Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates: Mid-Round Draft Values and Targets for 2025

August 24, 2025

Andrew's fantasy football breakout candidates, sleepers and value picks for the middle-rounds of 2025 draft including Jaylen Warren, Tyrone Tracy and more.

The top of a fantasy football draft isn't too difficult. Sure, we have our preferences, but the group of guys going in rounds one and two is there for a reason. It's hard to mess up.

The middle rounds are where you can win and lose a league. Hit on those picks, and it seems like you had extra picks to start the draft. Miss, and you'll be scrambling to find depth and pieces for your starting lineup.

Here are some mid-round sleepers and values who can help you get off to a hot start in your redraft leagues this season.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Arthur Smith doesn't care about draft capital. Arthur Smith doesn't care about your fantasy football team. Arthur Smith will do whatever Arthur Smith wants to do.

Arthur Smith isn't too excited about the initial development of third-round rookie running back Kaleb Johnson. According to reports from Pittsburgh's training camp, Johnson still needs to work on his pass protection and receiving abilities, which could result in a minimized role to begin the season, especially since the 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers statue needs an extra blocker or outlet.

So Jaylen Warren is probably keeping a big role, eh? pic.twitter.com/5Fiv4evpVa

— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoABrown) August 10, 2025

That means the formerly undrafted, fourth-year back Warren will receive the bulk of the backfield touches in Week 1, and it's a role he may not lose. It's also a role he's never had in the professional ranks. He has zero career starts, but played a significant role for the Steelers alongside Najee Harris for the last two years. Efficiency-wise, he outplayed his counterpart.

Warren is the best running back in terms of avoided tackle rate since he entered the league. He's also in the top ten in yards after contact and yards per rush attempt. Can that be sustained in a larger role? That's the big question. He's on the smaller side - 5'8", 215 - but did log 281 touches in 14 games during his final collegiate season at Oklahoma State.

His production in the passing game is even more important. That's a role that he's guaranteed to keep as long as he's healthy. He's a gritty pass-blocker and was sixth in yards per route run last season. Those are the aspects of his game that initially got him a job, and it has kept him on the field.

Rodgers doesn't throw downfield often anymore. He was 29th in yards per attempt (6.7), had a 9.1% checkdown rate, and hyper-targeted Breece Hall out of the New York backfield last season. Hall finished third in targets (76) and target share (13.8%). Warren wasn't too far behind (48 targets and an 11.9% target share), despite the part-time role and nursing hamstring and knee injuries.

Pittsburgh won't be a pass-happy offense. It's not in Mike Tomlin's or Arthur Smith's DNA. Warren should set a career-high in attempts per game (previously 8.8) while adding at least three receptions per game. A seventh-round average draft position is an incredible value, especially in PPR leagues.

He's currently going after Johnson in drafts. Kenneth Gainwell may be the more worrisome running back to Warren's production, at least early in the season.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

Recently, I wrote about Jerry Jeudy being a mid-round value because of the early-season schedule and Joe Flacco quarterbacking the team during that stretch. The same argument applies to Njoku.

Cleveland's tight end was a league winner the last time Flacco was under center. Njoku was the TE1 over a four-week stretch at the end of the 2023 season. A wide, 18.5-point margin separated him and the TE2. He didn't score fewer than 16 PPR points in any game.

That was then, and things are a bit different now. For starters, Cleveland made the playoffs that season. This year, they project to have one of the worst teams in football. But the negative game scripts will benefit the Cleveland passing game, and Flacco can still sling it.

The first five weeks of Cleveland's schedule are almost guaranteed to give us a second-half pass-happy Cleveland offense. The Bengals scored the sixth-most points in football last season. The Baltimore Ravens were number three. The Packers dropped over 27 points per game. Detroit topped the list, and the Minnesota Vikings finished ninth. That's the first five games for the Browns. There's no team outside the top ten. Every game will be a high-scoring affair, and the Browns should be playing from behind.

Njoku and other Cleveland offensive weapons have seen their average draft position depressed by Cleveland's quarterback room. Some prop apps are offering an over/under on Flacco's starts. The line is at 5.5. A 0-5 start could signal a new era, whether that be Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders. That's not good for Njoku, but at least the Browns will continue to play from behind.

RotoBaller ranks Njoku outside of the top 12. Others consider him the last of the mid-round tier with Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, and Evan Engram. He's a better value at cost than all of those tight ends.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Meyers transitioned from a "he can't score" punchline to one of the league's perpetually underrated wide receivers. He's been a WR3 or better every year since his third season in 2021, when he finally scored his first touchdown. Last season, he logged a career-high 87 receptions for a career-best 1,027 yards and finished as the WR19 while only playing in 15 games.

Once again, however, he's ranked outside of the top 30, despite finishing higher than that for four straight seasons.

Meyers will be playing for a new contract while catching passes from Geno Smith. There's renewed optimism about the Las Vegas offense under the direction of Chip Kelly's innovation and Smith's arm. I don't want to remind you about the quarterbacks paraded through Sin City recently. The inaccuracies of Jimmy Garoppolo, Gardner Minshew, and more spark bad memories for Raiders fans.

Over the top.#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/evf2i9R7X6

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) August 1, 2025

While Smith is no Patrick Mahomes and may still be the worst quarterback in the AFC West, he's precise when throwing the football.  Smith averaged a completion percentage over 67% when paired with Pete Carroll in Seattle. Aidan O'Connell, Minshew, and Desmond Ridder averaged 63.6% as a trio in 2024.

We love more catchable balls for a wide receiver who averaged 8.6 targets per game. That number doesn't project to change with only a few alterations to the pass-catching personnel. Meyers will reprise his role as the second fiddle to tight end Brock Bowers. Fourth-round rookie Dont'e Thornton Jr. or Tre Tucker will be the WR2. They're best utilized in the vertical passing game, not the underneath stuff that Meyers excels at.

Again, Meyers is being drafted at his floor, even on a run-first offense. You can grab Las Vegas' top wideout in the seventh or eighth round, and he'll become a set-it-and-forget-it flex option.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants

The moment Cam Skattebo was selected in the fourth round of the NFL Draft, the fantasy football community anointed him the Giants' running back to roster. A hamstring injury has kept him off the field for most of August.

Will Skattebo eventually take over the bulk of the touches? It's possible, but the rookie wasn't even involved with the first-team offense before his injury. At least for the start of the season, it's Tracy's backfield.

The sophomore finished his debut campaign with 192 carries for 839 rushing yards and five touchdowns while adding 38 catches for 284 receiving yards and another score. It was done in basically 13 games. He played a fraction of the snaps in the first four weeks until Devin Singletary got injured. Tracy rushed for 129 yards in his first start and never ceded the gig.

Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s patience & vision, combined with his stop & start ability make him a much better prospect for the Giants than I think a lot of people recognize.
The first play here, a 12-yard gain, would've gone for 0 or negative yards for a whole lot of backs. pic.twitter.com/nUbQNLgyRe

— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) August 17, 2025

The Giants' offense should be much improved in 2025. The Daniel Jones-led quarterback carousel is replaced by Russell Wilson, Jaxson Dart, and Jameis Winston. Even if Wilson is demoted sometime during the season, the offense will be better than the version that scored the second-fewest points per game last year.

Tracy will be a big beneficiary, as long as he keeps his fumbling issues under wraps. He fumbled five times last year, and three in a two-game window (two lost). That led to a short benching when Brian Daboll kept Tracy on the sidelines to start the Week 13 game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Tracy is one of the last true starters being selected, and for someone who was a collegiate wide receiver and brings a pass-catching ability to his game, that shouldn't be the case. For fantasy managers who prioritize wide receiver at the top of the draft, or spend a top pick on an elite quarterback or tight end, Tracy is one of the perfect selections in the seventh or eighth round. He will be the Week 1 starter, and it's a role he could keep for the entire 2025 season.

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