Quarterback ADP Risers and Fallers After The 2025 NFL Draft

May 8, 2025

Kevin's fantasy football post-free agency quarterback (QB) ADP risers and fallers for 2025. His fantasy analysis for the biggest ADP shifts for quarterbacks.

We’re well past the NFL’s free agency period and a little ways after the NFL Draft, so it’s a good time to check in on some of the average draft position (ADP) risers at quarterback as we head into the late spring.

Conversely, through some of the wheeling and dealing teams have done, some quarterback situations have become a bit murkier with additions, subtractions, competition, and other factors. It is important to develop some context by examining these players to see if they are still worth drafting despite the consensus opinion.

Let’s dive into a couple of risers and fallers at the quarterback position throughout the last couple of months.

Quarterback ADP Risers

Justin Fields, New York Jets

The New York Jets signed quarterback Justin Fields in the early part of NFL free agency as one of the first moves by the team in the post-Aaron Rodgers era. While Fields still has a lot to do to live up to his billing as a 2021 first-round pick, he’s been a goldmine for fantasy football when he has played.

While the Jets and new head coach Aaron Glenn still have excellent skill-position players in wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall, Fields is the key piece that will determine the fate of the Jets in 2025. At the very least, the Jets did not draft a quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft, so he’s got quite a bit of security in his job heading into this season.

People act like Justin Fields is a death sentence for Garrett Wilson.

Guess which year of DJ Moore’s career Fields was throwing to him.

Hint: It’s the one where he logged career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. pic.twitter.com/1G9PhV7Zek

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) April 17, 2025

For fantasy purposes, we love the rushing element in fantasy. In the six games he started with the Pittsburgh Steelers last season, Fields was the QB7 in fantasy points per game with 19.1. He was right there with the elites at the position, and it wasn’t because the Steelers were stacked with receiving talent. The Jets are probably better equipped on the offensive side of the ball, so that will be even more attractive for fantasy managers.

Not only did Fields survive the NFL Draft, but the team took Armand Membou to bookend with Olu Fashanu for what looks to be an elite offensive tackle pairing for the future. It’s no secret why Fields is rising in ADP: he came out of the NFL Draft without a quarterback being drafted, and he got a bookend tackle. Fields should be a borderline top-12 fantasy quarterback that will be drafted much lower in most formats this season. Don’t ignore the obvious upside!

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Many expected the Rams to move on from Matthew Stafford after 2024 gracefully, but at the end of February, the team announced that Stafford would return as the team restructured his contract. Better yet, the team did not draft a rookie quarterback, so this team is Stafford’s for at least this season. Provided he performs well, the team will likely go year-to-year with him.

What can we expect from Stafford in 2025? Well, his longtime breakfast partner Cooper Kupp heads north to Seattle, and replacing him is Davante Adams, who still has a lot left in the tank heading into his age-33 season. Thankfully, Puka Nacua exists and makes any quarterback’s life easier. As does head coach Sean McVay, who has proven over his entire tenure as Rams’ head coach to be one of the foremost schemers of offensive football, and he knows how to get a pass-catcher wide open.

On Underdog Puka Nacua goes in the 1st round, Davante Adams goes round 3-4. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford goes off in round 13-14 as the QB24.

How's that supposed to work?

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) March 19, 2025

We know Stafford’s surroundings are excellent and one of the most fruitful fantasy environments in the NFL, but can Stafford take advantage of that to put up great numbers? Well, considering Stafford hasn’t notched a 4,000-yard passing season or thrown for 30 touchdowns since his Super Bowl campaign in 2021. You also don’t get the rushing upside with Stafford, though even in his more spry days in Detroit, we never got any rushing upside there either.

The bet here is efficiency, and while I wouldn’t doubt Stafford has one more 30-touchdown, 4,000-yard campaign left in him, it’s less and less likely the older he gets, now that he’s 37 years old. Stafford is more of a quarterback streamer that can provide some floor, and he can maybe be a startable option in a stretch of good matchups. While he’s an ADP riser, I think the expectations for Stafford need to be tempered given what we know and can reasonably project.

Quarterback ADP Fallers

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is one of the bigger fallers in early drafts because of many factors around him that compound things. The lack of a target-earning wide receiver was a glaring need at the end of last season, as when the team got down in games, they didn’t have a go-to receiver. While their group of receivers is good, they all blend together and can’t be relied upon over the other.

The Packers hoped to select somebody in the 2025 NFL Draft who could be a target-dominant receiver in their offense. They selected Matthew Golden in the first round and Savion Williams in the fourth round, but neither fit that profile and could further compound the Packers’ passing-game issues.

Some of the issues with Love and the passing game are that they just don’t do it enough in games. After the team’s Week 10 bye, Love had 30 or more pass attempts just once in eight games. It was no surprise that the Packers were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, as they were a bottom-3 team in pass rate over expected (PROE) behind the Colts and Eagles and had the second-highest raw rush rate (48 percent) behind the Eagles.

Why wouldn’t they? Josh Jacobs ran like a man possessed last season with 12 touchdowns in his final eight games and a run of five straight games as RB6 or better. But you’ve got to have balance, and you need the passing game when you have to have it, and they refused to rely on any part of their passing game for volume purposes.

As for Love in a fantasy football context, he had zero weeks as a top-10 fantasy quarterback after Week 10 and was QB18 in that span, averaging just 14.4 fantasy points per game. Zero games with over 275 passing yards and zero with more than two touchdown passes.

Will it be more of the same in 2025? The Packers’ pass-catchers are just as big of a question mark as they were last season, and Green Bay doesn’t look like they’re going to shift from a run-heavy focus with Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd, and others. Love feels like a caretaker-type quarterback rather than a facilitator, so he will be a disappointment for fantasy unless he takes that next step. It shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s an ADP faller.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

The vibes have never been lower on Anthony Richardson, who provides a roller-coaster-like experience for anybody who has the stomach to watch him. Like we talked about with Fields, Richardson has the rushing upside we want, but might have one of the least polished arms of any quarterback in recent memory.

So, where are we with Richardson? He’s been a steady ADP faller for a while now, thanks to the Colts bringing in former Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to compete with Richardson for the starting job in 2025. That move added a lot of fuel to the Richardson fire after a 2024 in which he averaged just 15.9 fantasy points in 11 games and took himself out of a Week 9 game because he was “tired.” He was then benched for Joe Flacco for two games and missed the final two games due to injury.

It’s probably bad that Richardson couldn’t even complete half of his passes (47.7 percent completion rate) last season, and even though he ran for 499 yards on the ground, it wasn’t enough to significantly impact fantasy. In this case, the negatives far outweigh the positives, and bringing in another quarterback muddles everything up.

You might be able to hit 65% completion percentage if you lump Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Riley Leonard’s together.

— Jameson Hutchison (@Jamesonrulez) April 26, 2025

While Richardson has what we’re looking for with rushing upside, the glaring negative factors involving what you do as a quarterback (mainly throwing the ball) rear their ugly head too often. Richardson might get the first crack at the Colts’ starting quarterback job in 2025, but he feels like he has a short leash. He’s a prominent faller and might not be worth the headache of drafting unless we get some security in knowing Richardson will have the starting job for this season.

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