TGL Match Preview: Boston Common vs. Jupiter Links - UPDATED WITH PICKS

January 25, 2025

TourPicks offers a preview of TGL Match 4 between Jupiter Links and Boston Common Golf. Insight and analysis into TGL strategy, holes, and betting lines for TGL golf.

We have arrived at Match 4 for the inaugural TGL season for the highly anticipated match, headlined by two majority owners of the league, as the Boston Common take on the Jupiter Links (0-1).

It's a marquee matchup in a pivotal moment for the league as their have definitely been some learning curves over the first few matches, but I think we now have a solid baseline understanding of the operation and we can begin to make some educated picks moving forward.Here's everything you need to know about the match:

The Players

Boston Common

Player 1: Rory McIlory (OWGR Rank: 3)

Player 2: Adam Scott (OWGR Rank: 21)

Player 3: Keegan Bradley (OWGR Rank: 13)

Jupiter Links

Player 1: Tiger Woods (OWGR Rank: 1146)

Player 2: Kevin Kisner (OWGR Rank: 832)

Player 3: Tom Kim (OWGR Rank: 24)

The player number is important because that reflects the order of both the Triples portion and creates the matchups for the individual singles sessions.

Tiger vs Rory, Monday night on ESPN.

Get your 🍿 ready... pic.twitter.com/LGJDwZ9am4

— TGL (@TGL) January 24, 2025

The Course

Each week the TGL selects a new set of 15 holes for the match. This week features five par 3s, five par 4s, and five par 5s. We have a few new holes that we will see for the first time this week included the Par-5 Sidewinder, Par-4 Hatchet, and the final hole of the night which will be a 579-yard Par-5 called Pin Oak.

I've found that the most important holes in determining who wins the match thus far have been the Par-3s. Through the first three matches, the winning team has yet to lose a single point on the Par 3's. They will range from 135 to 205 yards this week. Avoiding the bunkers is a massive advantage, as players still seem unsure how to play many of the bunker shots which feature turf underneath the fluffy sand, making it unfamiliar to judge.

Jupiter Links must find a way to at least tie the hole on the Par 5's. They are at a huge disadvantage in this match in terms of driving distance. All three players average under 300 yards in driving distance and in the first match Kisner only hit it an average of 273 yards. He'll have to hit the tee shot on the 2nd hole, Bonnie Link, which plays 602 yards. Jupiter lost four out of the five par-5's in their opening match against LA.

Hole Spotlight

Loot on the Line

One of the real stars of TGL thus far has been Piza Golf, who has designed some of the most intriguing, risk/reward, and strategic holes that flirt with the line of gimmicky. One of those examples is Loot on the Line, a 391 yard par-4 that was a massive swing hole in the previous match between Atlanta and New York.

The hole asks you a series of questions off the tee. The safest play is going to the left fairway which offers a 70-yard-wide landing area, but you will see those circular rivets that continue to push the ball left and create totally blind approach shots as you can't see over the mound. Cam Young had to hit an approach from there last week, and mentioned how it was extremely tough to hit when you have zero visual targets on the screen that is 70 yards away.

Patrick Cantlay elected to hit onto the right fairway. It's narrower, but allowed for a much easier approach shot. This decision to take on a riskier option off the tee was a difference maker. They had a clean approach shot from 150 yards, hit the green, and thus captured a pivotal point in the match to go up 2-0.

Kevin Kisner, who plays this hole versus Adam Scott, will almost certainly have to play to the left fairway given his lack of distance. Adam Scott however, may elect to bomb it to the middle fairway! It's only 27 yards wide and requires a 300-yard carry, but the fairway acts as a halfpipe funneling the ball to the middle and leaving players less than 60 yards left into the green. I love this hole and the underlying strategy of it!

The Betting Line

Boston Common -230 vs. Jupiter Links +190 (Hard Rock Bet)

This matchup on paper is about as lopsided as it gets. The average combined world rankings of the Boston players is 12 while the Jupiter team is 667. They also hit it substantially further, which has proven to be one of the key metrics for success in TGL. Several holes require a forced carry to gain an advantage and Boston has a massive advantage in that regard.

The one factor that does present some value for Jupiter is they have two players which have already competed in a TGL Match (Woods and Kisner). Understanding the experience within the arena, as well as some of the nuances around the green, has to present some sort of bump for them.

Jupiter has to hit greens in regulation. They only managed to hit 4 out of 15 in the first match, so hopefully they will get a boost from Tom Kim this week who is the best approach player on their team. The other factor that killed them in their last match was the ineffective use of the Hammer. On holes where it was thrown, Jupiter lost 6 points and won 0. That has to change if they want any shot this week.

Thus far, despite some claims of inaccuracies in the tech, the TGL has been pretty straightforward in picking the winner. Take the better team and the team with a clear advantage in distance. -230 will be the highest price that we have had to lay thus far, but it's hard to make any unbiased take on Jupiter possessing any value in this lopsided matchup.

I'm going to forgo laying the juice on Boston as a team for the time being and look to isolate individual matchups like we did last week, looking to target Adam Scott and Keegan Bradley when the individual lines come out next week. Once again, I will be there LIVE on Monday night covering the event for Rotoballer and looking forward to another week in TGL.

My Picks:

Boston to win -195

Tiger Woods +195 over Rory McIlroy in singles

Adam Scott -220 over Kevin Kisner

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