Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 John Deere Classic

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at TPC Deere Run. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 John Deere Classic outright betting card.

The four names on this betting card are aimed at returning about 6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the over two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 24 outright winners (a 20.2% hit rate) for a profit of nearly $15,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 34.7%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. But if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, outright golf betting has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 John Deere Classic!

John Deere Classic Betting Card

Sungjae Im (20-1)

Celebrating Sungjae Im's birthday with the top shots of his career so far 🥳 pic.twitter.com/Sx13ExQ5ol

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 30, 2024

Although Sepp Straka's title defense and Patrick Cantlay's injuries will take up most of the headlines, it is actually the field's second-highest-ranked player who has shown a more extensive run of lead-in form. Sungjae Im comes into his first "non-elevated" start since the Valspar Championship in March on the back of a third-place finish at the Travelers Championship (besting the aforementioned Cantlay), and four additional top 12 finishes coming at the Memorial Tournament, Charles Schwab Challenge, Wells Fargo Championship, and RBC Heritage.

In fact, outside of the Major Championships, you could argue Sungjae sits as one of the hottest commodities in the golfing world: ranking third in Birdie or Better Percentage over his last 24 rounds, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and sixth in Positional Driving. He's historically had his greatest success on the Tour's shorter, more accuracy-intensive setups (TPC Summerlin, Sedgefield, Harbour Town, PGA National), and he's coming into the week on the back of his best approach week (+5.1) in nearly 18 months (2023 Farmers Insurance Open).

Sungjae's driver remains as metronomic as it gets in the game of golf: gaining strokes in each of his last 10 starts, and his putting (although inconsistent to this point in the year) has still shown a profound ability to carry him to top finishes: gained at least 2.4 strokes in five of his six top 15 finishes this season. Sungjae also ranks as a top 20 putter in this field over the long-term on bentgrass greens, and in his last three forays on this surface (River Highlands, Muirfield Village, Colonial), Sungjae has gained a combined 9.5 shots to the field with his flat stick.

It seems like everything is finally coming together after a headache-inducing start to his 2024 campaign, and this course and field should give the young Korean fond memories of his last win in the fall of 2021: a swing season event on 7,100-yard TPC Summerlin. Given his recent form, we'll almost certainly have to pay a hefty price for the world No. 28, but in a field devoid of reliable options, I'd be more than comfortable paying anything in the 20-1 range for a player who I believe will one day count himself as one of the ten best players on the planet.

J.T. Poston (35-1)

An excellent wedge shot and near-holeout for J.T. Poston from 91 yards on the 5th. 👏

📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @theRSMClassic pic.twitter.com/ByFSD7ZTiy

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) November 16, 2023

Poston may not be able to claim himself as one of the PGA Tour's premier iron players as he could down the stretch of his 2023 campaign, but he's still proven more than capable of mixing it up at his favorite venues -- even as the strength of competition grows. The 49th ranked player in the world is playing a decidedly different schedule than he was in his run of 11 starts last summer/fall in which he logged a 64% top ten rate, but in spite of his game log made up almost exclusively of elevated events and Major Championships, the Hickory, North Carolina native has missed just two cuts and recorded ten top-30 finishes in 18 starts this year.

Now in a field where he should realistically expect to be priced as a top-10 entity, Poston has been strangely forgotten about on odds boards -- even as a past champion of the John Deere Classic. Currently priced closer to 20-year-olds Luke Clanton and Nick Dunlap than he is to the betting favorites, Poston's game is as tailor made for a venue like Deere Run as can be found in this field. He sits as a top 10 wedge player in this field over his last 50 rounds, he's the second-best bentgrass putter over a two-year span, and the facet of the game that has routinely given him in the most trouble (driving), has straightened out considerably in the new year: as he currently ranks inside the top 30 in Fairway Percentage.

From TPC Deere Run, to Sedgefield, Harbour Town, River Highlands, and Summerlin, it's difficult to find a shorter course on Tour for which J.T. Poston has not found repeated success. Even at 35-1, I see him as one of the clearest values on the betting board -- I'm sure he'll appreciate a week without the likes of Scottie Scheffler and company fighting him for a place at the top of the leaderboard.

Ryo Hisatsune (66-1)

A shot worthy of the club twirl 😍

Ryo Hisatsune sets up birdie to go 2⃣ clear at the top!#CazooOpenDeFrance pic.twitter.com/UYIJkHCyZN

— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 24, 2023

If you were to look up some of my takes heading into the 2024 season, Ryo Hisatsune would have popped as one of the strongest positions I intending on holding in the New Year. The 21-year-old Japanese (who has already celebrated his third birthday as a professional), has already established a winning track record around the world: winning three times in his maiden season on the Japanese Challenge Tour and capturing last year's French Open title at Le Golf National -- the same venue that is scheduled to host the Olympic Games in a month's time.

In his maiden season outside of his home nation, Hisatsune established himself as an elite performer in two skills that should serve him quite well around TPC Deere Run: ranking inside the top 12 on the DP World Tour in both Driving Accuracy and Strokes Gained: Putting. This year, in his transition onto the game's biggest stage, Ryo has seemingly put another piece of the puzzle into place. Hisatsune ranks 18th in this field in SG: Approach over his last 36 rounds and has gained at least four strokes with his iron play in two of his last four starts.

If the strides he's shown recently on approach prove to be sustainable, the tools are all there for Ryo to once again burst onto the scene in a debut season on a third different Tour. Now 11 years removed from Jordan Spieth's breakout win as a 19-year-old and seven years removed from Bryson DeChambeau's maiden Tour win, what better venue to crown another promising young star?

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Seamus Power (70-1)

Sixth birdie of the day for Seamus Power @RBC_Heritage 👏 pic.twitter.com/OWi8mXSmPe

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 18, 2024

Formerly known as one of the preeminant short-course ringers in world golf, Seamus Power has steadily shown flashes of returning to his former status. He's recorded four top 30 finishes in Elevated Events over the last three months (including two on direct comp. courses to Deere Run: Harbour Town and TPC River Highlands), and ranks inside the top 10 in both recent approach form (SG: APP last 24 rounds), and in long-term wedge proximity (Strokes Gained <150 yards over his last 50 rounds).

Here at TPC Deere Run, the Irishman has logged four top 25 finishes in five career starts, including an eighth and 13th within the last two seasons. He's never lost strokes putting on these bentgrass greens (gaining 2.4 strokes per start), and ranked ninth in last year's iteration with his approach play. Given his historic proficiency on short courses, recent trend, and the lack of truly elite options in this field, 70-1 is more than a fair enough price to take a shot on Power's third career PGA Tour win.

Daniel Berger (80-1)

Daniel Berger (+1600 ML) rolls in a birdie to grab himself a share of the lead at -16
pic.twitter.com/NPf0bPhymp

— Bet The Greens (@betthegreens) February 14, 2021

The cover boy of last week's betting article was a disappointment in Detroit, but as he's once again priced in the nosebleeds of this week's odds board, I'm more than happy to jump back in for another shot on a dream course fit. Berger was once again let down by an unreliable short game at the Rocket Mortgage, losing over a stoke and a half in two rounds on and around the greens, but his driver remained as reliable as it had ever been (missing just 3/28 fairways through those two rounds), and his short-iron play ranks as one of the most prolific weapons in any players toolkit this week.

Since the start of the 2024 season, Berger ranks eighth on the entire PGA Tour in Strokes Gained per shot from inside 150 yards. He sits in the 93rd Percentile for both Proximity to the Hole and Good Shot Percentage from 100-150 yards, and in three starts at the John Deere Classic, Berger has gained a combined 8.0 shots on approach in 12 competitive rounds.

Notably, Berger's putter has also found repeated success here in the Quad Cities, gaining a combined 5.2 strokes to the field in 12 rounds around Deere Run. Just a few weeks removed from recording his best tee-to-green performance in over seven years (+10.7 at the 2024 U.S. Open), if these putting trends can continue on these benign bentgrass complexes, it's clear that the framework is still there for Berger to recapture the form that allowed him to be a mainstay in the top 20 of the world rankings just a few years ago. I'm not giving up just yet -- especially at prices nearing triple digits on a positional, wedge-intensive golf course with no top-20 players in attendance.

Joel Dahmen (150-1)

Draining it at the last 💪@Joel_Dahmen finishes his day with a 23-foot birdie @RocketClassic. pic.twitter.com/yZ3sbciqEh

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 27, 2024

Stints at the top of the leaderboard have been few and far between over the last few seasons for Joel Dahmen, but when he has shown up to the dance, it's tended to be on the Tour's shorter courses -- and especially those with a high missed fairway penalty. Between 7,084-yard Hamilton Golf Club in Ontari0, to 7,275-yard TPC Sawgrass, and 7,255-yard TPC Summerlin, Dahmen has logged finishes of 10th, 11th, and seventh since the start of last fall, and this week, Joel returns to the site of his first-ever runner-up on Tour: TPC Deere Run at the 2018 John Deere Classic.

Not only does Dahmen bring with him some positive signs in course history, but we're also seeing signs that his ball-striking is rounding into form. Joel's gained strokes with both his driver and his iron play in four consecutive starts dating back to the Byron Nelson, and over his last 24 rounds, he ranks inside the top five in Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie Chances Created, and Good Drive Percentage. That sort of precision tee-to-green play should suit this venue to a tee, and in his last start on pure bentgrass greens (last month's Canadian Open), Joel recorded his best putting performance in over two years (+4.3). Sentimental angles aside, this sort of profile is one I'm always game to chase at prices deep in the triple digits.

Kelly Kraft (250-1)

¡Excelente! Así fue el birdie de Kelly Kraft en el quinto hoyo del PGA Championship. ¡No te lo pierdas! pic.twitter.com/rwmSZrUNSU

— SportsCenter (@SC_ESPN) May 19, 2019

Speaking of statistical darlings that currently sit way down the odds board, Kelly Kraft was the clearest value on the board for me when running my preliminary numbers. It's not often that the field leader in Approach can be found as deep as 250-1, but with an average of 3.9 strokes gained over his last five starts, nobody in this field can match Kraft's iron splits in their last 24 rounds.

Kraft also ranks as a top five entity in driving accuracy in that time, a top 20 wedge player over his last 50 rounds, and recorded a fifth place finish here back in 2016. With just three players in attendance this week currently ranked inside the top 30 of the world rankings, Deere Run is a prime spot to carry on the 2024 tradition of cashing outright tickets of 200-1 and beyond. By my metrics, Kraft shouldn't even be allowed to fit into this category.

Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!

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