PGA Course Preview for the 2025 Memorial Tournament: Scouting the Routing

Ian McNeill's free comprehensive course preview of Muirfield Village Golf Club for the 2025 Memorial Tournament. Ian examines the course, giving key metrics and trends to help make informed decisions on the PGA betting board.

If you're one of the many golf fans who enjoy watching some of the best players in the world hack it around like a weekend warrior, the month of June on the PGA Tour should be tailor-made for your suitabilities. Muirfield Village and Oakmont loom as two of the most challenging of a set of venues as we could ever hope for in professional golf, and particularly over the last few years, Jack's Place has emerged as a venue to be truly feared.

From thick, ankle-deep rough to deep greenside bunkering and lightning-quick bentgrass greens, you'd be excused for confusing Muirfield Village with more of a Major Championship venue than many others in recent history. In fact, since a 2020 redesign that finally put Jack's grand vision into full focus, only Augusta National has played as a more difficult venue to par in the subsequent four seasons. One thing is for sure: the player who earns that famous handshake from the Golden Bear on Sunday afternoon will have had to survive 72 holes of peril within the confines of his sublimely manicured den.

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Muirfield Village Golf Club and the 2025 Memorial Tournament!

The Golf Course

Muirfield Village Golf Club - Par 72; 7,569 yards

Past Champions

• 2024 - Scottie Scheffler (-8) over Collin Morikawa
• 2023 - Viktor Hovland (-7) over Denny McCarthy (playoff)
• 2022 - Billy Horschel (-13) over Aaron Wise
• 2021 - Patrick Cantlay (-13) over Collin Morikawa (playoff)
• 2020 - Jon Rahm (-9) over Ryan Palmer

Muirfield Village by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 33.9 yards; 15th widest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 286.4 yards; 13th lowest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 63.6%; 11th highest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.47; Highest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.010); 12th toughest on Tour

With a scoring average of 73.88 over the last four years, Jack Nicklaus's Muirfield Village has clearly established itself as the toughest recurring test on the PGA Tour. Since 2020, it has never ranked lower than seventh in difficulty to par, and unlike many recent Major Championship venues, Muirfield Village doesn't even need the trick of a Par 70/71 layout to accomplish these lofty averages.

There are, of course, many reasons as to why Muirfield Village stands out from the pack as one of the most difficult courses on the schedule: but perhaps none are as pertinent as the peril players face from the tee box. Jack's four-inch mix of Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass, and fescue has played as the most punitive rough on the schedule in five of the last seven years (average penalty of 0.46 shots), and the 13 holes in which water comes into play boost this week's Penalty Fraction to 5.8% (a mark higher than even some of Florida's most waterlogged layouts).

As a result, success at Muirfield Village has been much more correlated to accuracy as opposed to distance (despite ranking as the fifth-longest course on Tour this season). Last year, only four of the top eleven finishers on the leaderboard rated above the field average in driving distance, while all but three gained to the field in fairway percentage -- and over the last four years, only six of 44 top-ten finishers have ranked below the field average in Good Drive Percentage.

One allowance that is afforded to players this week is in the forgiveness of Muirfield Village's fairways. Measuring just under 34 yards wide on average, there is enough room to be had for the week's most accurate players to log driving accuracy percentages of 70-80%. These percentages might also be bolstered by recent rains in the area that project to soften the landing areas and lessen the amount of guesswork players will have to deal with when the ball hits the ground. If players aren't able to take advantage of this forgiveness, however, they're likely in for a fight against par for the duration of the hole.

Muirfield Village by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 58.8%; Fifth lowest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.044); Fifth toughest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 200+ yards (accounted for 32.0% of last season's approach shots)
  • 175-200 yards (17.6%)
  • 150-175 yards (17.2%)

As brutal of a driving test as Muirfield Village has become in recent years, the Golden Bear has set many more traps throughout this thorough tee-to-green examination. Measuring just 5,000 square feet on average, the greens at Muirfield Village rank as the third smallest we'll see all season -- a defense normally reserved for some of the Tour's shortest layouts.

Unlike the microscopic targets we see at Pebble Beach or Harbour Town every year, however, Jack's greens here at Muirfield Village will require players to take aim with a long-iron in hand routinely. Nearly one-third of approach shots last season came from over 200 yards, and one-half of approaches came from beyond 175.

This combination of long-iron intensiveness, small greens, and firm turf resulted in the lowest Green in Regulation rate on the PGA Tour last season (50.5). Over the last four seasons, that rate has never climbed above 57.3% and never ranked worse than the fifth-toughest approach course on the PGA Tour.

Again, softer conditions will mitigate the difficulties players have faced in recent years (although no significant rain is projected at any point during tournament week), but regardless of what factor moisture plays in scoring, the emphasis we should place on iron play can not go understated. In fact, over the last seven tournaments held here in Dublin, only one Champion has managed to earn this prestigious title while gaining less than five strokes to the field on approach.

The top five finishers here have gained over 40% of their total strokes with their irons (a share greater than off-the-tee and around the greens combined), and over the last three seasons, just 13% (9/67) of the top 20 finishers have attained that position despite losing strokes on approach. Iron play will be far-and-away my most heavily weighted metric -- specifically from 175 yards and beyond.

Muirfield Village by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 52.5%; 5.2% below Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.046); Fourth toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.028); Seventh toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.082); Toughest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.052); Third toughest on Tour

There may be more correlative stats to success this week at Muirfield Village, but I'm confident in saying that no part of this golf course will wreak as much havoc on player's scorecards than its greenside surrounds. Since 2015, this course has never ranked lower than the sixth most difficult venue to scramble around on the PGA Tour, and the same rough that we talked about being so penal off of the fairway staunchly maintains that reputation off of the greens.

In fact, since 2015, only four courses have produced a higher average rough difficulty from around the green: Winged Foot at the 2020 U.S. Open, Quail Hollow at the 2017 PGA Championship, Oak Hill at the 2023 PGA, and Shadow Creek at the 2021 CJ Cup.

The greenside bunkers around Muirfield Village also deserve special mention, as they've ranked as the fourth, seventh, 12th, and second most difficult bunkers to scramble from over the last four seasons. With a green-in-regulation rate that sits at 58% over the last ten seasons (and just 50.6% 12 months ago), players will be expected to navigate these greenside surroundings much more than on an average week. It's no surprise, then, that the last six winners have gained an average of 3.53 strokes with their short games, and only 17% of top ten finishers since 2020 have been able to attain that position with a negative week around the greens.

Around the green, play will be as heavily weighted in my modeling as it has been all year, and I'll be looking particularly closely at a player's historic acumen around other golf courses with dense rough and deep greenside bunkering guarding their putting surfaces.

Muirfield Village by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- Bentgrass
• Stimpmeter: 12.5-13
• 3-Putt Percentage: 2.8% (0.2% below Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (+0.000); 16th easiest on Tour

The putting surfaces themselves this week will be another in a recent line of bentgrass greens in the last month on Tour. Routinely coming in at over 12.5-13 on the stimpmeter, the greens at Muirfield Village do often rank as some of the fastest on Tour. However, apart from their sheer speed, they don't have a ton of added nuance associated with them.

In contrast to the three tee-to-green metrics we've discussed in previous sections, Muirfield Village doesn't actually rate as a particularly difficult course to putt on. The three-putt percentage here sits below the PGA Tour average, and over the last three years: Muirfield Village has ranked as the 17th, 27th, and 33rd most difficult course to gain strokes from beyond 15 feet.

Inside of fifteen feet has been a relative cakewalk as well, as Muirfield Village has ranked in the bottom half of Tour difficulty in each of the last three seasons. This lack of bite, along with the severe penalty associated with deficiencies in each of the ball-striking metrics I outlined earlier, means that putting will naturally take a bit of a back seat compared to most weeks.

However, this isn't to say that putting is completely irrelevant at Muirfield Village, as the last seven winners at this course have gained an average of 3.7 strokes on the greens. In percentage terms, though, I will be weighing putting significantly less than in normal weeks, as the penalty for poor putting has proven much less severe than a clear deficiency in other aspects of your profile.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Mid/long iron play -- specifically looking at Proximity, Strokes Gained, and GIR splits from beyond 150 yards
• Driving Accuracy/Good Drive Percentage
• History here at Muirfield Village
• Scrambling from thick rough/deep greenside bunkering
• Historic putting splits on fast bentgrass greens
• Par 5 Scoring
• Strokes Gained in Difficult Scoring Conditions

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Collin Morikawa

No stranger to Jack's Place.
@Collin_Morikawa won the 2020 Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village and looks to get his first victory @MemorialGolf. pic.twitter.com/eEM1evRri0

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 6, 2024

It hasn't necessarily been a dream run of form leading into Collin Morikawa's 2025 Memorial, but if there were any venue on Tour for the World No. 4 to find his footing, it'd have to be right here at Jack's Place. From the fade-biased nature of Nicklaus's design, to the precision required both off of the tee and into the greens, it's no wonder Muirfield Village has provided Collin with one of his happiest hunting grounds in his five years on Tour.

Since crowning his Muirfield Village debut with a win in 2020, Collin has gone on to finish runner-up on two more occasions (2022, 2024), and entered the final round in 2023 just two shots back of the lead before severe back spasms forced him to withdraw with 18 holes to play.

It's not like Collin's been devoid of life in this recent spell either, as he fired a first round 63 three weeks ago at the Philadelphia Cricket Club before settling into a T17 finish. He would have been the low-man on Friday at the PLAYERS Championship if not for a course-record 62 from Justin Thomas, and still sits well inside the top 10 over his last 36 rounds in each of my key ball-striking stats (Good Drive Percentage, Fairways Gained, SG: Approach).

Considering we were paying prices of 12-1 here last year (in a field with Rory and a much more in-form Xander Schauffele), I think the books have overreacted a bit to a tough four days for Morikawa at the PGA Championship. With its rather benign, over-seeded rough, Quail Hollow was much more distance-biased than I expect Muirfield Village to play this week, and time and time again, Collin Morikawa has proven he's got the perfect skillset to take advantage of Jack's diabolical layout. I'll gladly hop on here at prices of 16-18/1.

Matt Fitzpatrick

All the right moves from Matt Fitzpatrick in Round 2. Catch the key moments from his 68.

Will he keep the momentum going on Saturday?#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/4yCG82MbKG

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 17, 2025

He's been far from the most consistent entity on the PGA Tour since his U.S. Open breakout three years ago, but Matt Fitzpatrick has proven that when he does find form, he's capable of taking down the biggest titles in the sport. His first two, of course, have come in a Major Championship at Brookline and a stacked Signature Event in Harbour Town, and notably, each came directly off the back of a top-10 finish in a Major Championship: T3 at the 2022 PGA proceeding his U.S. Open triumph, and a T10 at the Masters the week before claiming victory at the 2023 Heritage.

Not only does Fitz have the recent results box checked for this week (finishing T8 at Quail Hollow two weeks ago), but the stats indicate there are legitimate strides being made on the ball-striking front. Fitzpatrick said himself in a post-round interview at Quail that things really began to came together at Harbour Town: where he recorded his best tee-to-green performance in nearly two years (6.1. strokes gained). And in three starts since, Matt has gained each week with his iron play (most recently ranking fifth in the PGA Championship field on approach).

With a short game like Fitzpatrick's, it doesn't take a ton of life with the ball-striking to thrust your way into contention: as evidenced by his fifth-place finish right here twelve months ago. Matt attained that top-five position despite losing strokes to the field with his iron play (-0.5), and gaining 6.5 strokes with his chipping and putting.

In addition to last year's T5, Fitzpatrick has recorded finishes of 9th and 3rd in 2023 and 2020 respectively (notably the two hardest renditions we've seen of this event in its history). This shouldn't come as any surprise to long-time followers of Matt's game: as his track record at venues like Bay Hill, Olympia Fields, and Muirfield Village proves just how adept he is at managing the Tour's most difficult venues.

There might be a slight case of sticker shock to those that follow the PGA odds boards on a weekly basis, but Fitz's combination of recent form, history at Muirfield Village, and pedigree in marquee events makes him well worth any price >50-1 in this week's limited field. I see him as one of the few genuine dark horses down the board who stands a chance to take down Scottie and the rest at the top of the World Golf Rankings.

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— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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