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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 8/16/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
It's been a while since I penned the NRFI piece here at RotoBaller, as we have shifted some writing assignments around; however, I will be doing at least one article a week for NRFI bets for the rest of the season.
I happened to draw today's slate, and after digging through the stats and trends, I found four NRFI bets that I love, including one at plus money!
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Saturday, August 16, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to happen more often, which is why you usually see shorter odds compared to YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable, as whenever I take a YRFI, it feels like an inevitable loss. There's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning. If you're taking the YRFI, I suggest not even watching the game.
My favorite part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Just remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning at times.
Best First Inning Bets Today (August 16, 2025)
- Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians: 7:10 pm ET
- New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals: 7:15 pm ET
- Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins: 7:15 pm ET
- Arizona Cardinals at Colorado Rockies: 8:10 pm ET
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ATL: Joey Wentz
- CLE: Slade Cecconi
No afternoon action for me today, all four of my bets are in evening games. We start with two young pitchers facing off in Cleveland as Atlanta rolls out the lefty Wentz against the Guardians, who counter with right-hander Cecconi.
Wentz has only been a part-time starter this season, but he's stacked up three straight NRFIs for Atlanta and now has a 4-1 NRFI record overall this season. I like lefties against Cleveland better as it puts leadoff man Steven Kwan on the wrong side of his splits and pushes Kyle Manzardo further down the order or out of the lineup entirely.
The Guardians have been surprisingly good in the first inning lately with a 50% YRFI hit rate, but they are still a below-average offense. Wentz needs to get Jose Ramirez out, which is always a challenge, but I think he matches up quite well against the others at the top of the order.
Cecconi is coming off a YRFI in his last start, but has a strong 12-3 NRFI record on the season. He has some very good first-inning stats this season, but has been victimized by the home run ball in all three of his YRFIs. So if he can keep the ball in the yard today against the Braves (7-3 NRFI record, .211 batting average in last ten games) then I think we can cash this bet. This matchup doesn't jump off the paper, but it's one with solid odds and a pretty good chance of hitting, I believe.
New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- NYY: Max Fried
- STL: Sonny Gray
These are the worst odds of the four bets today, but with the best pitching matchup of the bunch, it makes sense. The Yankees have their ace, Fried, facing a Cardinals offense that has not scored a run in the first inning in ten straight games. You have to like that matchup for Fried, who, despite some second-half struggles, has still piled up 17 NRFIs this season.
Sonny Gray, Sick 86mph Back Foot Sweeper...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/JULgElUGBY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 5, 2025
Shutting down the Yankees is a tall task, and any pitcher that has to face Aaron Judge has to be to so careful not to leave a fastball or slider over the middle of the plate. The Yankees have a 50% YRFI hit rate over their last ten games, but they're about to run into a veteran pitcher who has been in his bag lately.
Gray's last two starts have been dominant. He shut down the two best offenses in the National League in limiting the Cubs and Dodgers to one run each over seven innings with seven and eight strikeouts, respectively.
When Sonny is on his game, he's tough to figure out. He's a master of pitch sequencing and painting the corners of the strike zone with all his pitches. I'll give him the upper hand here based on his recent form, and I think he can secure his 19th NRFI on the season tonight.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Casey Mize
- MIN: Zebby Matthews
Mize has had his share of first-inning adventures lately, but the Detroit hurler has still posted a very solid 16-4 NRFI record this season. The Twins' lineup is less scary these days since the deadline with Byron Buxton being the one dangerous hitter that Mize will have to contend with from the leadoff spot.
If Mize can hold the Twins at bay, then I feel very good about our chances because I love Twins' righty Zebby Matthews in this spot.
Zebby Matthews, Nasty 89mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/cBGUDvWsYH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 30, 2025
Matthews has been piling up strikeouts lately as he just whiffed nine Yankees in his last start. He also gave up three home runs in that start, and that's the only concern I have, as he has been very HR-prone this season.
However, the Tigers' offense ranks just 17th in wRC+ vs. RHP over the last two weeks with a 24% K%. Before that start against the Yankees, Matthews had reeled off four straight NRFIs, and he now sits at 7-2 on the season.
Both young righties have plus stuff and a solid NRFI track record this season. If we can dodge the home run ball, I love our chances at cashing this bet.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies NRFI (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ARI: Ryne Nelson
- COL: Chase Dollander
Before you dismiss this bet and call me crazy, hear me out, please! Yes, betting on an NRFI in Coors Field is usually a bad bet, and it's not something I would normally consider. However, I think we have a perfect storm today that makes it worthwhile at these odds.
The Rockies are rolling with their best rookie hurler, Chase Dollander, tonight. Dollander returned from the IL last week and pitched five strong innings against the Cardinals, allowing just one run with five strikeouts. While it's been a very rocky (pun intended) rookie year for Dollander, he has flashed his potential in small doses. Like most young pitchers he's struggled against hitters the second or third time through the order, failing to make adjustments as the game goes along.
Dollander's ERA the first time through the order is just 3.48, and he's held opponents to a .234 average. That stat makes sense when you consider that Dollander has reeled off five straight NRFIs and has a strong 12-4 NRFI record on the season despite his overall surface numbers being very, very bad.
Ryne Nelson's 2Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/70jQ8kh8pE
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 12, 2025
On the other side of this matchup is a young pitcher who is pitching at the highest level of his young career. Nelson got touched up by the Rangers for five earned runs in his last start, but had made four starts in a row before that with two earned runs or fewer. He's been piling up strikeouts, too, with 22 Ks over his last 16 innings pitched.
Nelson has a strong 12-3 NRFI record of his own and also comes in with a five-game NRFI streak intact!
While Coors Field can humble any pitcher at any time, we have two young pitchers who have proven NRFI track records facing off in this one, so I'm going to take a shot on both guys getting the shutout and giving us a win at plus money.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Cardinals (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Astros/D-Backs (60%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Astros (6)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Mariners (.341)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Mariners (.438)
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