Fantasy Football Landmines: Draft Avoids and Busts in Each of the First 10 Rounds

Dave's draft busts and fantasy football draft fades for each of the first 10 rounds. His top landmines to avoid, including Saquon Barkley and more.

The 2025 NFL season is quickly approaching. If you want this to be the year you finally win your fantasy football league’s trophy, then now is the time to start planning.

There’s an old saying when it comes to fantasy football. You don’t win your league on draft day, but you sure can lose it. That’s why it’s so important to identify which players you should avoid. There are potential landmines in every round of the draft. Select enough of these players, and it’s a first-class ticket to a last-place finish and a humiliating punishment. Today, we will identify players you should avoid in every round of your league’s draft. For our exercise, we will use ADP (average draft position) data from ESPN fantasy football leagues.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X, and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are the landmines you should avoid in every round of your 2025 fantasy football draft.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Round 1 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Barkley's 2024 was remarkable as he set career highs in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns and won the NFL's rushing title.

SAQUON BARKLEY IS GONE. 68-YARD TD.

📺: #PHIvsWAS on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/lhBWLZclYZ

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

However, he accumulated 482 touches (including playoffs), and that kind of work takes a toll on a running back. We have seen many running backs experience a decline in production following a season with that much work, and injuries can pop up as well.

Barkley could thus see a decline in production, and all that work could mean his body breaks down during the season. So, while it's understandable that gamers are excited to draft Barkley, it would behoove them to proceed with caution in 2025.

Round 2 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson - QBs, Buffalo Bills/Baltimore Ravens

Allen and Jackson are both great players, and both finished as the top two quarterbacks in fantasy leagues last year. They should both enjoy fine seasons again in 2025.

Fading them both here has everything to do with their cost. It’s tough to justify spending a second-round pick on either quarterback when you can wait and get Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes a few rounds later. Several intriguing late-round options also have QB1 upside.

While Jackson and Allen are highly likely to enjoy strong seasons in 2025, there’s no guarantee either will finish as a top-2 option again. Both are priced too close to their ceiling. That generally means it’s a good time to fade them and address the position later in the draft.

Round 3 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Joe Mixon - RB, Houston Texans

Mixon's first season in Houston was undoubtedly a success. He ran for 1,016 rushing yards, scored 11 rushing touchdowns, and finished 2024 as the PPR RB17.

MIXON. 45-YARD TD.

📺: #HOUvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Z3C33tMXWN

— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2024

However, he still only averaged 4.15 yards per carry, and some of the underlying data suggests he's a declining player. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Mixon finished 38th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/ATT) and 34th in PFF's elusive rating. Volume was on his side, though, and he still provided value for fantasy managers.

Mixon will be 29 years old at the start of the 2025 campaign, and he is approaching the danger zone for older running backs. His decline in several metrics doesn't mean he will certainly be a bust. If Mixon is given the same volume he saw last year, then he will still return to solid RB2 production.

However, if his efficiency metrics and missed tackles data continue to disappoint, then it will suggest he is continuing to slow down. At which point, it's possible Houston's coaching staff could experiment with other options on the roster. Dameon Pierce has struggled since his solid rookie year, but he could be given another chance.

Fourth-round rookie Woody Marks could also be given a shot if Mixon struggles. The Texans also signed veteran Nick Chubb to a one-year contract, which could further complicate the backfield.

Houston might not opt to replace Mixon if they are winning games. However, if things go sideways or the offense continues to scuffle much like it did at times in 2024, then Mixon's standing as the team's RB1 could waiver. Either way, there is a risk in drafting Mixon in 2025. He could still return solid production, but it might be best for managers to target other backs this year.

Round 4 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Alvin Kamara - RB, New Orleans Saints

Despite finishing 2024 as the PPR RB9, Kamara continued a downward trend in several advanced metrics. He is now one year old, and 2025 will be his age-30 season.

Combine that with the Saints' current mess of a quarterback situation, and Kamara (and possibly the entire New Orleans offense) becomes an easy fade in 2025.

Round 5 - Fantasy Football Landmines

James Conner - RB, Arizona Cardinals

Conner is coming off arguably the best season of his career in 2024. He had a career-high 1,094 rushing yards, caught 47 passes for 414 receiving yards, and scored nine total touchdowns. It culminated with a half-PPR RB10 finish.

45-yard catch and run by James Conner for the score!

📺: #NYJvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/lJzAiHSDjV

— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024

Like Kamara, 2025 will be Conner's age-30 season. This isn't a death knell for every back, as evidenced by Derrick Henry's massive 2024. But there is a lengthy list of backs whose play has declined at age 30 or older.

Conner's been a value in drafts the last several years, but this could be the year he explodes in managers' faces.

Round 6 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Aaron Jones - RB, Minnesota Vikings

Jones eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the fourth time in his career last year. He even set new career highs in carries (255) and rushing yards (1,138). However, his yards per carry declined for the second consecutive season, and he also performed poorly in several key metrics. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Jones only finished 40th in MTF/ATT and 37th in PFF elusive rating. Yikes.

It now makes perfect sense why Minnesota acquired Jordan Mason and wants him to have a role in the run game. How large of a role Mason gets remains to be seen, but either way, it's not good news for Jones' value. Look elsewhere on draft day.

Round 7 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Denver Broncos DST

Even though the Broncos' defense should be one of the better units in the NFL this year, DST scoring can fluctuate wildly from year to year. There is no reason to take a DST this early. Don’t be that person in your draft.

Round 8 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Javonte Williams - RB, Dallas Cowboys

Williams appears to be in the driver's seat to begin the season as the Cowboys' RB1; however, he was terrible last year for the Denver Broncos. Among running backs with 100+ attempts in 2024, Williams finished 45th in RYOE, 43rd in PFF elusive rating, and 46th in PFF rushing grade.

He just hasn’t been the same player since suffering a significant knee injury in 2022. While he might seem like a good bargain at this price, Williams is likely to struggle again this year and probably will lose the starting job at some point during the season.

Round 9 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Keon Coleman - WR, Buffalo Bills

Coleman’s rookie season was not exactly what Bills fans were expecting. He averaged a robust 19.2 yards per reception but struggled mightily to consistently separate against defenders.

Out of 169 receivers with 50+ targets, Coleman finished 142nd in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Average Separation Score. He also finished dead last in Next Gen Stats' Average Separation (SEP) score. However you slice it, Coleman couldn’t get open.

Combine this with the Bills' preference to spread the ball around on offense, and it's hard to envision a second-year breakout. Let someone else think they're playing hero on draft day.

Round 10 - Fantasy Football Landmines

Colston Loveland - TE, Chicago Bears

Loveland was selected 10th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears. While he was arguably the top tight end prospect in the NFL Draft, Loveland should be avoided in 2025 fantasy football leagues.

Rookie tight ends traditionally struggle and often disappoint in their first year. Yes, Brock Bowers broke numerous records as a rookie in 2024. However, he was a generational prospect and should be viewed as an exception, not the norm. Chicago also has a very crowded receiver room, and Loveland will be fighting for targets with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and fellow tight end Cole Kmet.

Loveland is Chicago’s tight end of the future, but gamers should temper expectations in Year 1. That means fantasy managers should avoid him in 2025 drafts.

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