RADIO
Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at TPC Craig Ranch. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson outright betting card.
The seven names on this betting card are aimed at returning about six times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 23 outright winners (a 20.9% hit rate) for a profit of over $15,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 39.7%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. Still, suppose you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process. In that case, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Byron Nelson!
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2024 Byron Nelson Betting Card
Byeong-Hun An (30-1)
Byeong-Hun An plays an absolute beauty from 271 yards out on 18 to set up eagle. 🤌🦅
📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @TheSentry pic.twitter.com/VSYAL6u0B2
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 6, 2024
Although he's joined by a fleet of more marquee names this week, Byeong-Hun An is the man I'm pinning my hopes on to carry the flag for Korea at his honorary "home" event. After a brutally bad stretch of golf three years ago that saw him fall from a playoff mainstay all the way to the Korn Ferry Tour, Ben has re-established himself as one of the Tour's most consistent performers thus far in 2024. Through 11 starts this season, An has missed just two cuts, he's racked up six top 25s, and perhaps more importantly, he's displayed hints of the ball-striking prowess that gained him so much notoriety within the golf-betting space in the late 2010s.
Over the last six months, Ben ranks second in this field in driving distance, third in weighted proximity, first in Birdie or Better Percentage, and fourth in Birdie Chances Created. Ben also possesses an adept touch around the greens that makes him an elite Par 5 performer, and although he's had his share of struggles keeping the ball in play with his elite speed, the generous confines here in Dallas should suit his distance-intensive approach to a tee. In fact, the 3.9 strokes he gained with his driver here last year marked the fifth-best driving performance of his entire season -- resulting in a 14th-place finish despite losing over two strokes to the field on the greens.
Of course, putting woes aren't exactly an isolated occurrence for the Seoul native, as An has combined to lose a mind-numbing 11.8 strokes between Harbour Town and San Antonio over his last two PGA starts. However, from an overarching perspective, in 2024 as a whole, An has experienced one of the most consistent runs he's had in his career on the greens. He's gained strokes in six of 10 starts, and bentgrass has always provided his best long-term putting returns.
Keep in mind that just last month, An finished eighth at the star-studded Arnold Palmer Invitational as a slightly better-than-average putter for the week (+0.8). With the tee-to-green acumen he's consistently shown over the last 12 months, it won't take much help from the flat stick for Ben to make his way back into contention. Currently priced at 30-1, I don't believe An should be treated as the afterthought he currently is on the odds board. He's got every bit of the same chance as his fellow countrymen to wear the CJ Cup crown.
Adam Scott (30-1)
The perfect roll.
Adam Scott finishes with a birdie on 18. pic.twitter.com/tWWDxqD753
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 17, 2024
In a field where no truly elite names reside, Adam Scott stands as one of the week's most faultless profiles. The veteran Australian is the only player in this field to rate inside the top 25 in Total Driving, Weighted Proximity, and SG: Putting, and an 8th-place finish here last season gives us further confirmation that he's got the game to handle the frenzied scoring pace we expect.
In fact, many of Scott's best recent results have come on more score-able setups (Port Royal, Sedgefield, and Scottsdale), and in his last competitive appearance at Augusta National, Scott delivered his best ball-striking performance in over two months (+3.92 SG: APP). With five top 25's and just one missed cut to this point in 2024, Scott has quietly been one of the PGA Tour's most consistent performers. With so many question marks at the top of this betting board, that sort of reliability is worth its weight in gold -- especially at an outright price of 30-1.
Min Woo Lee (33-1)
Min Woo Lee cooked up an absolute MONSTER birdie putt on 17 👨🍳🐥#THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/UyNpwmoiHd
— National Club Golfer (@NCG_com) March 15, 2024
We've long awaited the week in which the 25-year-old Min Woo Lee achieves his first stateside breakthrough, and despite a rather sluggish 2024 to this point, I believe the rather benign links of TPC Craig Ranch can provide the perfect backdrop. Over the course of his career, the uber-talented Aussie has established himself as a name to watch on some of the world's most prodigious birdie parties. He notched two wins last fall at the Macau Open and Australian PGA Championship: recording scores of 30 and 20-under, respectively. He also finished T9 at last year's Travelers Championship, a star-studded elevated event with a winning score of 23-under, and earlier this spring, he came runner-up to Austin Eckroat at the softest rendition of PGA National we've ever seen.
With his elite length, Min Woo has the tools to dominate this leaderboard off-the-tee, he carries one of the highest short-game ceilings on the PGA Tour, and leads this field in Par Five Scoring over his last 50 rounds. In addition, Min Woo has recorded some of his best career approach weeks on layouts that require an abundance of long-irons (PGA National, Bay Hill, LACC), and ranks 27th on Tour in Birdie or Better Percentage from over 200 yards.
Fresh off of his second career top 25 finish at Augusta National just two weeks ago (finishing 11th in Total Ball-Striking in the process), there may not be a more perfect venue for Min Woo to keep cooking than right here at Craig Ranch. I don't see a world where he isn't among the top drivers of the ball this week, and the approach distributions are as tailor-made for his profile as anywhere else on Tour. If the putter can morph back into the weapon that's long-carried Min Woo into the conversation of top-tier golfing prospects, we could finally see him join the likes of Tom Kim, Akshay Bhatia, and Ludvig Aberg as a PGA Tour winner.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Tom Hoge (35-1)
Tom Hoge chips it in for birdie on the 7th. 👏
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/bjYG1MTjMz
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) April 20, 2024
It's not often you're able to get one of the best iron players on the planet at 35-1 at a tournament like the Byron Nelson, but through four months of 2024, this is exactly where Tom Hoge sits in the season-long rankings. The 1.035 strokes per round that Hoge has gained with his approach play isn't just the second-best mark currently on the PGA Tour (behind only Scottie Scheffler), it would also sit as one of the best iron seasons we've seen in the last five years.
Hoge has been a world-class iron player for some time, s0 it will come as no surprise to golf fans that he rates out at the top of this field in SG: Approach, Birdie Chances Created, and Weighted Proximity, but the facet of the game that really projects to put him over the top this week has been in his recent strides made on the greens. Over his last 50 rounds, Hoge ranks 15th in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting, he's gained strokes on the greens in nine of his last ten starts, and over the last five weeks, he's gained an average of 1.9 strokes per round with the flat stick.
Notably, Hoge also recorded the best driving week of his 2023 season right here at Craig Ranch (+2.5 SG: OTT), and has already recorded seven top 20 finishes in twelve 2024 starts. Every underlying stat seems to have Hoge marked for a second PGA Tour win very very soon. Why not an hour down the road from his alma mater of TCU?
Keith Mitchell (40-1)
🚨⛳️🦅 CASHMERE KEITH MITCHELL EAGLE. SOLO LEAD! ☢️
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) March 23, 2024
Another elite ball-striker who seems destined for a second Tour win, it's hard to believe Keith Mitchell remains priced in the 40-1 range in a field devoid of any currently in-form elites. Mitchell has showcased his typically elite driving prowess (currently sixth on Tour in SG: OTT), but has also morphed himself into one of the premier iron players in this field as well. He's gained strokes on approach in each of his last seven starts (+3.32/tournament), ranks second in this field in Birdie Chances Created and fourth in Weighted Proximity.
A putting slump has kept him out of the winners circle to this point in the new season, but Mitchell has historically hovered right around tour average on the greens. The ball-striking splits are clearly there if those splits can normalize, and Craig Ranch's putting surfaces rate out among the easiest courses on Tour to navigate. I'm more than willing to take the chance at 40-1.
Kevin Yu (90-1)
Now that’s a swing with power 💥
Leader Chun-An Yu is away in round two of the #AusOpenGolf #PGATA pic.twitter.com/afNycEO1zH
— PGA of Australia (@PGAofAustralia) December 5, 2019
Much of my content this week (including many of the write-ups above), has tirelessly reiterated the importance of elite driving distance/long iron play, and as we move into the long shot portion of the odds board, there are two players I've identified as having the tools required to contend around this length-intensive venue.
First of which is Kevin Yu: the former blue-chip prospect out of Arizona State who has quietly emerged as one of the PGA Tour's most ascendant tee-to-green talents. Over the last six months, only Keith Mitchell has recorded a better ball-striking run than Yu, and last month in San Antonio, the Taiwan-native gained an eye-popping 12.4 strokes to the field with his driving and iron play.
Those are figures that most players in this range could only dream of, and with three top ten finishes already to his name in 2024, Yu has shown some top-end upside in similarly beleaguered fields (American Express, Cognizant Classic, etc.). I have high hopes for the future of this 25-year-old, and at 90-1 on a course where he can fully flex his long-game prowess is as good a spot as I've seen for that breakthrough victory.
Peter Kuest (105-1)
354-yard drive
200 yards ➡️ 4 feet
EagleMonday qualifier @Peter_Kuest overpowers the 554-yard par 5 and is just one back @RocketClassic. pic.twitter.com/63wRFKYVru
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 1, 2023
As I mentioned in Kevin Yu's write-up, my interest in players past 80-1 in this field is entirely centered upon their possession of a few key tools. Peter Kuest checks virtually every box you could want at a nearly 7,500 yard golf course with winning scores projected to sit in the mid-20s. First and foremost: Kuest has some positive history here at TPC Craig Ranch: finishing in a tie for 14th last year on the back of his best driving (+6.3)/putting (+4.9) performance of his professional career.
Kuest clearly has power to burn around this driver-intensive layout (5th in driving distance), he was sneakily a top 10 putter on the PGA Tour last season, and he rates out as an elite long-iron player: sixth in Strokes Gained per shot from >200 yards over the last 12 months. Coming in on the back of consecutive top 10 finishes at Valero and Corales, I think we're getting a gift of a price on a player who proved last summer that he's more than capable of sustaining multiple weeks of hot form.
Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!
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