RADIO
Dan's fantasy baseball risers, fallers for 2025 drafts based on noteworthy Spring Training news, hot/cold hitters and pitchers, injury concerns and more.
We get a few games that count starting tomorrow as MLB continues the tradition of starting a week early with the Tokyo series. The rest of the league has another week's worth of games before making their final cuts and heading north for Opening Day.
Spring training results are fun to track, but should we read into the numbers (good or bad) posted by our favorite draft targets? Whether we like it or not, the length of spring training allows for the ADP of players to be influenced one way or the other.
We probably shouldn't get too hyped up or depressed based on only a few weeks' worth of developments, but it would be foolish to pretend that the preseason doesn't matter at all. Here are some of what I think are noteworthy observations of what has happened across the league so far this spring.
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Fantasy Baseball Injury Concerns
You can read a full breakdown of Dave Funnell's Spring Training Injury Report for more detailed info, but here are some of the big names who are hurt and the ADP fallout.
George Kirby is going to start the season on the IL and might not debut until May. His ADP has dropped to 57 as a result. I am not sure I can draft him there, even considering how much I like him as a pitcher.
The same goes for Grayson Rodriguez, who was shut down for a few weeks and will miss the start of the year. His ADP has dipped to 132, which makes him a value if he comes back strong. But I am very nervous about taking a guy there who is already dealing with arm trouble before we even start the year.
The Rangers lost Jon Gray for a while with a broken wrist, but more importantly, will also be without lefty Cody Bradford who matters a bit more for fantasy baseball with an ADP of 340. You can now skip Bradford in drafts and consider streaming some of the Texas young guns (Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker) in the early part of the season.
Parker Meadows was gaining steam as a late-round value before getting shut down with an injury. His ADP is holding steady at around 215, as he's still cheap enough that managers are drafting him with the hope that he doesn't miss much time.
Both Bobby Witt Jr. and Austin Riley avoided major injuries when being hit by pitches last week. Managers who drafted them can breathe a collective sigh of relief.
All Aboard The Hype Train!
Wyatt Langford, OF - Texas Rangers
The Rangers sophomore slugger is hitting .500 with a home run in his first 14 at-bats.
The Wyatt Langford breakout and ascension to elite status this season is going to be glorious.pic.twitter.com/wJnG3XUyes
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 12, 2025
His ADP is up to 43 and the hype surrounding a potential breakout is reaching a fever pitch. He has all the tools to be a top-20 hitter, but his price has never been higher. Draft accordingly!
Junior Caminero, 3B - Tampa Bay Rays
Your favorite analyst's favorite breakout candidate is now being drafted at an ADP of 87 and has already smashed three dingers this spring. He's also only hitting .179 so far this spring and hit only .248 in his first 177 major league at-bats last year. But he's a 21-year old massively talented player at a weak position, so it's completely understandable as to why folks are so excited about him.
Lawrence Butler, OF - Athletics
Butler was likely the best waiver wire pickup of 2024 as he broke out in a big way for the Athletics in the second half, smashing 13 home runs and hitting .300 after a slow start. He's hitting .353 this spring with two home runs and managers can't help but continue to take him earlier and earlier in drafts as his ADP has risen to 67!
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF - Chicago Cubs
The speedster has been hitting everything this spring with a .519 batting average in his first 27 at-bats. He's swatted three homers and swiped two bases. His ADP is up to 140, and if you think you will catch others sleeping on him in drafts, then think again; the secret is out!
Clay Holmes, SP - New York Mets
Holmes is a converted reliever, coming over from the Yankees where he was a closer. He's whiffed 15 batters over 14 innings with a 0.71 WHIP and 1.29 ERA. He's throwing the coolest new pitch in the majors - the "kick-change" and it looks nasty when paired with the rest of his arsenal.
Clay Holmes has looked excellent this spring and has shown he is ready for an Opening Day start! https://t.co/A4n4v9qRzX pic.twitter.com/xmUmurhwcW
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) March 14, 2025
He might still be a value at an ADP of 236 but he's getting steamed up by touts everywhere so I wouldn't expect him to fall that far in your drafts.
Gavin Williams, SP - Cleveland Guardians
Williams is another pitcher available in the late rounds who is getting a lot of hype this preseason. I wrote about him in my post-hype breakouts, and his strong spring (1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 16 strikeouts) is also helping managers.
Hot Starts: Hitters Who Matter For Fantasy
- Rhys Hoskins - 6 HR, .346 AVG
- Matt Wallner - 5 HR, .250 AVG
- Matt Chapman - 4 HR, .462 AVG
- Jorge Soler - 4 HR, .343 AVG
- Juan Soto - 4 HR, .385 AVG
- Daulton Varsho - 4 HR, .350 AVG
- Elly De La Cruz - 3 HR, 6 SB, .452 AVG
Of all of these guys, I think the Wallner power numbers are most relevant for fantasy managers. Minnesota has been leading him off despite Wallner being a guy who has never hit for average, but who does have some solid OBP numbers - copying what the Phillies have done with Kyle Schwarber.
Just another Matt Wallner appreciation post! pic.twitter.com/cpdNiSdM0z
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) March 15, 2025
Wallner is being taken around pick 278 in drafts and could be an absolute steal if he can stick as the leadoff hitter (even if he is platooned and sits against lefties). He has massive raw power and the potential to hit 30 HR.
You probably don't need me to twist your arm to take EDLC with a top-3 pick, but if he can improve the average this year while maintaining his power and steals, he could be the best player in fantasy baseball.
I am all over Juan Soto this season and taking him in the middle of the first round of drafts with the expectation that he can duplicate his numbers from last season or even improve upon them in his first season with the Mets. Bet him as the NL MVP while you're at it.
Slow Starts: Hitters and Pitchers Struggling Early
Hitters
- Kyle Tucker - .043 AVG, .407 OPS
- Carlos Santana - .097 AVG, .340 OPS
- Masyn Winn - .103 AVG, 12 strikeouts
- Salvador Perez - .120 AVG, .314 OPS
- Kyle Schwarber - .121 AVG, 16 strikeouts
- Jo Adell - .143 AVG, 12 strikeouts
- Kristian Campbell - .152 AVG, 13 strikeouts (only one extra-base hit)
- Jazz Chisholm - .156 AVG, 13 strikeouts
- Triston Casas - .167 AVG, 11 strikeouts
- Tyler Soderstrom - .167 AVG, (zero extra-base hits)
- Coby Mayo - .179 AVG, 13 strikeouts
Let's pause for a moment and remember that these guys have made - at most - around 35 plate appearances this spring so there's no need to panic. But it's never fun to watch your favorite young player struggle early on.
I worry a lot less about veterans like Schwarber, Santana, and Perez than I do about rookies and prospects who need to gain confidence in their ability to hit major-league pitching.
Campbell is on a lot of breakout lists with an ADP of 289 as he's expected to break camp as the everyday second baseman. He and Casas are two Red Sox sluggers who are getting a ton of hype heading into the season.
Mayo is likely to start the year at Triple-A again this year and his spring numbers are not helping his cause to stay up with the big league team. He's one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, but Baltimore doesn't have room for him on their roster, and he's not going to force his way into more playing time until he starts hitting.
I'm pretty high on Soderstrom as a late-round breakout, but he's done nothing so far. Hopefully, he can get going before the season starts.
Pitchers
- David Festa - 11.91 ERA, 1.91 WHIP
- Luis L. Ortiz - 12.66 ERA, 2.06 ERA
- Kumar Rocker - 22.85 ERA, 3.69 WHIP
- Edward Cabrera - 25.07 ERA, 3.21 WHIP
- Shane Baz - 9.64 ERA, 1.93 WHIP
I'll just start by saying that Rocker's and Cabrera's numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt as both have thrown only four innings. But those are not just one bad outing either, Rocker has made three separate appearances, and Cabrera has made four, leaving his last appearance with a blister on his finger.
Festa is a guy I loved coming into the year, but as a youngster on the outside looking in on a spot in the rotation, he's not doing himself any favors in trying to make the team out of camp. I'm still high on him and drafting him in deeper formats.
Ortiz is not really on my radar, I know some thought Cleveland could fix his issues against lefties but I am not in that camp.
Shane Baz is either hurt, experimenting, doesn’t care about spring or is weeding out drafters who don’t deserve him. pic.twitter.com/qHf5PE6QKX
— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) March 13, 2025
Baz is a popular later-round pick and an uber-talented young pitcher, but his struggles with the long ball continue and I'm not as bullish on him as many. I'm drafting other Tampa pitchers (Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) far more often than Baz who simply hasn't been the same pitcher since returning from arm surgery.
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