addition of third overall pick Abdul Carter. However, Washington also fortified the trenches by trading for Laremy Tunsil and selecting Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round. Second-year QB Jayden Daniels looks to build on a historic rookie season and get off to a fast start now that Terry McLaurin is back.

we are sooooooooo back pic.twitter.com/bCzE5n1e47

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) August 27, 2025

12 - Cincinnati vs. Cleveland

The Bengals' woes in Week 1 are a secret to no one these days, and a trip to Cleveland for the opener could be seen as another trap. Cincinnati opened the 2023 season in Cleveland against a Jim Schwartz defense, and Joe Burrow had by far the worst game of his career, completing 14 of 31 passes for 82 yards (2.6 Y/A). The next lowest yards per attempt for a game in his career is 5.1, but the Bengals are at least aware of their sluggish starts and made a change in approach.

11 - Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Chargers

This game begins the string of matchups all within a spread of three points or tighter. This matchup definitely fits the mold of a toss-up with a divisional matchup, relatively even teams, and a neutral playing field in São Paolo, Brazil. But Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will earn the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. Getting explosives back into this offense is an emphasis for Mahomes and the offense, and I'm expecting some fireworks to ascending second-year WR Xavier Worthy.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs spent “an inordinate amount of time” on their deep passing game this offseason

finding a solid left tackle may have been the key to unlocking it

would be huge for Xavier Worthyhttps://t.co/74tQfeRMIb https://t.co/KCFRUjMlHB pic.twitter.com/PdZKibjLTJ

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 26, 2025

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 1

10 - Jacksonville vs. Carolina

There are multiple similarities between these two teams in this much-anticipated matchup.  We have two rookie WRs (and CB) in Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan making their NFL debuts. Then, we have two former number one overall picks in the last five years facing off with Trevor Lawrence in 2020 and Bryce Young in 2023, and both are looking to take the next step in their development. Both are coached by former Tampa Bay offensive coordinators, with Liam Coen in Jacksonville and Dave Canales in Carolina. This one could be a shootout, and we will ride with the home squad.

9 - Seattle vs. San Francisco

This is another coin flip of a game, as I expect Seattle to be a good football team this season under head coach Mike Macdonald. The offense has an identity with the zone run game under offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and that defense is loaded with talent at all three levels, with Macdonald pulling the strings. The San Francisco offensive machine isn't quite back to form yet, even with star running back Christian McCaffrey looking good, as they have multiple injuries at wide receiver already.

8 - Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay

Atlanta opens the season at home against a Bucs team that they swept last season. Those wins both came with Kirk Cousins, and now second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. is set to take the reins. The offense should be incredibly efficient, relying on the duo of Bijan Robinson and Drake London. While the defense, on the other hand, figures to be a work in progress and could have trouble stopping the run against Bucky Irving and a strong Bucs offensive line.

Another Michael Penix chart pic.twitter.com/JViJSRO1KO

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 17, 2025

7 - Green Bay vs. Detroit

Micah Parsons' Green Bay Packers debut. He'll likely be on a moderate snap count, but it'll be everyone's first time seeing him in the green and gold. First round WR Matthew Golden has drawn high praise all camp for his advanced route running and elite hands. On the flip side, this Lions team still looks incredibly potent with everyone back healthy, including star Aidan Hutchinson. It's another coin flip, but the vibes are high with Green Bay right now.

Micah Parsons announced he will be wearing No. 1 for the Packers 🧀 pic.twitter.com/FtuUBJxHEu

— ESPN (@espn) August 30, 2025

6 - New England vs. Las Vegas

Both teams overhauled their rosters and coaching staffs for the most part, especially New England. They made some substantial additions on both sides with DT Milton Williams and LT Will Campbell in the trenches, as well as WR Stefon Diggs and CB Carlton Davis III. Diggs gives their young QB, Drake Maye, a reliable veteran receiving threat, while Davis and Christian Gonzalez are a nasty duo at cornerback. Geno Smith teamed back up with head coach Pete Carroll, and while it's exciting and I'm optimistic about the offense, the defense could be leaky.

5 - Miami vs. Indianapolis

This is more of a bad vibes matchup with the way the news has trended out of both of these teams' camps. The Anthony Richardson Sr. vs. Daniel Jones QB battle had a disappointing end with the boring veteran Jones earning the starting nod. In Miami, the Tyreek Hill situation is unsettling, head coach Mike McDaniel is predicted to be the first coach fired by everyone, and the team has just not looked good throughout joint practices and the preseason. But I trust McDaniel to show us another cool offensive trick like he did in 2023 that pulls a lot of people back in.

4 - Pittsburgh vs. New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers' revenge game, Justin Fields' revenge game. This game has a final score of 16-13 written all over it. Both defenses and run games project to be very solid, and that's their formula. Ultimately, I trust Rodgers to operate a functional passing offense much more than with Fields.

3 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Houston

The thought of 37-year-old Matthew Stafford with an injury facing off against this Houston defense and pass-rushing group is a bit concerning for the Rams. All indications are that he will supposedly be good to go, but it's tough to fully trust. The debut of duo Puka Nacua and Davante Adams should alleviate some things, as well as edge rusher Jared Verse, on the other side, can also single-handedly wreck games. Houston still has questions along their offensive line, which plagued QB C.J. Stroud last season.

2 - Buffalo vs. Baltimore

Sunday Night Football in Buffalo. Lamar vs. Josh. Flip a coin and enjoy a clash between two of the best. Last year's playoff game was a classic, with the Mark Andrews drop being the most memorable moment. Baltimore still has a stylistic advantage over Buffalo because the Bills always want to play with lighter bodies in nickel, which is a death sentence against Derrick Henry and the Ravens as they bludgeon teams with that approach.

1 - Minnesota vs. Chicago

The biggest mystery in the NFL is Vikings second-year QB J.J. McCarthy. The offensive environment is plush for the young signal caller to come in and be productive from the jump, even with his lack of experience in both college and pro reps. On the other side, offensive guru Ben Johnson takes over at the helm in Chicago to help amend 2024 number one overall pick Caleb Williams after a poor rookie season. Johnson's offense is supposedly intricate and complex, which has brought expected growing pains in training camp. It'll be fascinating to see what one of the best QB prospects in recent years and one of the best offensive coordinator candidates can do together.

Aaron Jones told me that JJ McCarthy's football IQ is right there with AARON RODGERS. Listen to this.@Vikings @UpAndAdamsShow #skol

pic.twitter.com/qu3uUwUi0S

— Kay Adams (@heykayadams) August 20, 2025

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