Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 U.S. Open

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Pinehurst No. 2. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 U.S. Open outright betting card.

The four names on this betting card are aimed at returning about 6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the over two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 23 outright winners (a 19.8% hit rate) for a profit of over $13,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 32.6%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. But if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, outright golf betting has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 U.S. Open!

2024 U.S. Open Betting Card

Collin Morikawa (18-1)

Collin Morikawa from WAY out on 12 for birdie and a one-shot deficit! 🔥

📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/AhsykBSfbp

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) June 9, 2024

He was our leading man last week at Muirfield Village, and as the momentum continues to build with another top-five finish, it's impossible not to go back to the well with Collin Morikawa this week. Despite the fact that he's sat as high as 2nd in the World Golf Rankings two years ago, Major #3 has never felt closer for the sweet-swinging Californian -- as Morikawa, an already accomplished U.S. Open player as-is, has spent the last few months honing a reliable short game to pair with his elite ball-striking.

Over his last 36 rounds, Collin ranks sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. He's gained strokes with his putter in five of his last six starts, and as we alluded to in last week's write-up, the approach play continues to trend towards the elite levels you'd expect from a guy once touted as the best iron player in the sport since Tiger himself.

For the first time in his already exemplary career, there isn't a single facet of the game that seems to be pestering Collin at the moment: a fact that's further exemplified by the fight he showed in the final group with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler last Sunday. Down four at the start of the day and five walking off of the sixth green, Morikawa displayed a tremendous level of resolve against an in-form Scheffler -- trimming the lead down to one just six holes later.

In the end, a few untimely misses and a clutch putt from Scottie on 16 were too much for Collin to overcome, but a runner-up at Muirfield Village to a guy gaining 13 shots on approach should be nothing for Morikawa to hang his head about. As a fan of his since he's come on Tour, I'm finally seeing Collin walking around like the player we were convinced was about to lead the line for his generation in the annals of golfing history. With the way he's trending at the moment, this three-year Major drought could quickly become nothing but a blip on his trajectory to all-time great status.

Brooks Koepka (30-1)

Brooks Koepka hits an incredible chip shot for a birdie 🤯pic.twitter.com/FMg0FukC94

— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) June 17, 2023

Fresh off of an eight-birdie 65 in the final round of LIV Houston, it almost defies belief that Brooks Koepka can still be found at prices of 28-1 at Pinehurst. Of course, ten years ago, this very venue provided American golf fans with their first look at a player who would quickly become the most decorated golfer of his generation.

Now a 34-year-old veteran, Brooks will look to finish the job he started on North Carolina soil as a fresh-faced rookie and pair his three PGA Championship titles with a third U.S. Open. Since coming fourth here back in 2014, Koepka has just one U.S. Open finish worse than 18th in eight successive starts -- including two wins at Erin Hills and Shinnecock and a runner-up to Gary Woodland at Pebble Beach.

For a player of Koepka's caliber, there isn't such a thing as a moral victory at a Major Championship, and given his form coming into the PGA last month, Koepka himself would have lamented his lack of relevance in his title defense. Despite touting him myself at 22-1, however, I give Brooks a pass for a mundane 26th-place finish, as Valhalla's receptive conditions softened the consequences for middling shots and encouraged a much more aggressive approach than Brooks has used in his five Major wins to date. Koepka did, however, manage to gain strokes in all four major categories that week, and has a win and top tens on the LIV Tour over his last three starts.

With the game clearly in a good place for an injury-free Koepka, Pinehurst presents another golden opportunity to add to his historic trophy cabinet. Brooks has repeatedly stated how much he relishes the grind of a difficult Major Championship venue, and this week, that mentality will aid him as much as any other. Along with Scottie himself, Brooks's ability to separate from the pack is the most magnified as conditions get tougher and lesser players are weeded out through poor decision-making, course management, or lack of preparation for the moment. Pinehurst seems as good a track as any for Koepka to fully flex those intangibles, and he's absolutely worth a shot as a relative afterthought on betting boards.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Bryson DeChambeau (50-1)

GOLF SHOT!

Bryson with an early walk. #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/QS5En1MBM3

— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) May 19, 2024

The macro-stand we've taken on Bryson in 2024 has very nearly paid off at each of the first two Major Championships, and given his relative lack of success at The Open to this point in his career, Pinehurst may well be Bryson's best remaining chance of the season to add a second Major Championship to his illustrious trophy case.

Of course, on the surface, Pinehurst No. 2 doesn't draw a lot of comparisons with the course on which he initially broke his Major seal four years ago, but as Bryson has said repeatedly in the press -- the man has changed as much as anything over this five-year journey of physiologic, emotional, and even spiritual growth. On the golf side of things, Bryson is no longer the one-note tune we saw out of COVID in 2020: a player who did possess immense power, yes, but was often left befuddled by some of the Tour's more nuanced, positional venues.

Since last summer however (with the help of his new Krank driver), DeChambeau has been able to morph himself into an incredible total driver of the golf ball. He's improved his accuracy marks on LIV by over 4% since last summer's Greenbrier, and in his last four Major Appearances, DeChambeau has lapped the field in Total Driving: gaining a total of 24.1 shots off of the tee since last year's U.S. Open in Los Angeles.

The approach numbers have been stellar as well: gaining an average of 2.5 strokes on Approach in his last four Major starts, and last month at Valhalla, Bryson recorded the second-best short-game week of his entire career: gaining over nine shots on and around the greens for the week. The words "strategy" and "boring" even came out at Bryson's Tuesday press conference when explaining his approach to this week: two things you'd never have thought you'd hear after Bryson debuted his powerful, ultra-aggressive formula into the 2020 season. Maybe a venue like Pinehurst is coming at the perfect time for this new, more grounded, placid version of Bryson DeChambeau -- and if he's able to exceed expectations this week, I'll be running to the window for more futures stock.

Cameron Smith (55-1)

After a first round 67, Cameron Smith opens with a birdie on the first.👊#TeamTitleistpic.twitter.com/1hggbN2Bzp

— Titleist (@Titleist) July 15, 2022

Although a final round 80 in LIV Houston initially made me skittish on Cam Smith's prospects, the market undergoing an even more drastic correction has me more than willing to bet into the Aussie's upside at this venue. Once one of the more buzz-worthy names on U.S. Open future boards, Smith's price has tanked more than 20 points in some spots as the week has progressed -- and at this point, doesn't full encompass his long-term upside in such a short-game intensive spot.

Cam rates out as the best Bermudagrass putter in this field dating back to 2021, he's gained an incredible 12.6 shots around the greens in eight Major Championship rounds this season, and dating back to last year's U.S. Open in Los Angeles, Smith has actually been a net-positive driver of the ball over his last four Major starts.

Cam can also lean on a historic affinity for similarly constructed Major Championship venues -- winning on an incredibly firm St. Andrews two years ago on a week which demanded creativity around the greens and elite lag putting above all else. He's also recorded top fives at Chambers Bay and LACC: two other nontraditional U.S. Open venues that feature some added width in the fairways and a ton of short grass around the greens. And finally, who could forget his track record at Augusta National -- a course which might prove to be the best one-to-one comparison to Pinehurst in terms of yearly Tour stops. Smith has finished inside the top 10 in five of eight Masters appearances, and will face a similar challenge of long-iron play into firm, severely sloped green complexes.

Even at the best of times, Cameron Smith has been far from the most reliable projection on a weekly basis -- but he has proven since his 2022 breakout that he is capable of mixing it up with the best players on the planet if the venue suits him. After speaking with my guy Byron last night, I've come to the conclusion that I overreacted to one bad round on an exhibition Tour. Cam is more than capable of making the trip from the outhouse to the penthouse on golf's grandest stage.

Hideki Matsuyama (60-1)

Hideki Matsuyama pitches it in for birdie on 12 to move 6-under. 🔥

🎥 @PGAChampionship | #PGAChamppic.twitter.com/c81YwRgVEw

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 17, 2024

The betting board drops off quite a bit after the first 7-8 names -- and as these depressed prices would indicate, the many marquee names that reside past 40-1 often come with more questions than answers. At 55-1, however, Hideki Matsuyama does present a very compelling case as the biggest value on current betting boards. As has unfortunately become a tradition for the Japanese No. 1 in recent years, injury concerns have stifled his prospects at the year's first two Majors -- and kept him completely out of two marquee events at Harbour Town and Quail Hollow.

But last week at Muirfield Village, Matsuyama finally showed glimpses of the form, which had many touting him at prices of 20-1 at Augusta National. Hideki gained over three and a half shots on approach and 6.1 from tee-to-green in an eighth-place finish at the Memorial, recording the fourth-best cumulative score in the field over the final three days.

With that performance and a clean bill of health, Hideki will now enter the year's third Major Championship with the best value proposition we've seen since his win at 80-1 at the Genesis Invitational this past February. Pinehurst's combination of long-iron play and short-game skill will suit Matsuyama's game to a tee, as Hideki still ranks first on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens and sixth in Proximity from beyond 175.

Of course, in the two months leading up to the year's first Major Championship, Matsuyama recorded marquee finishes of 1st, 12th, and sixth at elevated events in Los Angeles, Orlando, and Ponte Vedra -- proving that at his best, he's still more than capable of mixing it up with the best players on the planet. At 55-1, I don't think you can find a much more compelling case to tackle the titans at the top of this week's betting board.

Wyndham Clark (90-1)

Wyndham Clark gave us an all-time club twirl on 18 yesterday.

Can he win his first major today? pic.twitter.com/iYFbNrr85q

— Splash Sports (@splashsports_) June 18, 2023

In a similar vein to Cameron Smith above, this write-up doesn't come without some inherent risk of complete implosion. Things haven't been pretty for the defending U.S. Open Champion since he was famously the most popular play of the week at 18-1 in Charlotte. However, if we're willing to look past the current form, Clark's long-term skillset should be tailor made for Pinehurst (and U.S. Open's in general to come).

There isn't a single player in this range who comes close to matching Wyndham's combination of off-the-tee dominance at long golf courses, upside with his approach play at long-iron intensive venues, and a short game that's proven time and time again it can single-handedly carry him to relevance on weeks where the ball-striking isn't quite operating at full capacity.

I know it's difficult to back a player with an incoming form sheet of MC, MC, 47th, but if he'd have shown any semblance of life through the last month, Clark could well be sitting at one-third of his current outright price. I'm personally willing to take the chance. If there's anywhere he can turn his season around, a 7,600-yard golf course that projects as one of the most difficult on Tour rates out as one of the most likely canvases.

Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!

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