Spencer Aguiar's 2024 NFL Mock Draft (Version 1.0) - First Round with Trades

Less than a month before the 2024 NFL Draft, which will take place in Detroit, Michigan, I have decided to crawl out from inside my golf hole and get back into the world of NFL mock drafting and player profiles.

As many of you know, I got into this space initially to cover things from an NFL perspective before shifting full-time into the PGA Tour landscape. That doesn't mean I still don't do specialty pieces throughout the year to handicap different topics that pique my curiosity. However, consider me Sin City Spencer, the golf handicapper who randomly lets you know if we have less than six more weeks before the draft is about to take place.

My only hope is that we have a better success rate than the other alliterated groundhog in Punxsutawney Phil. A 50/50 proposition that has you picking the correct answer only 39% of the time is not a great look when you have chosen continued winter in 108 of 129 chances. That would be like me choosing a draft to start quarterback, quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. Let's get a little more creative! Oh, wait...

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Round 1

1. Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams - Quarterback, USC

Nothing is ever a given until the name is announced, but most sportsbooks have drifted Caleb Williams' odds to be the number selection all the way into the range of a -4000 bet. That means you would need to risk $4,000 to win $100 on the USC product going first overall.

Williams is a tantalizing prospect who delivered 8,170 yards passing during his final two years in college, adding a TD/INT breakdown of 72 scores and only 10 interceptions. Add to that 21 rushing touchdowns, and you start to see why most in the space are so excited about Williams' potential.

The real drawback many have mentioned for the 22-year-old came down to his propensity to play "hero ball" in 2023 during what became an overall struggle for USC to defend anything, including their QB. Still, his 8.6% difference in pressure-to-sack rate on first-second down (16.1%) versus the 24.7% total on third down should highlight a savvy quarterback that realized extending plays in must-have situations wasn't the same detriment it would be in early-down spots.

My model graded Williams as the best QB prospect I have tracked since starting this adventure in 2021.

 

2. Washington Commanders - Drake Maye - Quarterback, UNC

Speculation has steadily poured in for the past few weeks on Jayden Daniels being the pick over Drake Maye. However, it does feel similar to what we experienced in 2023, with every quarterback in consideration getting mentioned at the second slot other than the ultimate pick. Maye started this process as the locked-in second choice, just like C.J. Stroud, and it is going to take something more than conjecture to move me away from this selection.

None of that is to say that my model is as bullish on Maye as Stroud when it comes to hit rate, but it is very easy to paint a picture of how Maye thrives in the NFL and becomes a better pro-style QB than a college performer.

The UNC product posted top marks in the class for Average Depth of Target last season at 11 yards, a big-time throw rate for his career at 8.1%, all while seeing the most significant drop rate of any of the eight main prospects in this year's draft.

Terry McLaurin would be a welcome site on the outside for someone looking to light the field on fire with every throw.

 

3. New England Patriots - Jayden Daniels - Quarterback, LSU

Is there an outside chance that the New England Patriots end up falling in love with Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix and decide to trade back to acquire more draft capital? Possibly. But for a team that needs playmakers and speed, why not get that exact profile from your quarterback?

It has been widely reported that former New England Head Coach Bill Belichick loved Jayden Daniels and was going to do everything in his power to ensure he secured his rights in the draft. It remains to be seen if Belichick's protege Jerod Mayo has the same viewpoint, but Daniels is a game-changing athlete who also excelled in 2023 because of his deep-ball potential.

I wanted to compare only the QBs in 2021 and 2024 because both groups experienced buzz in the process and were deemed "generational" quarterback classes for those at the top of the board.

As we know, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trey Lance flamed out early. I was trying to determine if there was a corollary return for why each did, and there were some concerns that poor pressure-to-sack production equated to inferior results on the field.

The fact that only Daniels made the bottom six from elite prospects this year tells me that 2024 has a better group than we had in 2021. Still, there are concerns that the game ends up being too quick for Daniels, who saw a massive production increase in 2023 versus his career totals when he got to play with top-15 prospects in Malik Nabers and BrIan Thomas Jr.

My model still loves Daniels' upside if he pops, but it would be malpractice to exclude the main factor that end up causing him to miss if he does in his career.

 

4. Minnesota Vikings (From Arizona Cardinals) - J.J. McCarthy - Quarterback, Michigan

TRADE ALERT

The hiccup here is that I don't know if two 1s are enough to get the job done from Minnesota to go from 11 to four.

I decided to find a middle ground where Minnesota added their 2025 first-round pick to acquire an early second this season. That 35th pick might be a little too much since a third could also get the job done, but we are splitting hairs if these teams want to work out a deal. Each has adequate selections to mix and match to make this work.

I don't know if I have ever seen a quarterback with this many supporters and detractors. Some in the industry believe he isn't worth a first-round pick. An additional portion will land him as the QB2 in this draft because his weighted statistical form does outweigh the counting stats that showed him to be a game manager who threw 34 total passes in the fourth quarter all season and only 110 in the second half.

Let's not forget Michigan dominated their competition all year en route to McCarthy spending most fourth quarters on the bench resting his arm for the NFL. In my opinion, this was never a case of Jim Harbough shading exposure away from McCarthy because he didn't trust him in critical moments.

McCarthy dominated on third-down plays in 2023, providing over a 70% completion rate, which becomes more pronounced when you realize he experienced the second-largest drop rate of any of the main quarterbacks in this year's draft.

Sure, there are turnover-worthy plays you can clip to find the bad, but his 90% adjusted completion percentage gave me a quality NFL starter who deserves to go inside the top five.

 

5. Los Angeles Chargers - Marvin Harrison Jr. - Wide Receiver, Ohio State

In a world where Minnesota and Arizona can't work out a deal, I assume it is because the Cardinals end up standing pat and taking Harrison Jr., but how do you not take the game-breaking talent at a position of need when Harrison falls into your lap?

I believe there is a lot of truth in the fact that Jim Harbough wanted to trade back and accumulate extra assets before selecting an offensive lineman. It would make logical sense after talking about how he coached Michigan to be a run-heavy team that won in the trenches, but let's not forget that Harbough also got first-row seats yearly and had to gameplan against Marvin Harrison Jr when they would face Ohio State.

Harrison's 3.44 Yards Per Route Run is elite, and that is before we even note that over 16% of his routes resulted in double coverage.

Harrison Jr. is the best non-QB prospect in this class.

 

6. New York Giants - Rome Odunze - Wide Receiver, Washington

When did the New York Giants last have a dynamic wide receiver? When they took Odell Beckham Jr. out of LSU.

Every line movement in this situation points toward the Giants grabbing fellow LSU WR Malik Nabers. However, a solid argument exists that Rome Odunze fits the system better than Nabers.

PFF had Nabers account for 53.6% of his 2023 snaps in the slot. Odunze showed an ability to shift around himself, but the difference is that he only lined up in that area of the field 17.4% of the time.

There is nothing to say that you can't move Nabers around as the Vikings did with Justin Jefferson, mainly since Nabers' 50/50 split pails compared to Jefferson being almost 100% slot-centric. That said, I don't love the idea of Wan'Dale Robinson losing snaps in the slot when 78.2% of his output came in that area during the 2023 season.

The three wideouts may be closer on some team's boards than many believe.

 

7. Tennesse Titants - Joe Alt - Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

While Brian Callahan didn't have the ultimate say in the decision when he was the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021, the team did decide to select wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase over offensive tackle Penei Sewell.

I am sure both teams ended up feeling good about their decision, but after the Titans went out in free agency and grabbed Calvin Ridley for that anticipated Chase-type role, my money is on them protecting quarterback Will Levis.

Alt ended up grading as the number one pass protector in the 2024 draft, highlighted by a two-year run that only saw him allow one sack and four hits. That sort of protection will quickly allow the Titans to see what they have in Levis since the wide receiver room is already stout with Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins.

 

8. Arizona Cardinals - (From Atlanta Falcons) - Malik Nabers - Wide Receiver, LSU

TRADE ALERT

We saw this last season with Arizona Cardinals' GM Monti Ossenfort. Ossenfort traded the third overall selection for the 12th pick before moving back up to sixth and selecting offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr.

The Cardinals are in an ideal spot this season to make the same push on this board if the team values all three wide receivers in a similar tier and don't mind aggressively moving back and then up to acquire some extra talent.

With his 12.2-yard Average Depth of Target and 50% career Contested Catch Rate, Nabers is a hyper-dynamic pass-catcher who could thrive in a Kyler Murray offense that allows for plays to be extended.

 

9. Chicago Bears - Olumuyiwa Fashanu - Offensive Tackle, Penn State

How do you prevent Caleb Williams from having to play "hero ball?" You beef up the offensive line and give him extra protection in the pocket. 

I do think there is some route this draft plays out where the Bears would like to trade down and select either Olumuyiwa Fashanu or Troy Fautanu. Both are incredible in pass protection and would bolster the line, although it seems like Fashanu has two things going for him when push comes to shove. No pun intended. 

1. Troy Fautanu has had mixed reviews on whether he is better suited for left tackle or a move to guard. It feels like a lot of capital to invest when you stand pat and pick.
2. Olumuyiwa Fashunu was Caleb Williams' left tackle in high school. 

Let's give Williams some familiarity during his rookie season.

 

10. New York Jets - Brock Bowers - Tight End, Georgia

If the New York Jets weren't in a win-now mode, I could see them taking an offensive tackle like Taliese Fuaga or Troy Fautanu to strengthen the line for the future.

It is still possible that they ultimately go this route, but I will say the team feels as if they did what they needed to during the offseason when they signed top-10 caliber options on both the left and right sides in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses.

Everyone wants to talk about how drafting a tight end in the top 10 of the draft loses some of its luxury since it would make Brock Bowers one of the highest-paid players at the position, but does it really matter when you have a 40-year-old quarterback racing against Father Time?

Bowers' ability to move around the field and create yards after the catch will be a real-life fantasy for Rodgers, who gets the high handed to him without having to enter a darkness retreat.

 

11. Atlanta Falcons - Dallas Turner - Defensive Edge, Alabama

Dallas Turner is -200 to be the first defensive player taken in the draft ($200 to win $100), and the Falcons are -250 to select someone on the defensive line or edge ($250 to win $100).

Those pieces seem easy to assemble here at 11 for a team who managed to move back three spots and still get the player they would have selected at eight.

Turner's ability to create pressure on a quarterback graded near the top of the class in all main areas, including a 90.7 True Pass Rush grade and a 19.6% Win Rate.

 

12. Pittsburgh Steelers - Taliese Fuaga (From Denver Broncos) - Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

TRADE ALERT

With the Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals all favored to select an offensive tackle before the Pittsburgh Steelers get a chance to pick, Steel City does what needs to be done to move up in this year's draft.

With neither starting offensive tackle listed inside the top 60 in PFF grades last season, this classic debate in the article between Troy Fautanu and Taliese Fuaga will finally end here, with the Steelers deciding to go with the better run blocker between the two in Fuaga.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders - Terrion Arnold - Cornerback, Alabama

Head coach Antonio Pierce is searching for size and high-end talent, making this the perfect selection for the Raiders, who are forced to play a little defense if they want to defend Patrick Mahomes' air-raid attack.

Pierce was seen having an in-depth conversation with Arnold during Alabama's Pro-Day to further add to the speculation that he wants to go corner in round one.

14. New Orleans Saints - Troy Fautanu - Offensive Tackle, Washington

The Saints need offensive help.

Trevor Penning has yet to click as the team hoped. Ryan Ramczyk isn't progressing from injury as quickly as required and could be out all 2024. All of that allows the Saints to draft for anywhere along the line, although a right tackle is the most pressing need if you believe Ramczyk's news is as dire as it seems.

JC Latham makes a ton of sense because of his athletic and coordinated movement on the right side of the line, but it is hard to imagine that Troy Fautanu makes it much further than this after crushing his Pro Day. Look for his ability to move across both sides of the line and play guard to be too much for the Saints to bypass.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts - Quinyon Mitchell - Cornerback, Toledo

Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed getting scooped in a potential Kansas City/Indianapolis trade wasn't ideal. It became even worse when the eventual Chiefs deal took place with a division rival in Tennessee getting the talents of Sneed for only a third-round pick.

All four teams in the AFC South have quietly become the location of some of the young talent at the quarterback position, and the Colts will need to keep up with their secondary, taking the best player in zone coverage from the draft in Quinyon Mitchell.

 

16. Philadelphia Eagles - (From Seattle Seahawks) - Jared Verse - Edge, Florida State

TRADE ALERT

The specifics of this deal might need to be changed marginally, but there are no better trade partners in this draft than Seattle and Philadelphia.

The Seahawks typically like to have eight-plus draft picks each year (currently are at seven) and possess one of the widest gaps between their first pick and second choice (16th versus 81st).

The Eagles will be looking to add to their pass rush with one of the elite talents in this class after trading Haason Reddick to the New York Jets for a conditional third-round pick in 2026.

There is a chance they could stay where they are and hope to land either Verse or Laiatu Latu, but medical concerns on Latu drive the Eagles up the board to get the safer bet.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr. - Wide Receiver, LSU

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals - Amarius Mims - Offensive Tackle, Georgia

At almost 6'8" and 340 pounds, Amarius Mims' ceiling has him ready to hit his head through the roof. 

The lack of production over the past two seasons can be chalked up to his time at a top-tiered program and red flags with injuries, but the Bengals need help on the right side of the line to go alongside Trent Brown on the left (11th out of 81 in PFF grade). 

If Mims can hit that potential, Joe Burrow will finally have much-needed protection.

 

19. Los Angeles Rams - Chop Robinson - Defensive Edge, Penn State

One of the most popular picks for mock drafts has become Byron Murphy II to replace Aaron Donald on the line. While I understand the fit for a team that lost one of the greatest players of all time to retirement during the offseason, Kobie Turner and Bobby Brown III have become great values at the position for the team and give the Rams a little more wiggle room to go in multiple directions if they so choose.

With an edge room that failed to generate much intrigue last season, Los Angeles moves out of state away from injury-ridden Laiatu Latu and toward Chop Robinson, another one of the most gifted athletes in this year's draft.

 

20. Denver Broncos - Michael Penix Jr. - Quarterback, Washington

It isn't a prototypical move to trade down into the draft before selecting a QB, but this isn't quite your standard year.

According to public perception, seven teams desperately need to grab a quarterback. The Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, and Minnesota Vikings accomplish that goal by getting their man in the top four, leaving the Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos and New York Giants still searching as we get here to pick 20.

You only make this trade back if Sean Payton is comfortable with either Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix. Still, a couple of additional seconds over the next two years will  make this more tangible for a team that desperately needs playmakers all over the field.

Penix would give the Broncos a blend of deep-ball ability and pocket awareness.

 

21. Miami Dolphins - Byron Murphy - Defensive Line, Texas

JC Latham, Jackson Powers Johnson and Graham Barton would all be natural selections for the Miami Dolphins if they choose to add to their offensive line.

While I wouldn't discredit that possibility since it is favored in all betting markets, does the team want the sixth lineman off the board or the top defensive tackle?

At some point, taking value when it fills a position of need is just as important.

 

22. Seattle Seahawks - JC Latham - Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Veteran George Fant has been a hybrid tackle who can play both sides of the line for Seattle. Charles Cross hasn't entirely met expectations after going ninth overall in the 2022 draft on the left side of the line. However, you have enough in those areas to take a name like JC Latham, an option that can fill in at right tackle but may be best suited for the guard position.

Latham's ability to play quicker than his weight was pronounced when diving into some games, giving the Seahawks value here after the Bama product failed to do any testing during the process.

 

23. Arizona Cardinals - Nate Wiggins - Cornerback, Clemson

After adding blue-chip prospect Malik Nabers in the top 10 and still having an additional selection later in the first-round, the Cardinals look to attack with two top-end defensive prospects at 23 and 27.

Wiggins' weight and size will have some questions, but we saw him crush the combine when you remove the known intangible issues like height and weight.

His 44.4% Passer Rating in 2023 was elite.

 

24. Dallas Cowboys - Adonai Mitchell - Wide Receiver, Texas

There is a chance Jerry Jones could get enamored by the "toolsy" Laiatu Latu to pair alongside Michah Parsons. Still, it is hard to imagine that the team feels comfortable entering the season with a wide receiver room of CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert.

There is enough talent in this draft at the position that the team could hope someone they like falls to 56 in the second round, but look for them to add a more prominent option on the outside to combat Lamb and Cooks rotating in the slot an aggregated total of 94.5% of their snaps.

Both Texas products can provide that outside potential, but the 6'4" Mitchell would give the team something they don't have currently.

 

25. Green Bay Packers - Cooper DeJean - Cornerback, Iowa

Everyone wants to mock an offensive tackle to the Packers, but I will deviate from the norm and go with some secondary coverage for a team that desperately needs someone to play next to Jaire Alexander.

Offensive tackle Graham Barton would be a natural fit if they do decide to go that route because his best NFL fit is likely at center—the position the Packers need most on the line. However, the Packers love quality RAS scores, and you get that from a player who crushes the intangible outlook because of his combination of size and speed.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Laiatu Latu - Defensive Edge, UCLA

Medical concerns aside, there comes a time when grabbing value becomes too hard to avoid, and we have reached that point with Latu.

Latu can play a near-even split on either side of the defense and possesses some raw talent that can't be taught. Adding some size would only help to improve some of his traits, but it does feel like someone will take a swing for the fences once we enter the back end of the first.

There was a time Latu looked like a potential top-10 lock.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals - Jer'Zhan Newton - Defensive Tackle, Illinois

The Arizona Cardinals' defense had 33 sacks in 2023, the third-worst total in the league. If the team could acquire Jer'Zhan Newton, a prospect who delivered 64 pressures over the past two years from the interior of the line, we could work to grab some additional edge talent later in the draft.

28. Buffalo Bills - Xavier Worthy - Wide Receiver, Texas

Josh Allen, the quarterback with the strongest arm in the NFL, throwing passes to the quickest 40-time producer in combine history...

Sign me up!

The Curtis Samuel contract does muddle the wideout room since Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel bring similar qualities to the mix. However, it is essential to remember that the team has an out available on Stefon Diggs' contract at the end of the 2024 season.

Adding an elite weapon with speed could break this offense open for years to come.

Update: Stefon Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans and has further opened up the possibility to draft a WR

 

29. Detroit Lions - Kool-Aid McKinstry - Cornerback, Alabama

While Kool-Aid slipping may feel surprising after starting this process as a top-10 caliber pick, working together again with former Alabama teammate Brian Branch in the secondary helps Detroit form a sugary 1-2 punch that has gone from Crimson red to Lions blue.

We all know those were always the two best Kool-aid flavors when we were kids.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens - Graham Barton - Offensive Tackle, Duke

Outside of the security the Ravens possess at center with Tyler Linderbaum, the team needs to eventually find a few guards and offensive tackle prospects.

Barton would help to fill a need at guard right away and could turn into a long-term solution at tackle because of his versatility.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers - Malachi Corley - Wide Receiver, Western Kentucky

With rumors of the 49ers trading either Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, Kyle Shanahan has the chance to find his Deebo of the future in Malachi Corley.

Is this too early? Probably. But Corley has generated some buzz late in the process as one of those fringe round-one/round-two sleeper candidates.

His Yards After Catch (YAC) potential demonstrates an elite trait that Shanahan would love to secure for his roster.

 

32. Kansas City Chiefs - Tyler Guyton- Offensive Tackle, Oklahama

Some of the recent Rashee Rice news does add a wrinkle to the equation, but it is not as if the Chiefs have prioritized wide out in the past with their first selection.

Hollywood Brown adds a dynamic nature to the offense, and the team decides to protect their top asset of Mahomes rather than add an extra pass-catcher.

The line's interior was brilliant in 2023, but the outside tackles need to be revamped.

 

Mock 1.0 Results